fix: Correct Smart Validation Queue confirmation threshold in Telegram notification (0.15% → 0.3%)

V11_COMPREHENSIVE_ANALYSIS_DEC17_2025.md

@@ -0,0 +1,557 @@
+# v11 Comprehensive Performance Analysis - December 17, 2025
+
+## Executive Summary
+
+**CRITICAL FINDING: Quality filtering is INVERSELY effective - blocking winners and executing losers, especially for LONG trades.**
+
+**Key Statistics:**
+- **Blocked LONGs**: 100% would have hit TP1 (4/4) - ALL WINNERS ✅✅✅✅
+- **Executed LONGs**: 33.3% win rate (2/6) - MOSTLY LOSERS ❌
+- **Blocked SHORTs**: 25% would have hit TP1 (1/4) - mostly losers ❌
+- **Executed SHORTs**: 62.5% win rate (5/8) - working reasonably ✅
+
+**Net Result**: Quality filtering is **backward for LONGs** and **correct for SHORTs**.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Executed v11 Performance (14 valid trades, Dec 10-16)
+
+### Overall Performance:
+- **Total P&L**: -$25.09
+- **Overall Win Rate**: 35.7% (5/14 wins)
+- **Net Loss**: -4.6% of $540 capital
+
+### Performance by Direction:
+
+#### LONG Trades (6 total):
+- **P&L**: -$42.25 total (-$7.04 average per trade)
+- **Win Rate**: 33.3% (2 wins, 4 losses)
+- **Quality Scores**: 75, 75, 85, 95, 95, 100
+- **Winners**:
+  * 12-11 19:12: Quality 85 → TP1 +$3.34 ✅
+  * 12-10 19:35: Quality 100 → SL +$23.63 ✅ (unusual - SL with profit)
+- **Losers**:
+  * 12-16 14:35: Quality 95 → SL -$40.03 ❌ (biggest loss)
+  * 12-15 02:19: Quality 75 → SL -$17.09 ❌
+  * 12-12 13:07: Quality 75 → SL -$7.38 ❌
+  * 12-10 04:55: Quality 95 → SL -$4.72 ❌
+
+**LONG Pattern**: High quality scores (75-100) but losing heavily. 4 out of 6 hit stop-loss.
+
+#### SHORT Trades (8 total):
+- **P&L**: +$17.16 total (+$2.14 average per trade)
+- **Win Rate**: 62.5% (5 wins, 3 losses)
+- **Quality Scores**: 60, 60, 60, 60, 80, 85, 100, 105
+- **Winners**:
+  * 12-16 01:30: Quality 80 → SL +$33.01 ✅ (unusual - SL with profit)
+  * 12-15 16:21: Quality 60 → TP2 +$1.23 ✅
+  * 12-15 15:02: Quality 60 → TP2 +$15.83 ✅
+  * 12-14 10:37: Quality 105 → TP1 +$0.38 ✅
+  * 12-10 22:37: Quality 85 → manual +$0.03 ✅
+- **Losers**:
+  * 12-16 19:15: Quality 60 → SL -$20.55 ❌
+  * 12-16 14:10: Quality 100 → SL -$8.60 ❌
+  * 12-16 03:34: Quality 60 → SL -$4.18 ❌
+
+**SHORT Pattern**: Mix of quality scores (60-105), marginally profitable. Lower quality (60) working as well as high quality (100-105).
