docs: Document projection page v11.2 filter and cleanup trade exclusion (Jan 13, 2026)

- STARTING_CAPITAL set to 1437 (actual v11.2 start capital)
- START_DATE set to Jan 6, 2026 (v11.2 production start)
- getTradingStats filters for v11.2 indicator + recent manual trades
- Excludes cleanup trades (DUPLICATE_CLEANUP, PHANTOM_CLEANUP, phantom)
- Current v11.2 performance: 6 trades, 83.3% WR, +$406.04 P&L

.github/copilot-instructions.md

@@ -138,6 +138,26 @@
 - **Previous Config:** Was 5x fixed (Dec 26, 2025)
 - **Last Updated:** Jan 2, 2026
 
+### Projection Page & Analytics Stats (Jan 13, 2026 - UPDATED)
+- **Purpose:** 12-month financial projection dashboard showing actual vs planned progress
+- **File:** `app/projection/page.tsx`
+- **Configuration:**
+  * `STARTING_CAPITAL = 1437` (USD, actual capital when v11.2 went live)
+  * `START_DATE = '2026-01-06'` (v11.2 production start date)
+  * Fetches from: `/api/analytics/stats?days=365`
+- **Stats Filtering (lib/database/views.ts getTradingStats):**
+  * **v11.2 Filter:** Only includes trades with `indicatorVersion='v11.2'`
+  * **Manual Trades:** Includes `signalSource='manual'` from last 7 days only
+  * **Cleanup Exclusion:** Excludes phantom/cleanup trades: `exitReason NOT IN ['DUPLICATE_CLEANUP', 'PHANTOM_CLEANUP', 'phantom']`
+- **v11.2 Performance (Jan 6-13, 2026):**
+  * Trades: 6 (5 wins, 1 loss)
+  * Win Rate: 83.3%
+  * Total P&L: +$406.04
+  * Avg Win: $120.20, Avg Loss: -$194.96
+  * Current Capital: $1,802.40 (from Drift)
+- **Why Filter:** Previous stats included old indicator versions and phantom cleanup trades, skewing metrics
+- **Last Updated:** Jan 13, 2026
+
 ### Supporting Systems (All Active)
 - **Stop Hunt Revenge:** Quality 85+ signals get auto re-entry on reversal (90s confirmation)
 - **Smart Validation Queue:** Quality 50-89 signals queued for 90-minute price confirmation

app/projection/page.tsx

@@ -25,16 +25,27 @@ interface ScenarioResult {
   color: string
 }
 
+interface TradingStats {
+  totalPnL: number
+  totalTrades: number
+  winners: number
+  losers: number
+  winRate: number
+  monthlyPnL: { month: string; pnl: number; trades: number }[]
+}
+
 export default function ProjectionPage() {
   const [currentCapital, setCurrentCapital] = useState<number>(0)
   const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
   const [selectedScenario, setSelectedScenario] = useState<number>(70)
+  const [tradingStats, setTradingStats] = useState<TradingStats | null>(null)
+  const [totalDeposits, setTotalDeposits] = useState<number>(0)
 
   // Strategy Parameters (Jan 2026)
-  const STARTING_CAPITAL = 1400
+  const STARTING_CAPITAL = 1437  // Actual starting balance when v11.2 went live
   const TRADING_CAP = 50000
   const BTC_MONTHLY_GROWTH = 0.05 // 5% per month (60% annual)
-  const START_DATE = new Date('2026-01-15')
+  const START_DATE = new Date('2026-01-06')  // When v11.2 went live
   
   // Tiered Withdrawal Rules
   const getWithdrawal = (capital: number): number => {
@@ -46,20 +57,40 @@ export default function ProjectionPage() {
   }
 
   useEffect(() => {
-    async function fetchCurrentCapital() {
+    async function fetchData() {
       try {
-        const response = await fetch('/api/drift/account-summary')
-        const data = await response.json()
-        if (data.success) {
-          setCurrentCapital(data.freeCollateral || 0)
+        // Fetch account summary
+        const accountResponse = await fetch('/api/drift/account-summary')
+        const accountData = await accountResponse.json()
+        if (accountData.success) {
+          setCurrentCapital(accountData.drift?.freeCollateral || accountData.freeCollateral || 0)
+          // Total deposits from Drift
+          if (accountData.spotPositions?.usdc?.cumulativeDeposits) {
+            setTotalDeposits(parseInt(accountData.spotPositions.usdc.cumulativeDeposits) / 1e6)
+          }
+        }
+
+        // Fetch trading stats (all time, not just 30 days)
+        const statsResponse = await fetch('/api/analytics/stats?days=365')
+        const statsData = await statsResponse.json()
+        if (statsData.success && statsData.stats) {
+          const stats = statsData.stats.realTrades
+          setTradingStats({
+            totalPnL: parseFloat(stats.totalPnL?.replace('$', '') || '0'),
+            totalTrades: stats.total || 0,
+            winners: stats.winning || 0,
+            losers: stats.losing || 0,
+            winRate: parseFloat(stats.winRate?.replace('%', '') || '0'),
+            monthlyPnL: [] // Would need separate endpoint for monthly breakdown
+          })
         }
       } catch (error) {
-        console.error('Failed to fetch capital:', error)
+        console.error('Failed to fetch data:', error)
       } finally {
         setLoading(false)
       }
     }
-    fetchCurrentCapital()
+    fetchData()
   }, [])
 
