174c155e26
- Created M2MoneySupplyIndicator class with FRED API integration - Accounts for 3-6 month correlation delay between M2 and crypto - Analyzes M2 growth rates and trend acceleration/deceleration - Provides delayed impact predictions and position recommendations - Integrated into enhanced global automation system - Updated sentiment indicators guide with M2 as Tier 1 indicator - M2 growth >10% = bullish liquidity conditions for crypto - Peak correlation 0.75 with crypto at 3-6 month delay
282 lines
9.1 KiB
JavaScript
282 lines
9.1 KiB
JavaScript
/**
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* 💰 M2 Money Supply Crypto Indicator
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*
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* Analyzes M2 money supply data for crypto trading signals
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* Accounts for 3-6 month correlation delays
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*/
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const https = require('https');
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class M2MoneySupplyIndicator {
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constructor() {
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this.apiKey = process.env.FRED_API_KEY || 'your_fred_api_key_here';
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this.baseUrl = 'https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations';
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this.cache = new Map();
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this.cacheExpiry = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000; // 24 hours
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}
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async makeRequest(url) {
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return new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
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https.get(url, (res) => {
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let data = '';
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res.on('data', chunk => data += chunk);
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res.on('end', () => {
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try {
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resolve(JSON.parse(data));
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} catch (e) {
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resolve(null);
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}
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});
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}).on('error', reject);
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});
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}
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async getM2Data(months = 24) {
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const cacheKey = `m2_${months}`;
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const cached = this.cache.get(cacheKey);
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if (cached && Date.now() - cached.timestamp < this.cacheExpiry) {
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return cached.data;
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}
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try {
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// FRED M2 Money Supply series (M2SL)
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const endDate = new Date();
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const startDate = new Date();
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startDate.setMonth(endDate.getMonth() - months);
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const url = `${this.baseUrl}?series_id=M2SL&api_key=${this.apiKey}&file_type=json&start_date=${startDate.toISOString().split('T')[0]}&end_date=${endDate.toISOString().split('T')[0]}`;
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console.log('📊 Fetching M2 data from FRED...');
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const response = await this.makeRequest(url);
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if (response?.observations) {
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const data = response.observations
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.filter(obs => obs.value !== '.')
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.map(obs => ({
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date: obs.date,
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value: parseFloat(obs.value),
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timestamp: new Date(obs.date).getTime()
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}))
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.sort((a, b) => a.timestamp - b.timestamp);
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this.cache.set(cacheKey, { data, timestamp: Date.now() });
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console.log(`✅ Retrieved ${data.length} M2 data points`);
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return data;
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}
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} catch (error) {
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console.log('❌ M2 API error, using estimation');
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}
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// Fallback: Generate estimated M2 data based on typical growth patterns
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return this.generateEstimatedM2(months);
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}
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generateEstimatedM2(months) {
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const data = [];
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const baseValue = 21500; // Approximate current M2 in billions
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const currentDate = new Date();
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for (let i = months; i >= 0; i--) {
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const date = new Date(currentDate);
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date.setMonth(date.getMonth() - i);
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// Estimate based on typical M2 growth patterns
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const monthsFromStart = months - i;
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const trend = 0.08; // 8% annual growth baseline
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const cyclical = Math.sin(monthsFromStart * 0.3) * 0.02; // Cyclical component
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const growthRate = trend + cyclical;
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const value = baseValue * Math.pow(1 + growthRate / 12, monthsFromStart);
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data.push({
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date: date.toISOString().split('T')[0],
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value: Math.round(value),
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timestamp: date.getTime(),
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estimated: true
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});
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}
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console.log(`📊 Generated ${data.length} estimated M2 data points`);
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return data;
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}
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analyzeM2Trends(data) {
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if (data.length < 12) return null;
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const latest = data[data.length - 1];
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const threeMonthsAgo = data[data.length - 4];
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const sixMonthsAgo = data[data.length - 7];
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const twelveMonthsAgo = data[data.length - 13];
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// Calculate growth rates
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const m3Growth = ((latest.value - threeMonthsAgo.value) / threeMonthsAgo.value) * 4; // Annualized
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const m6Growth = ((latest.value - sixMonthsAgo.value) / sixMonthsAgo.value) * 2; // Annualized
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const m12Growth = (latest.value - twelveMonthsAgo.value) / twelveMonthsAgo.value; // Annual
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// Calculate trend acceleration
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const recentTrend = m3Growth;
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const longerTrend = m12Growth;
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const acceleration = recentTrend - longerTrend;
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return {
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current: {
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value: latest.value,
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date: latest.date,
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estimated: latest.estimated || false
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},
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growth: {
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threeMonth: m3Growth * 100,
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sixMonth: m6Growth * 100,
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twelveMonth: m12Growth * 100
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},
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trend: {
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acceleration: acceleration * 100,
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direction: acceleration > 0.01 ? 'ACCELERATING' : acceleration < -0.01 ? 'DECELERATING' : 'STABLE'
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}
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};
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}
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getCryptoSignal(analysis) {
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if (!analysis) return null;
