From cf0de17aeef10fc6e313261ac307533163001c49 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: mindesbunister <github_service@egonetix.de>
Date: Fri, 14 Nov 2025 06:51:39 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] docs: update master roadmap with Phase 1.5 completion and
 future phases

Updated Initiative 1 (Signal Quality) section:

COMPLETED:
- Phase 1.5: Signal frequency penalties deployed (Nov 14)
  - Overtrading, flip-flop, alternating pattern detection
  - Database-driven real-time analysis
  - Eliminates tight-range flip-flop losses

PLANNED:
- Phase 6: TradingView range compression metrics (Nov 2025)
- Phase 7: Volume profile integration (Dec 2025 - Q1 2026)

Success metrics updated to reflect current performance (~45% WR).
Timeline extended to 3-4 weeks for full initiative completion.
---
 OPTIMIZATION_MASTER_ROADMAP.md | 28 ++++++++++++++++++++++++----
 1 file changed, 24 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-)

diff --git a/OPTIMIZATION_MASTER_ROADMAP.md b/OPTIMIZATION_MASTER_ROADMAP.md
index b27754c..49e1b47 100644
--- a/OPTIMIZATION_MASTER_ROADMAP.md
+++ b/OPTIMIZATION_MASTER_ROADMAP.md
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Trading Bot Optimization - Master Roadmap
 
-**Last Updated:** November 12, 2025  
+**Last Updated:** November 14, 2025  
 **Current Capital:** $97.55 USDC  
 **Phase 1 Goal:** $106 → $2,500 (60%+ win rate, aggressive compounding)
 
@@ -24,6 +24,12 @@ All three initiatives follow the same pattern:
 Filter out bad trades BEFORE entry by optimizing quality score thresholds.
 
 ### Current Status
+✅ **Phase 1.5 COMPLETE** - Signal Frequency Penalties Deployed (Nov 14)
+- **Overtrading penalty:** 3+ signals in 30min → -20 points
+- **Flip-flop penalty:** Opposite direction <15min → -25 points
+- **Alternating pattern:** Last 3 trades flip → -30 points
+- **Impact:** Eliminates tight-range flip-flops (like $141-145 consolidation)
+
 📊 **Phase 1 (IN PROGRESS)** - Blocked Signals Collection
 - **Progress:** 0/10-20 blocked signals needed
 - **Started:** November 11, 2025
@@ -34,23 +40,37 @@ Every blocked signal saves:
 - Signal metrics: ATR, ADX, RSI, volumeRatio, pricePosition, timeframe
 - Quality score + breakdown (what caused low score)
 - Block reason (QUALITY_SCORE_TOO_LOW, COOLDOWN, etc.)
+- Frequency penalties applied (overtrading, flip-flop, alternating)
 - Future: Price movement tracking (would it have hit TP1/TP2/SL?)
 
 ### Key Questions to Answer
+- Are frequency penalties catching flip-flops effectively?
 - Are we blocking good signals? (score 55-59 that would have won)
 - Are we letting bad signals through? (score 65-70 that lose)
 - Should threshold be 60? 65? 70? Symbol-specific?
 
+### Next Phases (Planned)
+- **Phase 6:** TradingView range compression metrics (Nov 2025)
+  - Detects compressed ranges and ADX-momentum mismatches
+  - ~1-2 hour implementation
+- **Phase 7:** Volume profile integration (Dec 2025 - Q1 2026)
+  - Uses Volume S/R Zones V2 for consolidation detection
+  - Most powerful but most complex
+
 ### Timeline
+- **Phase 1.5:** ✅ Complete (Nov 14, 2025)
 - **Phase 1:** 1-2 weeks (need 10-20 blocked signals)
 - **Phase 2:** 1 day (SQL analysis)
 - **Phase 3:** 2-3 hours (adjust thresholds)
-- **Total:** ~2-3 weeks
+- **Phase 6:** 1-2 hours (TradingView alert modifications)
+- **Phase 7:** 2-3 hours (volume profile integration)
+- **Total:** ~3-4 weeks
 
 ### Success Metrics
-- Win rate improves by 5%+ (60% → 65%)
+- Win rate improves by 5-10%+ (current: ~45% → target: 55-60%)
+- Eliminate flip-flop losses in consolidation zones
 - Fewer losing trades in 50-60% drawdown range
-- Maintain or increase trade frequency
+- Maintain or increase trade frequency on valid trends
 
 ### SQL Queries Ready
 See `BLOCKED_SIGNALS_TRACKING.md` for full query reference