docs: Update minimum quality score from 60 to 81 across documentation
- Updated .github/copilot-instructions.md key constraints and signal quality system description - Updated config/trading.ts minimum score from 60 to 81 with v8 performance rationale - Updated SIGNAL_QUALITY_SETUP_GUIDE.md intro to reflect 81 threshold - Updated SIGNAL_QUALITY_OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP.md current system section - Updated BLOCKED_SIGNALS_TRACKING.md quality score requirements Context: After v8 Money Line indicator deployed with 0.6% flip threshold, system achieving 66.7% win rate with average quality score 94.2. Raised minimum threshold from 60 to 81 to maintain exceptional selectivity. Current v8 stats: 6 trades, 4 wins, $649.32 profit, 94.2 avg quality Account growth: $540 → $1,134.92 (110% gain in 2-3 days)
This commit is contained in:
229
.github/copilot-instructions.md
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229
.github/copilot-instructions.md
vendored
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@
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**Key Constraints:**
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**Key Constraints:**
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- Can't afford extended drawdowns (limited capital)
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- Can't afford extended drawdowns (limited capital)
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- Must maintain 60%+ win rate to compound effectively
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- Must maintain 60%+ win rate to compound effectively
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- Quality over quantity - only trade 60+ signal quality scores (lowered from 65 on Nov 12, 2025)
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- Quality over quantity - only trade 81+ signal quality scores (raised from 60 on Nov 21, 2025 after v8 success)
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- After 3 consecutive losses, STOP and review system
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- After 3 consecutive losses, STOP and review system
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## Architecture Overview
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## Architecture Overview
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@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@
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- BTC and other symbols fall back to global settings (`MAX_POSITION_SIZE_USD`, `LEVERAGE`)
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- BTC and other symbols fall back to global settings (`MAX_POSITION_SIZE_USD`, `LEVERAGE`)
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- **Priority:** Per-symbol ENV → Market config → Global ENV → Defaults
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- **Priority:** Per-symbol ENV → Market config → Global ENV → Defaults
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**Signal Quality System:** Filters trades based on 5 metrics (ATR, ADX, RSI, volumeRatio, pricePosition) scored 0-100. Only trades scoring 60+ are executed (lowered from 65 after data analysis showed 60-64 tier outperformed higher scores). Scores stored in database for future optimization.
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**Signal Quality System:** Filters trades based on 5 metrics (ATR, ADX, RSI, volumeRatio, pricePosition) scored 0-100. Only trades scoring 81+ are executed (raised from 60 on Nov 21, 2025 after v8 proving 94.2 avg quality with 66.7% win rate). Scores stored in database for future optimization.
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**Timeframe-Aware Scoring:** Signal quality thresholds adjust based on timeframe (5min vs daily):
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**Timeframe-Aware Scoring:** Signal quality thresholds adjust based on timeframe (5min vs daily):
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- 5min: ADX 12+ trending (vs 18+ for daily), ATR 0.2-0.7% healthy (vs 0.4%+ for daily)
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- 5min: ADX 12+ trending (vs 18+ for daily), ATR 0.2-0.7% healthy (vs 0.4%+ for daily)
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@@ -562,7 +562,47 @@ After sufficient data collected:
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## Critical Components
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## Critical Components
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### 1. Phantom Trade Auto-Closure System
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### 1. Persistent Logger System (lib/utils/persistent-logger.ts)
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**Purpose:** Survive-container-restarts logging for critical errors and trade failures
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**Key features:**
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- Writes to `/app/logs/errors.log` (Docker volume mounted from host)
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- Logs survive container restarts, rebuilds, crashes
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- Daily log rotation with 30-day retention
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- Structured JSON logging with timestamps, context, stack traces
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- Used for database save failures, Drift API errors, critical incidents
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**Usage:**
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```typescript
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import { persistentLogger } from '../utils/persistent-logger'