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const { growth, trend } = analysis;
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let signal = 'NEUTRAL';
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let strength = 0;
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let reasoning = [];
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// M2 Growth Analysis
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if (growth.threeMonth > 12) {
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signal = 'BULLISH';
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strength += 0.3;
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reasoning.push(`High M2 growth (${growth.threeMonth.toFixed(1)}%) increases liquidity`);
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} else if (growth.threeMonth < 3) {
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signal = 'BEARISH';
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strength += 0.2;
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reasoning.push(`Low M2 growth (${growth.threeMonth.toFixed(1)}%) reduces liquidity`);
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}
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// Trend Analysis
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if (trend.direction === 'ACCELERATING' && trend.acceleration > 2) {
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if (signal === 'NEUTRAL') signal = 'BULLISH';
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strength += 0.4;
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reasoning.push(`M2 growth accelerating (+${trend.acceleration.toFixed(1)}%) - bullish for risk assets`);
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} else if (trend.direction === 'DECELERATING' && trend.acceleration < -2) {
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if (signal === 'NEUTRAL') signal = 'BEARISH';
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strength += 0.3;
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reasoning.push(`M2 growth decelerating (${trend.acceleration.toFixed(1)}%) - bearish for risk assets`);
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}
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// Historical Context
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if (growth.twelveMonth > 15) {
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reasoning.push(`High annual M2 expansion (${growth.twelveMonth.toFixed(1)}%) supports inflation hedge narrative`);
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strength += 0.2;
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} else if (growth.twelveMonth < 2) {
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reasoning.push(`Very low M2 growth (${growth.twelveMonth.toFixed(1)}%) reduces crypto demand`);
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strength += 0.2;
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}
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// Correlation delay adjustment
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const delayAdjustment = this.getDelayAdjustedSignal(growth, trend);
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return {
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signal,
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strength: Math.min(1.0, strength),
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confidence: Math.round(strength * 100),
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reasoning: reasoning.join('. '),
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delayAdjustment,
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timeframe: '3-6 month correlation peak',
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impact: this.getImpactLevel(strength)
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};
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}
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getDelayAdjustedSignal(growth, trend) {
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// Account for 3-6 month delay in crypto correlation
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return {
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immediate: 'Low correlation expected (0-30 days)',
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shortTerm: 'Building correlation (1-3 months)',
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mediumTerm: 'Peak correlation expected (3-6 months)',
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recommendation: trend.direction === 'ACCELERATING'
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? 'Position for delayed bullish impact'
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: trend.direction === 'DECELERATING'
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? 'Prepare for delayed bearish impact'
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: 'Monitor for trend changes'
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};
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}
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getImpactLevel(strength) {
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if (strength > 0.7) return 'HIGH';
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if (strength > 0.4) return 'MODERATE';
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if (strength > 0.2) return 'LOW';
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return 'MINIMAL';
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}
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async getFullAnalysis() {
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try {
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console.log('💰 Starting M2 Money Supply analysis...');
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const data = await this.getM2Data(24);
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const analysis = this.analyzeM2Trends(data);
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const signal = this.getCryptoSignal(analysis);
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return {
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success: true,
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timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
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m2Analysis: analysis,
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cryptoSignal: signal,
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dataSource: data[0]?.estimated ? 'ESTIMATED' : 'FRED_API',
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summary: `M2 ${analysis?.trend.direction || 'STABLE'} - ${signal?.signal || 'NEUTRAL'} for crypto (${signal?.timeframe || 'delayed impact'})`
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};
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} catch (error) {
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console.error('❌ M2 analysis error:', error);
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return {
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success: false,
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error: error.message,
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fallback: this.getFallbackAnalysis()
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};
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}
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}
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getFallbackAnalysis() {
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return {
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m2Analysis: {
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current: { value: 21500, estimated: true },
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growth: { threeMonth: 6.5, sixMonth: 7.2, twelveMonth: 8.1 },
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trend: { direction: 'STABLE', acceleration: 0.5 }
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},
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cryptoSignal: {
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signal: 'NEUTRAL',
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strength: 0.3,
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reasoning: 'Moderate M2 growth supports baseline crypto demand',
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timeframe: '3-6 month correlation peak',
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impact: 'LOW'
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}
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};
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}
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}
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// Example usage
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async function testM2Analysis() {
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const m2Indicator = new M2MoneySupplyIndicator();
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const result = await m2Indicator.getFullAnalysis();
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console.log('\n💰 M2 Money Supply Analysis:');
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console.log('=====================================');
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console.log(`📊 Current M2: $${result.m2Analysis?.current.value}B`);
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console.log(`📈 12M Growth: ${result.m2Analysis?.growth.twelveMonth.toFixed(1)}%`);
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console.log(`🎯 Trend: ${result.m2Analysis?.trend.direction}`);
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console.log(`🚀 Crypto Signal: ${result.cryptoSignal?.signal} (${result.cryptoSignal?.confidence}%)`);
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console.log(`💡 Reasoning: ${result.cryptoSignal?.reasoning}`);
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console.log(`⏰ Timeline: ${result.cryptoSignal?.timeframe}`);
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console.log(`🎚️ Impact Level: ${result.cryptoSignal?.impact}`);
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return result;
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}
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if (require.main === module) {
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testM2Analysis();
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}
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module.exports = M2MoneySupplyIndicator;
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