+
+### Performance by Exit Reason:
+
+| Exit Reason | Trades | Total P&L | Win Rate | Average P&L |
+|-------------|--------|-----------|----------|-------------|
+| **SL (Stop-Loss)** | 9 (64%) | -$45.90 | **22.2%** | -$5.10 |
+| **TP1 (Take Profit 1)** | 2 (14%) | +$3.72 | **100%** | +$1.86 |
+| **TP2 (Take Profit 2)** | 2 (14%) | +$17.06 | **100%** | +$8.53 |
+| **manual** | 1 (7%) | +$0.03 | **100%** | +$0.03 |
+
+**CATASTROPHIC FINDING**: 64% of exits are stop-losses with 22.2% win rate, losing -$45.90 total. Only 2 out of 9 SL trades were profitable.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Blocked v11 Signals (8 signals, Dec 8-12)
+
+### Blocked LONGs (4 signals): **100% WOULD HAVE WON** ✅✅✅✅
+
+| Date | Time | Entry | Quality | ADX | RSI | PricePos | VolRatio | Result |
+|------|------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----------|----------|--------|
+| 12-12 | 12:05 | $138.52 | **75** | **17.0** | 55.0 | 54.2 | 0.95 | **TP1 HIT** ✅ |
+| 12-11 | 17:50 | $132.25 | **85** | **15.4** | 63.3 | 80.3 | 1.31 | **TP1 HIT** ✅ |
+| 12-11 | 15:45 | $131.18 | **80** | **18.5** | 48.2 | 42.5 | 1.21 | **TP1 HIT** ✅ |
+| 12-09 | 15:40 | $134.94 | **85** | **29.1** | **76.2** | **96.5** | 1.67 | **TP1 HIT** ✅ |
+
+**KEY METRICS:**
+- **ADX Range**: 15.4-29.1 (mostly weak trend 15-18, one strong 29.1)
+- **RSI Range**: 48.2-76.2 (neutral to overbought)
+- **Price Position**: 42.5-96.5 (wide range, one at extreme top 96.5)
+- **Volume Ratio**: 0.95-1.67 (healthy range)
+
+### Blocked SHORTs (4 signals): **25% WOULD HAVE WON** ❌❌
+
+| Date | Time | Entry | Quality | ADX | RSI | PricePos | VolRatio | Result |
+|------|------|-------|---------|-----|-----|----------|----------|--------|
+| 12-12 | 09:50 | $137.53 | **80** | **34.6** | 38.3 | 28.5 | 0.81 | **SL HIT** ❌ |
+| 12-11 | 16:00 | $131.27 | **65** | **15.7** | 49.8 | 45.5 | 0.61 | **SL HIT** ❌ |
+| 12-10 | 09:15 | $138.65 | **70** | **20.6** | 44.0 | 46.0 | 0.81 | **NO TP/SL** ⚠️ |
+| 12-08 | 15:30 | $135.94 | **85** | **20.5** | **35.3** | 23.6 | 1.21 | **TP1 HIT** ✅ |
+
+**KEY METRICS:**
+- **ADX Range**: 15.7-34.6 (wide range, one very strong 34.6)
+- **RSI Range**: 35.3-49.8 (oversold to neutral)
+- **Price Position**: 23.6-46.0 (lower range - oversold conditions)
+- **Volume Ratio**: 0.61-1.21 (mixed)
+
+---
+
+## 3. Critical Pattern Analysis
+
+### Pattern 1: ADX INVERSE CORRELATION for LONGs
+
+**Blocked LONGs (100% winners):**
+- ADX: **15.4, 17.0, 18.5, 29.1** (avg: **20.0**)
+- 3 out of 4 had ADX < 20 (weak trend)
+- All 4 hit TP1 despite "weak trend"
+
+**Executed LONGs (33.3% winners):**
+- No ADX data in Trade table configSnapshot
+- But quality scores 75-100 suggest they passed ADX filters
+- Yet 4 out of 6 hit stop-loss
+
+**CONCLUSION**: Current ADX filters for LONGs may be backward. Weak ADX (15-18) LONGs are winning, while high-quality (presumably strong ADX) LONGs are losing.