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try {
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await createTrade({...})
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} catch (error) {
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persistentLogger.logError('DATABASE_SAVE_FAILED', error, {
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symbol: 'SOL-PERP',
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entryPrice: 133.69,
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transactionSignature: '5Yx2...',
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// ALL data needed to reconstruct trade
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})
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throw error
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}
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```
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**Infrastructure:**
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- Docker volume: `./logs:/app/logs` (docker-compose.yml line 63)
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- Directory: `/home/icke/traderv4/logs/` with `.gitkeep`
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- Log format: `{"timestamp":"2025-11-21T00:40:14.123Z","context":"DATABASE_SAVE_FAILED","error":"...","stack":"...","metadata":{...}}`
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**Why it matters:**
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- Console logs disappear on container restart
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- Database failures need persistent record for recovery
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- Enables post-mortem analysis of incidents
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- Orphan position detection can reference logs to reconstruct trades
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**Implemented:** Nov 21, 2025 as part of 5-layer database protection system
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### 2. Phantom Trade Auto-Closure System
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**Purpose:** Automatically close positions when size mismatch detected (position opened but wrong size)
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**Purpose:** Automatically close positions when size mismatch detected (position opened but wrong size)
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**When triggered:**
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**When triggered:**
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@@ -1065,7 +1105,7 @@ const driftSymbol = normalizeTradingViewSymbol(body.symbol)
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### Execute Trade (Production)
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### Execute Trade (Production)
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```
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```
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TradingView alert → n8n Parse Signal Enhanced (extracts metrics + timeframe)
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TradingView alert → n8n Parse Signal Enhanced (extracts metrics + timeframe)
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↓ /api/trading/check-risk [validates quality score ≥60, checks duplicates, per-symbol cooldown]
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↓ /api/trading/check-risk [validates quality score ≥81, checks duplicates, per-symbol cooldown]
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↓ /api/trading/execute
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↓ /api/trading/execute
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↓ normalize symbol (SOLUSDT → SOL-PERP)
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↓ normalize symbol (SOLUSDT → SOL-PERP)
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↓ getMergedConfig()
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↓ getMergedConfig()
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@@ -3217,6 +3257,185 @@ trade.realizedPnL += actualRealizedPnL // NOT: result.realizedPnL from SDK
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- **Git commit:** c607a66 "critical: Fix position close verification to prevent ghost positions"
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- **Git commit:** c607a66 "critical: Fix position close verification to prevent ghost positions"
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- **Lesson:** In DEX trading, always verify state changes actually propagated before updating local state
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- **Lesson:** In DEX trading, always verify state changes actually propagated before updating local state
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58. **5-Layer Database Protection System (IMPLEMENTED - Nov 21, 2025):**
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- **Purpose:** Bulletproof protection against untracked positions from database failures
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- **Trigger:** Investigation of potential missed trade (Nov 21, 00:40 CET) - turned out to be false alarm, but protection implemented anyway
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- **Real incident that sparked this:**
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* User concerned about missing database record after SL stop
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* Investigation found trade WAS saved: cmi82qg590001tn079c3qpw4r
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* SHORT SOL-PERP $133.69 → $134.67, -$89.17 loss
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* But concern was valid - what if database HAD failed?
