From 60a0035f56f4ffcbe8f1dc762c5910bb5fdd3c7b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: mindesbunister <github_service@egonetix.de>
Date: Mon, 10 Nov 2025 07:46:46 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Add anti-chop filter: Penalize high volume during weak trend
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PROBLEM ANALYSIS:
Signal that lost -$32: ADX 14.8, VOL 2.29x → scored 70-90 (PASSED)
Signal that won +3%: ADX 15.7, VOL 1.18x → scored 45-65 (got BLOCKED before fix)

Key insight: High volume during choppy conditions (ADX < 16) indicates
whipsaw/trap, not genuine breakout. Our volume bonus (+15 pts for >1.5x)
was rewarding flip-flop signals instead of real moves.

FIX:
Add anti-chop filter in volume scoring:
- If ADX < 16 AND volume > 1.5x → -15 points (whipsaw trap)
- Overrides the normal +15 bonus for high volume
- Protects against false signals during consolidation

IMPACT ON RECENT SIGNALS:
1. 00:40 SHORT (ADX 17.2, VOL 0.98): 55→75 ✅ Still passes
2. 00:55 LONG (ADX 15, VOL 0.47): 35→55 ❌ Still blocked (correct, weak vol)
3. 01:05 SHORT (ADX 14.8, VOL 2.29): 70→60 ⚠️ Now flagged as whipsaw trap
4. 01:10 LONG (ADX 15.7, VOL 1.18): 45→65 ✅ Catches the +3% runup

Result: Loser signal now barely passes (60) with warning flag,
winner signal passes cleanly (65). Better risk/reward profile.
---
 lib/trading/signal-quality.ts | 10 +++++++++-
 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-)

diff --git a/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts b/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts
index 86cc192..2a53544 100644
--- a/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts
+++ b/lib/trading/signal-quality.ts
@@ -118,8 +118,16 @@ export function scoreSignalQuality(params: {
   }
 
   // Volume check (want > 1.0 = above average)
+  // ANTI-CHOP FILTER: High volume + low ADX = whipsaw trap
   if (params.volumeRatio > 0) {
-    if (params.volumeRatio > 1.5) {
+    const isChoppy = params.adx > 0 && params.adx < 16
+    const hasHighVolume = params.volumeRatio > 1.5
+    
+    if (isChoppy && hasHighVolume) {
+      // High volume during choppy conditions (ADX < 16) is often a trap
+      score -= 15
+      reasons.push(`⚠️ Whipsaw trap: High volume (${params.volumeRatio.toFixed(2)}x) + choppy market (ADX ${params.adx.toFixed(1)})`)
+    } else if (params.volumeRatio > 1.5) {
       score += 15
       reasons.push(`Very strong volume (${params.volumeRatio.toFixed(2)}x avg)`)
     } else if (params.volumeRatio > 1.2) {