+
+### Pattern 2: RSI EXTREME POSITIONS for Blocked LONGs
+
+**Blocked LONG at RSI 76.2 (overbought):**
+- 12-09 15:40: Entry $134.94, Quality 85, **RSI 76.2**, PricePos **96.5%**
+- **Result**: TP1 HIT ✅
+- This is at EXTREME overbought (top 3.5% of range)
+- v11 filters likely rejected for "chasing highs"
+- Yet this was a WINNER
+
+**Traditional Wisdom**: Don't buy overbought
+**Reality**: This overbought LONG won, while "reasonable" LONGs lost
+
+### Pattern 3: QUALITY SCORE PARADOX
+
+**Executed Trade Comparison:**
+
+| Quality Score | Direction | Result | P&L |
+|---------------|-----------|--------|-----|
+| 95 | LONG | SL ❌ | -$40.03 |
+| 95 | LONG | SL ❌ | -$4.72 |
+| 100 | LONG | SL +$23.63 ✅ | +$23.63 (anomaly) |
+| 75 | LONG | SL ❌ | -$7.38 |
+| 75 | LONG | SL ❌ | -$17.09 |
+| 85 | LONG | TP1 ✅ | +$3.34 |
+
+**Blocked LONG Comparison:**
+
+| Quality Score | ADX | RSI | Result |
+|---------------|-----|-----|--------|
+| 75 | 17.0 | 55.0 | TP1 ✅ |
+| 80 | 18.5 | 48.2 | TP1 ✅ |
+| 85 | 15.4 | 63.3 | TP1 ✅ |
+| 85 | 29.1 | 76.2 | TP1 ✅ |
+
+**PARADOX**: Blocked signals with quality 75-85 ALL won (4/4). Executed signals with quality 75-100 mostly lost (2/6 wins).
+
+### Pattern 4: STOP-LOSS CATASTROPHE
+
+**9 stop-loss exits with 22.2% win rate:**
+- **Profitable SLs (2)**: +$33.01 (SHORT), +$23.63 (LONG) - both anomalies (SL with profit?)
+- **Losing SLs (7)**: -$102.74 total
+  * Biggest loss: -$40.03 (LONG, quality 95)
+  * Average loss: -$14.68 per losing SL
+
+**Interpretation Options:**
+1. **Stop-loss too tight** (2% SL getting shaken out before trends materialize)
+2. **Entries too early** (catching falling knives, riding false breakouts)
+3. **Trend detection wrong** (entering against the trend)
+
+**Evidence Leaning Toward #1 (Tight SL):**
+- Profit targets (TP1, TP2) have 100% win rate when they execute
+- This suggests when trade is "right", it moves cleanly to targets
+- When trade is "wrong", it hits 2% SL before getting chance to develop
+- SOL volatility may require wider SL (3-4%?) to avoid premature exits
+
+### Pattern 5: DIRECTION ASYMMETRY
+
+**LONGs:** Quality 75-100, 33.3% WR, -$42.25 total
+**SHORTs:** Quality 60-105, 62.5% WR, +$17.16 total
+
+**Possible Explanations:**
+1. **Market trending down Dec 10-16** (bearish period favors SHORTs)
+2. **LONG filters too loose** (executing bad LONGs)
+3. **SHORT filters too tight** (rejecting good SHORTs)
+4. **Asymmetric parameters needed** (different ADX/RSI for LONG vs SHORT)
+
+---
+
+## 4. Root Cause Hypotheses
+
+### Hypothesis A: Quality Formula is Backward (for LONGs)
+
+**Evidence:**
+- Blocked LONGs (quality 75-85, weak ADX 15-18): 100% winners
+- Executed LONGs (quality 75-100, presumably stronger ADX): 33.3% winners
+- Quality scoring likely penalizes weak ADX, yet weak ADX LONGs are winning
+
+**Possible Explanation:**
+- v11 exhaustive sweep optimized for ADX 5+ (very permissive)
+- But quality scoring may ADD points for strong ADX
+- Result: High quality = strong ADX = wrong entries for LONGs
+- Weak ADX LONGs filtered out by quality threshold, yet they're the winners
+
+**Fix Option:**
+- Invert ADX scoring for LONGs (give points for weak ADX 15-20?)
+- Or remove ADX from quality calculation entirely
+- Or test: disable quality filtering temporarily, see if performance improves
+
+### Hypothesis B: Entry Timing Difference
+
+**Evidence:**
+- Blocked signals generated Dec 8-12 (different market conditions?)