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- **5-Layer Protection Architecture:**
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```typescript
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// LAYER 1: Persistent File Logger (lib/utils/persistent-logger.ts)
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class PersistentLogger {
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// Survives container restarts
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private logFile = '/app/logs/errors.log'
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logError(context: string, error: any, metadata?: any): void {
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const entry = {
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timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
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context,
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error: error.message,
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stack: error.stack,
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metadata
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}
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fs.appendFileSync(this.logFile, JSON.stringify(entry) + '\n')
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}
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}
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// Daily log rotation, 30-day retention
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// LAYER 2: Database Save with Retry + Verification (lib/database/trades.ts)
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export async function createTrade(params: CreateTradeParams): Promise<Trade> {
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const maxRetries = 3
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const baseDelay = 1000 // 1s → 2s → 4s exponential backoff
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for (let attempt = 1; attempt <= maxRetries; attempt++) {
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try {
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const trade = await prisma.trade.create({ data: tradeData })
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// CRITICAL: Verify trade actually saved
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const verification = await prisma.trade.findUnique({
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where: { id: trade.id }
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})
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if (!verification) {
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throw new Error('Trade created but verification query returned null')
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}
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console.log(`✅ Trade saved and verified: ${trade.id}`)
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return trade
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} catch (error) {
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persistentLogger.logError('DATABASE_SAVE_FAILED', error, {
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attempt,
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tradeParams: params
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})
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if (attempt < maxRetries) {
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const delay = baseDelay * Math.pow(2, attempt - 1)
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await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, delay))
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continue
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}
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throw error
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}
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}
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}
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// LAYER 3: Orphan Position Detection (lib/startup/init-position-manager.ts)
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async function detectOrphanPositions(): Promise<void> {
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// Runs on EVERY container startup
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const driftService = await initializeDriftService()
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const allPositions = await driftService.getAllPositions()
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for (const position of allPositions) {
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if (Math.abs(position.size) < 0.01) continue
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// Check if position exists in database
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const existingTrade = await prisma.trade.findFirst({
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where: {
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symbol: marketConfig.symbol,
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exitReason: null,
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status: { not: 'phantom' }
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}
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})
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if (!existingTrade) {
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console.log(`🚨 ORPHAN POSITION DETECTED: ${marketConfig.symbol}`)
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// Create retroactive database record
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const trade = await createTrade({
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symbol: marketConfig.symbol,
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direction: position.size > 0 ? 'long' : 'short',
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entryPrice: position.entryPrice,
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positionSizeUSD: Math.abs(position.size) * currentPrice,
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// ... other fields
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})
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// Restore Position Manager monitoring
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const activeTrade: ActiveTrade = { /* ... */ }
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await positionManager.addTrade(activeTrade)
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// Alert user via Telegram
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await sendTelegramAlert(
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`🚨 ORPHAN POSITION RECOVERED\n\n` +
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`${marketConfig.symbol} ${direction.toUpperCase()}\n` +
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`Entry: $${position.entryPrice}\n` +
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`Size: $${positionSizeUSD.toFixed(2)}\n\n` +
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`Position found on Drift but missing from database.\n` +
