diff --git a/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts b/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts
index f790beb..468d999 100644
--- a/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts
+++ b/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts
@@ -173,24 +173,35 @@ export function scoreSignalQuality(params: {
         score -= 15
         reasons.push(`Price near top of range (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%) - risky long`)
       }
-    } else if (params.direction === 'short' && params.pricePosition < 5) {
-      // High volume breakdown at range bottom can be good
-      // Also allow if RSI is bearish (< 40) - breakdowns continue lower
-      if (params.volumeRatio > 1.2 || (params.rsi > 0 && params.rsi < 40)) {
+    } else if (params.direction === 'short' && params.pricePosition < 15) {
+      // Shorts near range bottom (< 15%) require strong confirmation
+      // Require STRONG trend (ADX > 18) to avoid false breakdowns in choppy ranges
+      // OR very bearish RSI (< 35) indicating strong momentum continuation
+      const hasStrongTrend = params.adx > 18
+      const isVeryBearish = params.rsi > 0 && params.rsi < 35
+      const hasGoodVolume = params.volumeRatio > 1.2
+      
+      if ((hasGoodVolume && hasStrongTrend) || isVeryBearish) {
         score += 5
-        reasons.push(`Valid breakdown at range bottom (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%, vol ${params.volumeRatio.toFixed(2)}x, RSI ${params.rsi.toFixed(1)})`)
+        reasons.push(`Valid breakdown at range bottom (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%, vol ${params.volumeRatio.toFixed(2)}x, ADX ${params.adx.toFixed(1)}, RSI ${params.rsi.toFixed(1)})`)
       } else {
-        score -= 10
-        reasons.push(`Price near bottom of range (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%) - reduced penalty for short`)
+        score -= 15
+        reasons.push(`Price near bottom (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%) - need ADX > 18 or RSI < 35 for breakdown`)
       }
-    } else if (params.direction === 'long' && params.pricePosition < 5) {
-      // Longs at bottom with good volume = potential reversal
-      if (params.volumeRatio > 1.2 || (params.rsi > 0 && params.rsi > 60)) {
+    } else if (params.direction === 'long' && params.pricePosition < 15) {
+      // Longs near range bottom (< 15%) require strong reversal confirmation
+      // Require STRONG trend (ADX > 18) to avoid catching falling knives
+      // OR very bullish RSI (> 60) after bounce showing momentum shift
+      const hasStrongTrend = params.adx > 18
+      const isVeryBullish = params.rsi > 0 && params.rsi > 60
+      const hasGoodVolume = params.volumeRatio > 1.2
+      
+      if ((hasGoodVolume && hasStrongTrend) || isVeryBullish) {
         score += 5
-        reasons.push(`Potential reversal at bottom (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%, vol ${params.volumeRatio.toFixed(2)}x, RSI ${params.rsi.toFixed(1)})`)
+        reasons.push(`Potential reversal at bottom (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%, vol ${params.volumeRatio.toFixed(2)}x, ADX ${params.adx.toFixed(1)}, RSI ${params.rsi.toFixed(1)})`)
       } else {
-        score -= 10
-        reasons.push(`Price near bottom (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%) - reduced penalty for reversal long`)
+        score -= 15
+        reasons.push(`Price near bottom (${params.pricePosition.toFixed(0)}%) - need ADX > 18 or RSI > 60 for reversal`)
       }
     } else {
       score += 5