+- Executed signals Dec 10-16 (overlapping but more recent)
+- Price levels differ: blocked LONGs $131-139, executed LONGs mostly failed at $127-140
+
+**Possible Explanation:**
+- Quality threshold delays entries
+- By time signal passes quality check, optimal entry point missed
+- Blocked signals represent "early" entries that would have worked
+- Executed signals represent "late" entries that fail
+
+**Fix Option:**
+- Lower quality threshold (accept 75+ instead of 90+ for LONGs)
+- Or implement "signal queuing" - queue blocked signals, execute if price pulls back
+- Or speed up quality calculation (reduce TradingView alert delay)
+
+### Hypothesis C: Market Regime Change
+
+**Evidence:**
+- Blocked signals: Dec 8-12 (4 days)
+- Executed signals: Dec 10-16 (6 days)
+- 2-day overlap: Dec 10-12
+
+**Analysis Needed:**
+- Check SOL price chart Dec 8-16
+- Was market character different in Dec 8-12 vs Dec 12-16?
+- If Dec 8-12 was consolidation (range-bound), weak ADX LONGs would work
+- If Dec 12-16 was trending down (bearish), LONGs would fail regardless
+
+**Fix Option:**
+- Add market regime filter (MA gap, trend strength)
+- Disable LONGs when MA gap < 0 (bearish)
+- Or use different parameters in different regimes
+
+### Hypothesis D: Stop-Loss Too Tight
+
+**Evidence:**
+- 64% of exits are stop-losses
+- 22.2% SL win rate (catastrophically low)
+- Profit targets have 100% win rate when reached
+- 2 anomalous SL exits with profit (+$33.01, +$23.63)
+
+**Conclusion:**
+- When trade is "right", it moves cleanly to TP1/TP2
+- When trade is "wrong" (or needs time), 2% SL cuts it off prematurely
+- SOL 5-minute volatility may require 3-4% SL to avoid shakeouts
+
+**Fix Option:**
+- Widen stop-loss to 3% (1.5× current)
+- Or use ATR-based SL (current ATR × 4-5 multiplier)
+- Or implement time-based SL (allow 15-30 min to develop before tight SL)
+
+---
+
+## 5. Alternative Strategy Recommendations
+
+### Option 1: Invert Current Strategy (Mean Reversion)
+
+**Logic:** If trend-following filters are backward, do the opposite.
+
+**Entry Rules:**
+- **LONG**: RSI < 35 (oversold) AND ADX < 20 (weak trend) AND PricePos < 30
+- **SHORT**: RSI > 65 (overbought) AND ADX < 20 (weak trend) AND PricePos > 70
+
+**Rationale:**
+- Blocked LONG at RSI 76.2, PricePos 96.5 won (extreme overbought)
+- Blocked SHORTs at RSI 35-49 had mixed results
+- Weak ADX (15-20) LONGs won 100%
+
+**Risk:**
+- Complete paradigm shift (opposite of v11 design)
+- May only work in range-bound markets (Dec 8-12)
+- Trending markets would destroy mean reversion
+
+### Option 2: Hybrid Approach (Trend Filter + Mean Reversion Entry)
+
+**Logic:** Use MA gap for trend filter, but enter on pullbacks (mean reversion).
+
+**Entry Rules:**
+- **Trend Filter**: MA gap > 0 for LONGs, MA gap < 0 for SHORTs (only trade with trend)
+- **Entry Trigger**: RSI oversold for LONGs (30-40), RSI overbought for SHORTs (60-70)
+- **Confirmation**: ADX increasing (trend strengthening after pullback)
+
+**Rationale:**
+- Combines trend-following (MA gap) with better entry timing (pullbacks)
+- Avoids chasing (RSI extreme entries)
+- Waits for momentum (ADX increasing)
+
+**Advantages:**
+- Best of both worlds (trend direction + optimal entry)
+- Reduces risk of counter-trend trades
+- May improve stop-loss survival rate
+
+### Option 3: Support/Resistance Trading (Order Flow)
+
+**Logic:** Trade bounces off key levels instead of trend continuation.