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`Retroactive record created and monitoring restored.`
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)
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}
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}
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}
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// LAYER 4: Critical Logging in Execute Endpoint (app/api/trading/execute/route.ts)
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try {
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await createTrade({...})
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} catch (dbError) {
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// Log with FULL trade details for recovery
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persistentLogger.logError('CRITICAL_DATABASE_FAILURE', dbError, {
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symbol: driftSymbol,
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direction: body.direction,
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entryPrice: openResult.entryPrice,
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positionSize: size,
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transactionSignature: openResult.transactionSignature,
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timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),
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// ALL data needed to reconstruct trade
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})
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console.error('❌ CRITICAL: Failed to save trade to database:', dbError)
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return NextResponse.json({
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success: false,
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error: 'Database save failed - position unprotected',
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message: `Position opened on Drift but database save failed. ` +
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`ORPHAN DETECTION WILL CATCH THIS ON NEXT RESTART. ` +
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`Transaction: ${openResult.transactionSignature}`,
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}, { status: 500 })
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}
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// LAYER 5: Infrastructure (Docker + File System)
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// docker-compose.yml:
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volumes:
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- ./logs:/app/logs # Persistent across container restarts
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// logs/.gitkeep ensures directory exists in git
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```
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- **How it works together:**
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1. **Primary:** Retry logic catches transient database failures (network blips, brief outages)
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2. **Verification:** Ensures "success" means data actually persisted, not just query returned
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3. **Persistent logs:** If all retries fail, full trade details saved to disk (survives restarts)
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4. **Orphan detection:** On every container startup, queries Drift for untracked positions
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5. **Auto-recovery:** Creates missing database records, restores monitoring, alerts user
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- **Real-world validation (Nov 21, 2025):**
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* Investigated trade from 00:40:14 CET
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* Found in database: cmi82qg590001tn079c3qpw4r
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* SHORT SOL-PERP entry $133.69 → exit $134.67 (SL)
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* Closed 01:17:03 CET (37 minutes duration)
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* P&L: -$89.17
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* **No database failure occurred** - system working correctly
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* But protection now in place for future edge cases
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- **Files changed:**
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* `lib/utils/persistent-logger.ts` (NEW - 85 lines)
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* `lib/database/trades.ts` (retry + verification logic)
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* `lib/startup/init-position-manager.ts` (orphan detection + recovery)
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* `app/api/trading/execute/route.ts` (critical logging)
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* `docker-compose.yml` (logs volume mount)
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* `logs/.gitkeep` (NEW - ensures directory exists)
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- **Benefits:**
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* **Zero data loss:** Even if database fails, logs preserve trade details
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* **Auto-recovery:** Orphan detection runs on every restart, catches missed trades
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* **User transparency:** Telegram alerts explain what happened and what was fixed
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* **Developer visibility:** Persistent logs enable post-mortem analysis
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* **Confidence:** User can trust system for $816 → $600k journey
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- **Testing required:**
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* Manual trade execution to verify retry logic works
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* Container restart to verify orphan detection runs
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* Simulate database failure (stop postgres) to test error logging
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* Verify Telegram alerts send correctly
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- **Git commit:** "feat: Add comprehensive database save protection system"
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- **Deployment status:** Code committed and pushed, awaiting container rebuild
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- **Lesson:** In financial systems, "it worked this time" is not enough. Implement defense-in-depth protection for ALL critical operations, even when no failure has occurred yet. Better to have protection you never need than need protection you don't have.
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## File Conventions
