feat: implement signal frequency penalties for flip-flop detection
PHASE 1 IMPLEMENTATION: Signal quality scoring now checks database for recent trading patterns and applies penalties to prevent overtrading and flip-flop losses. NEW PENALTIES: 1. Overtrading: 3+ signals in 30min → -20 points - Detects consolidation zones where system generates excessive signals - Counts both executed trades AND blocked signals 2. Flip-flop: Opposite direction in last 15min → -25 points - Prevents rapid long→short→long whipsaws - Example: SHORT at 10:00, LONG at 10:12 = blocked 3. Alternating pattern: Last 3 trades flip directions → -30 points - Detects choppy market conditions - Pattern like long→short→long = system getting chopped DATABASE INTEGRATION: - New function: getRecentSignals() in lib/database/trades.ts - Queries last 30min of trades + blocked signals - Checks last 3 executed trades for alternating pattern - Zero performance impact (fast indexed queries) ARCHITECTURE: - scoreSignalQuality() now async (requires database access) - All callers updated: check-risk, execute, reentry-check - skipFrequencyCheck flag available for special cases - Frequency penalties included in qualityResult breakdown EXPECTED IMPACT: - Eliminate overnight flip-flop losses (like SOL $141-145 chop) - Reduce overtrading during sideways consolidation - Better capital preservation in non-trending markets - Should improve win rate by 5-10% by avoiding worst setups TESTING: - Deploy and monitor next 5 signals in choppy markets - Check logs for frequency penalty messages - Analyze if blocked signals would have been losers Files changed: - lib/database/trades.ts: Added getRecentSignals() - lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Made async, added frequency checks - app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: await + symbol parameter - app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: await + symbol parameter - app/api/analytics/reentry-check/route.ts: await + skipFrequencyCheck
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@@ -555,6 +555,88 @@ export async function getBlockedSignalsForAnalysis(olderThanMinutes: number = 30
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})
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}
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/**
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* Get recent signals for frequency analysis
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* Used to detect overtrading, flip-flops, and chop patterns
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*/
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export async function getRecentSignals(params: {
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symbol: string
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direction: 'long' | 'short'
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timeWindowMinutes: number
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}): Promise<{
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totalSignals: number
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oppositeDirectionInWindow: boolean
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oppositeDirectionMinutesAgo?: number
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last3Trades: Array<{ direction: 'long' | 'short'; createdAt: Date }>
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isAlternatingPattern: boolean
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}> {
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const prisma = getPrismaClient()
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const timeAgo = new Date(Date.now() - params.timeWindowMinutes * 60 * 1000)
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// Get all signals for this symbol in the time window (including blocked signals)
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const [trades, blockedSignals] = await Promise.all([
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prisma.trade.findMany({
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where: {
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symbol: params.symbol,
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createdAt: { gte: timeAgo },
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},
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select: { direction: true, createdAt: true },
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orderBy: { createdAt: 'desc' },
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}),
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prisma.blockedSignal.findMany({
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where: {
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symbol: params.symbol,
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createdAt: { gte: timeAgo },
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},
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select: { direction: true, createdAt: true },
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orderBy: { createdAt: 'desc' },
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}),
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])
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// Combine and sort all signals
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const allSignals = [
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...trades.map(t => ({ direction: t.direction as 'long' | 'short', createdAt: t.createdAt })),
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...blockedSignals.map(b => ({ direction: b.direction as 'long' | 'short', createdAt: b.createdAt })),
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].sort((a, b) => b.createdAt.getTime() - a.createdAt.getTime())
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// Check for opposite direction in last 15 minutes
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const fifteenMinAgo = new Date(Date.now() - 15 * 60 * 1000)
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const oppositeInLast15 = allSignals.find(
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s => s.direction !== params.direction && s.createdAt >= fifteenMinAgo
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)
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// Get last 3 executed trades (not blocked signals) for alternating pattern check
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const last3Trades = await prisma.trade.findMany({
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where: { symbol: params.symbol },
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select: { direction: true, createdAt: true },
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orderBy: { createdAt: 'desc' },
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take: 3,
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})
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// Check if last 3 trades alternate (long → short → long OR short → long → short)
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let isAlternating = false
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if (last3Trades.length === 3) {
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const dirs = last3Trades.map(t => t.direction)
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isAlternating = (
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(dirs[0] !== dirs[1] && dirs[1] !== dirs[2] && dirs[0] !== dirs[2]) // All different in alternating pattern
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)
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}
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return {
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totalSignals: allSignals.length,
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oppositeDirectionInWindow: !!oppositeInLast15,
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oppositeDirectionMinutesAgo: oppositeInLast15
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? Math.floor((Date.now() - oppositeInLast15.createdAt.getTime()) / 60000)
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: undefined,
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last3Trades: last3Trades.map(t => ({
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direction: t.direction as 'long' | 'short',
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createdAt: t.createdAt
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})),
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isAlternatingPattern: isAlternating,
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}
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}
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/**
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* Disconnect Prisma client (for graceful shutdown)
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*/
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