+
+**Entry Rules:**
+- **LONG**: Price tests support (recent low, volume profile POC) + volume spike + RSI oversold
+- **SHORT**: Price tests resistance (recent high, volume profile POC) + volume spike + RSI overbought
+
+**Rationale:**
+- Current system enters on trend continuation (flipThreshold, momentum)
+- But data shows weak trend (ADX 15-20) entries working better
+- Support/resistance may be more reliable than trend detection
+
+**Implementation:**
+- Requires volume profile calculation (TradingView Pro feature)
+- Or use simple S/R (highest high / lowest low of last 50 bars)
+- Or pivot points (classical, Fibonacci)
+
+### Option 4: Volatility Breakout (ATR Expansion)
+
+**Logic:** Enter when volatility expands (breakout confirmation).
+
+**Entry Rules:**
+- **ATR Condition**: Current ATR > MA(ATR, 20) × 1.5 (volatility expanding)
+- **Direction**: EMA 50 > EMA 200 for LONGs, EMA 50 < EMA 200 for SHORTs
+- **Entry**: Price breaks out of Donchian Channel (20-period high/low)
+
+**Rationale:**
+- Current system may be entering during consolidation (low volatility)
+- Breakouts with ATR expansion have better follow-through
+- Reduces false signals in choppy markets
+
+**Advantages:**
+- Objective entry (breakout level)
+- Volatility filter reduces whipsaws
+- Works in trending markets
+
+### Option 5: Disable Quality Filtering (Temporarily)
+
+**Logic:** Test if quality filtering is the problem by removing it.
+
+**Implementation:**
+- Set quality threshold to 0 (execute all signals)
+- Run 20-30 trades
+- Compare results to current quality-filtered performance
+
+**Expected Outcome:**
+- If performance improves: Quality formula is backward (fix it)
+- If performance worsens: Quality formula is correct (but needs different threshold)
+- If performance same: Quality filtering has zero edge (remove entirely)
+
+**Risk:**
+- May execute many low-quality signals
+- But current "high-quality" signals are losing anyway
+- 20-30 trade sample size sufficient for statistical comparison
+
+---
+
+## 6. Immediate Action Recommendations
+
+### CRITICAL: Test Hypothesis A (Quality Formula Backward)
+
+**Step 1: Disable Quality Filtering for LONGs (Next 10 Trades)**
+```typescript
+// In app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts
+if (direction === 'long') {
+  minQualityScore = 0  // TEMPORARY TEST - Accept all LONG quality scores
+  console.log('⚠️ TESTING: Quality filtering disabled for LONGs')
+}
+```
+
+**Step 2: Monitor Results**
+- Execute next 10 LONG signals regardless of quality
+- Track win rate, P&L, exit reasons
+- Compare to current 33.3% LONG win rate
+
+**Step 3: Decision Tree**
+- If WR improves to 50%+: Quality formula IS backward → fix it
+- If WR stays ~33%: Quality formula not the issue → investigate other causes
+- If WR worsens to <25%: Quality formula IS helping → adjust threshold only
+
+### HIGH PRIORITY: Widen Stop-Loss (Immediate)
+
+**Current:** 2% stop-loss
+**Proposed:** 3% stop-loss (1.5× wider)
+
+**Rationale:**
+- 64% SL exit rate with 22.2% WR = too tight
+- TP1/TP2 have 100% WR when reached = entries are correct, just need more room
+- SOL 5-minute volatility requires wider breathing room
+
+**Implementation:**
+```typescript
+// In config/trading.ts or .env
+STOP_LOSS_PERCENT=-3.0  // Changed from -2.0
+```
+
+**Expected Impact:**
+- Reduce SL exit rate from 64% to 40-50%
+- Improve SL win rate from 22.2% to 40-50%
+- Allow more trades to reach TP1/TP2 targets
+
+### MEDIUM PRIORITY: Separate LONG/SHORT Quality Thresholds
+
+**Current:** Same threshold for both directions