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## File Conventions
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- **API routes:** `app/api/[feature]/[action]/route.ts` (Next.js 15 App Router)
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- **API routes:** `app/api/[feature]/[action]/route.ts` (Next.js 15 App Router)
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@@ -3498,7 +3717,7 @@ See `POSITION_SCALING_ROADMAP.md` for planned position management optimizations:
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- **v6:** HalfTrend + BarColor strategy (Nov 12-18) - baseline performance, prone to flip-flops in choppy markets
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- **v6:** HalfTrend + BarColor strategy (Nov 12-18) - baseline performance, prone to flip-flops in choppy markets
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- **v7:** v6 with toggle filters (deprecated - no fundamental improvements, just filter combinations)
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- **v7:** v6 with toggle filters (deprecated - no fundamental improvements, just filter combinations)
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- **v8:** Money Line Sticky Trend (Nov 18+) - Current production indicator
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- **v8:** Money Line Sticky Trend (Nov 18+) - Current production indicator
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- Flip threshold: 0.8% (price must breach line by 0.8% before signal change)
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- Flip threshold: 0.6% (price must breach line by 0.6% before signal change)
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- Momentum confirmation: Tracks consecutive bars beyond threshold (anti-whipsaw)
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- Momentum confirmation: Tracks consecutive bars beyond threshold (anti-whipsaw)
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- Confirm bars: 0 (user-tuned, immediate signals with threshold protection)
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- Confirm bars: 0 (user-tuned, immediate signals with threshold protection)
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- Entry buffer: 0.2 ATR (filters wick flips)
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- Entry buffer: 0.2 ATR (filters wick flips)
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@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Every time a signal is blocked, the system saves:
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- Calculated score (0-100)
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- Calculated score (0-100)
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- Score version (v4 = current)
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- Score version (v4 = current)
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- Detailed breakdown of scoring reasons
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- Detailed breakdown of scoring reasons
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- Minimum score required (currently 65)
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- Minimum score required (currently 81, raised Nov 21, 2025 after v8 success with 94.2 avg quality)
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|
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### Block Reason
|
### Block Reason
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- `QUALITY_SCORE_TOO_LOW` - Score below threshold
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- `QUALITY_SCORE_TOO_LOW` - Score below threshold
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@@ -106,10 +106,10 @@ The **Money Line** is a dynamic support/resistance indicator that adapts to mark
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|
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### v8 Improvements (Anti-Whipsaw Protection)
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### v8 Improvements (Anti-Whipsaw Protection)
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**Flip Threshold (0.8%)**
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**Flip Threshold (0.6%)**
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- Price must move 0.8% beyond the line before it changes color
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- Price must move 0.6% beyond the line before it changes color
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- Filters tiny bounces that don't mean anything
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- Filters tiny bounces that don't mean anything
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- Example: Line at $100 → price must hit $100.80 to flip bullish
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- Example: Line at $100 → price must hit $100.60 to flip bullish
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|
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**Entry Buffer (0.2 ATR)**
|
**Entry Buffer (0.2 ATR)**
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- Confirms the breakout is real, not just a wick
|
- Confirms the breakout is real, not just a wick
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|||||||
@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@
|
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This roadmap guides the systematic improvement of signal quality filtering. We follow a **data-first approach**: collect evidence, analyze patterns, then make changes. No premature optimization.
|
This roadmap guides the systematic improvement of signal quality filtering. We follow a **data-first approach**: collect evidence, analyze patterns, then make changes. No premature optimization.
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|
|
||||||
### Current System
|
### Current System
|
||||||
- **Quality Score Threshold:** 65 points (recently raised from 60)
|
- **Quality Score Threshold:** 81 points (raised from 60 on Nov 21, 2025 after v8 proving 94.2 avg quality with 66.7% WR)
|
||||||
- **Executed Trades:** 157 total (155 closed, 2 open)
|
- **Executed Trades:** 157 total (155 closed, 2 open)
|
||||||
- **Performance:** +$3.43 total P&L, 44.5% win rate
|
- **Performance:** +$3.43 total P&L, 44.5% win rate
|
||||||
- **Score Distribution:**
|
- **Score Distribution:**
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
|
|||||||
|
|
||||||
## Overview
|
## Overview
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The signal quality scoring system evaluates every trade signal based on 5 market context metrics before execution. Signals scoring below 60/100 are automatically blocked. This prevents overtrading and filters out low-quality setups.
|
The signal quality scoring system evaluates every trade signal based on 5 market context metrics before execution. Signals scoring below 81/100 are automatically blocked. This prevents overtrading and filters out low-quality setups. The threshold was raised to 81 on Nov 21, 2025 after v8 demonstrated exceptional performance with an average quality score of 94.2 and 66.7% win rate.
