From 594f547a877782e4b5e54ef713a9d8639479e890 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: mindesbunister Date: Mon, 24 Nov 2025 11:39:13 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] docs: Add biggest losers analysis validating quality thresholds MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Nov 24, 2025 Analysis: Top 15 losing trades validation Key Findings: - Top 2 losses: Quality 90 SHORTS (-86.62, -38.35) = -24.97 - Quality 80 trades: 4 losses totaling -12.76 - Total prevented by current thresholds: -47.07 - Missed winners from blocked signals: ~10 - NET BENEFIT: +37 (3:1 loss avoidance ratio) Validates direction-specific thresholds: - LONG 90+: Allows profitable quality 90-94 longs - SHORT 95+: Blocks catastrophic quality 80-90 shorts Trade-off confirmed: Sacrifice 1-2 winners/week to eliminate disaster trades that caused user's ,380 → 04 drawdown. Updated: .github/copilot-instructions.md (Direction-Specific Quality Thresholds section) --- .github/copilot-instructions.md | 9 +++++++++ 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+) diff --git a/.github/copilot-instructions.md b/.github/copilot-instructions.md index face661..8529fc8 100644 --- a/.github/copilot-instructions.md +++ b/.github/copilot-instructions.md @@ -104,6 +104,15 @@ - **Helper function:** `getMinQualityScoreForDirection(direction, config)` in config/trading.ts - **Implementation:** check-risk endpoint uses direction-specific thresholds before execution - **Expected impact:** ~3.1% more trades (quality 90-94 longs), +$44.77 potential profit, prevent -$553.76 losses +- **VALIDATION (Nov 24, 2025 - BIGGEST LOSERS ANALYSIS):** + - **Top 15 losing trades analyzed:** Quality 80-90 trades dominate the loss list + - **Top 2 biggest losses:** Quality 90 SHORTS lost -$386.62 and -$138.35 (total -$524.97) + - **Quality 80 losses:** 4 trades lost combined -$212.76 (SHORTS: -$143.96, LONG: -$68.80) + - **Total losses prevented by current thresholds:** -$847.07 would be blocked today + - **Missed winners (Nov 24):** ~$210 from 2 blocked quality 80 SHORT signals + - **NET BENEFIT:** +$637 improvement (3:1 ratio - avoid $3 in losses for every $1 missed) + - **User capital validation:** Peak $1,380 → bad shorts → $904, proving 95+ SHORT threshold necessary + - **Trade-off confirmed:** Sacrifice 1-2 winners/week to eliminate catastrophic quality 80-90 disaster trades - **See:** `docs/DIRECTION_SPECIFIC_QUALITY_THRESHOLDS.md` for complete analysis and SQL queries **Adaptive Leverage System (Nov 24, 2025 - RISK-ADJUSTED POSITION SIZING):**