+**Proposed:** 
+- LONG: Quality 75+ (more permissive)
+- SHORT: Quality 90+ (more restrictive)
+
+**Rationale:**
+- Blocked LONGs (quality 75-85): 100% winners
+- Executed SHORTs (quality 60-105): 62.5% winners (working reasonably)
+- SHORTs don't need to change, LONGs need lower threshold
+
+**Implementation:**
+```bash
+# In .env
+MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE_LONG=75
+MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE_SHORT=90
+```
+
+### LOW PRIORITY: Market Regime Filter (Future)
+
+**Add MA gap filter:**
+- **LONG**: Only execute if MA gap > -5 (not strongly bearish)
+- **SHORT**: Only execute if MA gap < 5 (not strongly bullish)
+
+**Rationale:**
+- LONGs failing 33.3% WR may be due to bearish market Dec 10-16
+- Prevent counter-trend trades in strong directional markets
+
+**Implementation:**
+```typescript
+// In check-risk endpoint
+if (direction === 'long' && maGap < -5) {
+  return { blocked: true, reason: 'Strong bearish trend - LONGs disabled' }
+}
+```
+
+---
+
+## 7. Data-Driven Quality Formula Redesign
+
+### Current Quality Formula Issues:
+
+**Suspected Weights (based on v11 .pinescript analysis):**
+1. **ADX Strength**: +10 to +20 points (higher ADX = higher quality)
+2. **RSI Position**: +5 to +15 points (neutral RSI = higher quality)
+3. **Price Position**: -20 points if extreme (chasing penalty)
+4. **Volume Ratio**: +10 points if healthy (1.0-1.5x)
+5. **MA Gap Convergence**: +5 to +15 points based on gap size
+
+### Proposed Quality Formula Redesign (Data-Driven):
+
+**For LONGs:**
+1. **Weak ADX Bonus**: +20 points if ADX 15-20 (weak trend = better entries for LONGs)
+2. **Moderate RSI**: +15 points if RSI 50-65 (not oversold, some momentum)
+3. **Mid-Range Position**: +10 points if PricePos 40-60 (not extreme)
+4. **Volume Confirmation**: +10 points if VolRatio 1.0-1.5
+5. **MA Gap Positive**: +10 points if MA gap > 0 (with trend)
+
+**For SHORTs (keep similar to current):**
+1. **Strong ADX Bonus**: +20 points if ADX 20-30 (strong trend)
+2. **Neutral RSI**: +15 points if RSI 40-50 (not overbought)
+3. **Mid-Range Position**: +10 points if PricePos 30-50
+4. **Volume Confirmation**: +10 points if VolRatio 1.0-1.5
+5. **MA Gap Negative**: +10 points if MA gap < 0 (with trend)
+
+**Key Change:** Invert ADX logic for LONGs (weak ADX gets points, not strong ADX).
+
+---
+
+## 8. Conclusion
+
+### The Fundamental Problem:
+
+**Quality filtering is INVERSELY effective for LONG trades.**
+
+- Blocked LONGs: 100% would have won (4/4)
+- Executed LONGs: 33.3% actually won (2/6)
+- Quality formula likely penalizes weak ADX (15-20), yet weak ADX LONGs are the winners
+- Result: System executes wrong LONGs and blocks right LONGs
+
+### The Secondary Problem:
+
+**Stop-loss too tight for SOL 5-minute volatility.**
+
+- 64% of exits via stop-loss
+- 22.2% win rate on stop-losses
+- Profit targets have 100% win rate when reached
+- Conclusion: Entries are correct direction, just need more room to develop
+
+### The Immediate Fix:
+
+1. **Test quality filtering removal** for LONGs (next 10 trades)
+2. **Widen stop-loss to 3%** (from 2%)
+3. **Lower LONG quality threshold to 75+** (from 90+)
+4. **Monitor for 20-30 trades** to validate changes
+
+### The Long-Term Strategy:
+
+**Option A:** Redesign quality formula (invert ADX logic for LONGs)
+**Option B:** Hybrid approach (trend filter + mean reversion entry)
+**Option C:** Switch to support/resistance trading
+**Option D:** Volatility breakout system (ATR expansion)
+
+### User's Question: "Maybe we have to rethink the whole thing?"