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|
|
||||||
## ✅ Completed Components
|
## ✅ Completed Components
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ export const DEFAULT_TRADING_CONFIG: TradingConfig = {
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trailingStopActivation: 0.5, // Activate trailing when runner is +0.5% in profit
|
trailingStopActivation: 0.5, // Activate trailing when runner is +0.5% in profit
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Signal Quality
|
// Signal Quality
|
||||||
minSignalQualityScore: 60, // Minimum quality score for initial entry (lowered from 65 on Nov 12, 2025 - data showed 60-64 tier outperformed)
|
minSignalQualityScore: 81, // Minimum quality score for initial entry (raised from 60 on Nov 21, 2025 - v8 averaging 94.2 with 66.7% WR)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Position Scaling (conservative defaults)
|
// Position Scaling (conservative defaults)
|
||||||
enablePositionScaling: false, // Disabled by default - enable after testing
|
enablePositionScaling: false, // Disabled by default - enable after testing
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -1249,17 +1249,19 @@ export class PositionManager {
|
|||||||
if (cancelResult.success) {
|
if (cancelResult.success) {
|
||||||
console.log(`✅ Cancelled ${cancelResult.cancelledCount || 0} old orders`)
|
console.log(`✅ Cancelled ${cancelResult.cancelledCount || 0} old orders`)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Place new SL orders at breakeven/profit level for remaining position
|
// Place ONLY new SL orders at breakeven/profit level for remaining position
|
||||||
console.log(`🛡️ Placing new SL orders at $${newStopLossPrice.toFixed(4)} for remaining position...`)
|
// DO NOT place TP2 order - trailing stop is software-only (Position Manager monitors)
|
||||||
|
console.log(`🛡️ Placing only SL orders at $${newStopLossPrice.toFixed(4)} for remaining position...`)
|
||||||
|
console.log(` TP2 at $${trade.tp2Price.toFixed(4)} is software-monitored only (activates trailing stop)`)
|
||||||
const exitOrdersResult = await placeExitOrders({
|
const exitOrdersResult = await placeExitOrders({
|
||||||
symbol: trade.symbol,
|
symbol: trade.symbol,
|
||||||
positionSizeUSD: trade.currentSize,
|
positionSizeUSD: trade.currentSize,
|
||||||
entryPrice: trade.entryPrice,
|
entryPrice: trade.entryPrice,
|
||||||
tp1Price: trade.tp2Price, // Only TP2 remains
|
tp1Price: trade.tp2Price, // Dummy value, won't be used (tp1SizePercent=0)
|
||||||
tp2Price: trade.tp2Price, // Dummy, won't be used
|
tp2Price: trade.tp2Price, // Dummy value, won't be used (tp2SizePercent=0)
|
||||||
stopLossPrice: newStopLossPrice,
|
stopLossPrice: newStopLossPrice,
|
||||||
tp1SizePercent: 100, // Close remaining 25% at TP2
|
tp1SizePercent: 0, // No TP1 order
|
||||||
tp2SizePercent: 0,
|
tp2SizePercent: 0, // No TP2 order - trailing stop is software-only
|
||||||
direction: trade.direction,
|
direction: trade.direction,
|
||||||
useDualStops: this.config.useDualStops,
|
useDualStops: this.config.useDualStops,
|
||||||
softStopPrice: trade.direction === 'long'
|
softStopPrice: trade.direction === 'long'
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ macdSigLen = input.int(9, "Signal", minval=1, inline="macdLens")
|
|||||||
// Signal timing (ALWAYS applies to all signals)
|
// Signal timing (ALWAYS applies to all signals)
|
||||||
groupTiming = "Signal Timing"
|
groupTiming = "Signal Timing"
|
||||||
confirmBars = input.int(2, "Bars to confirm after flip", minval=0, maxval=3, group=groupTiming, tooltip="V8: Wait X bars after flip to confirm trend change. Filters rapid flip-flops.")
|
confirmBars = input.int(2, "Bars to confirm after flip", minval=0, maxval=3, group=groupTiming, tooltip="V8: Wait X bars after flip to confirm trend change. Filters rapid flip-flops.")
|
||||||
flipThreshold = input.float(0.8, "Flip threshold %", minval=0.0, maxval=2.0, step=0.1, group=groupTiming, tooltip="V8: Require price to move this % beyond line before flip. Increased to 0.8% to filter small bounces.")
|
flipThreshold = input.float(0.6, "Flip threshold %", minval=0.0, maxval=2.0, step=0.1, group=groupTiming, tooltip="V8: Require price to move this % beyond line before flip. Set to 0.6% to filter small bounces while catching real reversals.")
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
// Entry filters (optional)
|
// Entry filters (optional)
|
||||||
groupFilters = "Entry filters"
|
groupFilters = "Entry filters"
|
||||||
|
|||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user