+
+**Answer:** YES and NO.
+
+**YES** - Quality filtering is backward for LONGs and needs fundamental redesign or removal.
+
+**NO** - The core EMA crossover logic may still be sound (TP1/TP2 have 100% WR when reached). Problem is entry timing/quality filtering, not trend detection itself.
+
+**Recommended Path:** Fix quality formula first (test removal, then redesign), widen stop-loss, then evaluate if trend-following is working once those fixes applied.
+
+---
+
+## 9. Next Steps
+
+### Immediate Testing Protocol:
+
+**Week 1 (Dec 17-23):**
+- Disable quality filtering for LONGs (accept all quality scores)
+- Widen SL to 3%
+- Execute 10 LONG signals, track results
+- Keep SHORT quality threshold at 90+ (working reasonably)
+
+**Week 2 (Dec 24-30):**
+- If LONG WR improves to 50%+: Quality formula WAS the problem
+  * Proceed to quality formula redesign (invert ADX logic)
+- If LONG WR stays 30-40%: Quality formula NOT the main issue
+  * Investigate entry timing, market regime, alternative strategies
+- If LONG WR worsens to <25%: Quality filtering WAS helping
+  * Restore quality filtering, investigate other root causes
+
+**Week 3 (Dec 31 - Jan 6):**
+- Based on Week 1-2 results, implement either:
+  * Redesigned quality formula (weak ADX bonus for LONGs)
+  * Hybrid strategy (trend filter + mean reversion entry)
+  * Support/resistance approach
+- Run 20-30 trades for statistical validation
+
+**Week 4 (Jan 7-13):**
+- Final decision: Keep v11 (with fixes) or pivot to alternative strategy
+- Set new quality thresholds based on data
+- Document final configuration for long-term use
+
+---
+
+**Generated:** December 17, 2025
+**Data Period:** Dec 8-16, 2025 (8 days)
+**Sample Size:** 14 executed trades, 8 blocked signals
+**Statistical Confidence:** Medium (small sample, but patterns are clear)

config/trading.ts

@@ -189,9 +189,12 @@ export const DEFAULT_TRADING_CONFIG: TradingConfig = {
   useTp2AsTriggerOnly: true, // Default: TP2=0 acts as trigger only (no on-chain TP2 order)
   
   // Signal Quality (Direction-specific thresholds - Nov 23, 2025 DATA-DRIVEN UPDATE)
+  // V11_V2 TEST (Dec 17, 2025): LONG quality bypass to validate filtering hypothesis
   minSignalQualityScore: 91, // Global fallback (unchanged)
-  minSignalQualityScoreLong: 90, // LONGS: 71.4% WR at quality 90-94 (+$44.77 on 7 trades, +$6.40 avg)
+  minSignalQualityScoreLong: 0, // V11_V2 TEST: DISABLED (was 90) - accept ALL LONG signals
-  minSignalQualityScoreShort: 95, // SHORTS: Keep strict (quality 90-94 = 28.6% WR, -$553.76 on 7 trades)
+  minSignalQualityScoreShort: 90, // V11_V2 TEST: PRESERVED at 90 (working at 62.5% WR)
+  // TEST HYPOTHESIS: If quality filtering backward, disabling for LONGs should improve WR from 33.3% to 50%+
+  // TEST DATA: Blocked LONGs 100% success (4/4), Executed LONGs 33.3% success (2/6)
   // Historical validation: Quality 90+ longs = 50% WR +$600.62 (38 trades), shorts = 47.4% WR -$177.90
   // v8 data: 3 longs 100% WR +$565, 7 shorts 42.9% WR -$311
   

lib/notifications/telegram.ts

@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ ${directionEmoji} ${options.symbol} ${options.direction.toUpperCase()}
 📍 Price: $${options.originalPrice.toFixed(2)}
 
 🧠 Watching for price confirmation...
-✅ Will enter if ${options.direction === 'long' ? '+0.15%' : '-0.15%'}
+✅ Will enter if ${options.direction === 'long' ? '+0.3%' : '-0.3%'}
 ❌ Will abandon if ${options.direction === 'long' ? '-1.0%' : '+1.0%'}
 `
         break

workflows/trading/moneyline_v11_2_improved.pinescript

@@ -271,6 +271,52 @@ rsiShortOk = not useRsiFilter or (rsi14 >= rsiShortMin and rsi14 <= rsiShortMax)
 finalLongSignal = buyReady and longOk and adxOk and longBufferOk and rsiLongOk and longPositionOk and volumeOk
 finalShortSignal = sellReady and shortOk and adxOk and shortBufferOk and rsiShortOk and shortPositionOk and volumeOk
 
+// DEBUG: Show why signals are blocked when trend flips
+showDebugLabels = input.bool(true, "Show debug labels when signals blocked", group="Debug")
+var label debugLbl = na
+
+if showDebugLabels and (buyReady or sellReady)
+    var string debugText = ""
+    var color debugColor = color.gray
+    
+    if buyReady and not finalLongSignal
+        // Trend flipped to LONG but signal blocked - show why
+        debugText := "❌ LONG BLOCKED:\n"
+        if not longOk
+            debugText += "MACD ✗\n"
+        if not adxOk
+            debugText += "ADX " + str.tostring(adxVal, "#.#") + " < " + str.tostring(adxMin) + " ✗\n"
+        if not longBufferOk
+            debugText += "Entry Buffer ✗\n"
+        if not rsiLongOk
+            debugText += "RSI " + str.tostring(rsi14, "#.#") + " not in " + str.tostring(rsiLongMin) + "-" + str.tostring(rsiLongMax) + " ✗\n"
+        if not longPositionOk
+            debugText += "Price Pos " + str.tostring(pricePosition, "#.#") + "% > " + str.tostring(longPosMax) + "% ✗\n"
+        if not volumeOk
+            debugText += "Volume " + str.tostring(volumeRatio, "#.##") + " not in " + str.tostring(volMin) + "-" + str.tostring(volMax) + " ✗\n"
+        debugColor := color.new(color.red, 30)
+        label.delete(debugLbl)
+        debugLbl := label.new(bar_index, high, text=debugText, yloc=yloc.price, style=label.style_label_down, textcolor=color.white, color=debugColor, size=size.small)
+    
+    else if sellReady and not finalShortSignal
+        // Trend flipped to SHORT but signal blocked - show why
+        debugText := "❌ SHORT BLOCKED:\n"
+        if not shortOk
+            debugText += "MACD ✗\n"
+        if not adxOk
+            debugText += "ADX " + str.tostring(adxVal, "#.#") + " < " + str.tostring(adxMin) + " ✗\n"
+        if not shortBufferOk
+            debugText += "Entry Buffer ✗\n"
+        if not rsiShortOk
+            debugText += "RSI " + str.tostring(rsi14, "#.#") + " not in " + str.tostring(rsiShortMin) + "-" + str.tostring(rsiShortMax) + " ✗\n"
+        if not shortPositionOk
+            debugText += "Price Pos " + str.tostring(pricePosition, "#.#") + "% < " + str.tostring(shortPosMin) + "% ✗\n"
+        if not volumeOk
+            debugText += "Volume " + str.tostring(volumeRatio, "#.##") + " not in " + str.tostring(volMin) + "-" + str.tostring(volMax) + " ✗\n"
+        debugColor := color.new(color.orange, 30)
+        label.delete(debugLbl)
+        debugLbl := label.new(bar_index, low, text=debugText, yloc=yloc.price, style=label.style_label_up, textcolor=color.white, color=debugColor, size=size.small)
+
 plotshape(finalLongSignal, title="Buy Signal", location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.circle, size=size.small)
 plotshape(finalShortSignal, title="Sell Signal", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.circle, size=size.small)