   // Generate projection for a given monthly rate
@@ -226,6 +257,92 @@ export default function ProjectionPage() {
           </div>
         </div>
 
+        {/* ACTUAL PROGRESS vs PLAN */}
+        <div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-yellow-500/30">
+          <h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-yellow-400">📈 Actual Progress vs Plan</h2>
+          
+          {/* Summary Stats */}
+          <div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-5 gap-4 mb-6">
+            <div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
+              <div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Total P&L</div>
+              <div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${tradingStats?.totalPnL && tradingStats.totalPnL >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                {loading ? '...' : tradingStats ? formatCurrency(tradingStats.totalPnL) : '$0'}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+            <div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
+              <div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Total Trades</div>
+              <div className="text-2xl font-bold text-blue-400">
+                {loading ? '...' : tradingStats?.totalTrades || 0}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+            <div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
+              <div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Win Rate</div>
+              <div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${tradingStats?.winRate && tradingStats.winRate >= 50 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-yellow-400'}`}>
+                {loading ? '...' : tradingStats ? `${tradingStats.winRate.toFixed(1)}%` : '0%'}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+            <div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
+              <div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Capital Change</div>
+              <div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                {loading ? '...' : `${((currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL) / STARTING_CAPITAL * 100).toFixed(1)}%`}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+            <div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
+              <div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Net Profit</div>
+              <div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                {loading ? '...' : formatCurrency(currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL)}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+
+          {/* Plan Comparison */}
+          <div className="bg-gray-700/50 rounded-lg p-4">
+            <h3 className="text-md font-semibold mb-3 text-gray-300">Expected vs Actual (70%/mo target)</h3>
+            {(() => {
+              const daysElapsed = Math.max(0, Math.floor((new Date().getTime() - START_DATE.getTime()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24)))
+              const monthsElapsed = daysElapsed / 30
+              const dailyRate = Math.pow(1.70, 1/30) - 1 // 70%/month converted to daily compound rate
+              const expectedCapital = STARTING_CAPITAL * Math.pow(1 + dailyRate, daysElapsed)
+              const expectedGain = expectedCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL
+              const actualGain = currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL
+              const onTrack = currentCapital >= expectedCapital
+              
+              return (
+                <div className="space-y-2">
+                  <div className="flex justify-between items-center">
+                    <span className="text-gray-400">Days Since Start (Jan 6, 2026):</span>
+                    <span className="text-blue-400 font-bold">{daysElapsed} days ({monthsElapsed.toFixed(1)} months)</span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="flex justify-between items-center">
+                    <span className="text-gray-400">Expected Capital @ 70%/mo:</span>
+                    <span className="text-yellow-400 font-bold">{formatCurrency(expectedCapital)} (+{formatCurrency(expectedGain)})</span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="flex justify-between items-center">
+                    <span className="text-gray-400">Current Capital:</span>
+                    <span className={`font-bold ${actualGain >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                      {loading ? '...' : formatCurrency(currentCapital)} ({actualGain >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{formatCurrency(actualGain)})
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="flex justify-between items-center border-t border-gray-600 pt-2 mt-2">
+                    <span className="text-gray-400">Status vs Plan:</span>
+                    <span className={`font-bold ${onTrack ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                      {loading ? '...' : onTrack ? '✅ ON TRACK' : '⚠️ BEHIND'} 
+                      ({formatCurrency(currentCapital - expectedCapital)}, {((currentCapital / expectedCapital - 1) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="flex justify-between items-center">
+                    <span className="text-gray-400">Actual Daily Return:</span>
+                    <span className={`font-bold ${actualGain >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                      {loading || daysElapsed === 0 ? '...' : `${((Math.pow(currentCapital / STARTING_CAPITAL, 1 / Math.max(1, daysElapsed)) - 1) * 100).toFixed(2)}%/day`}
+                      {daysElapsed > 0 && !loading && ` (≈ ${((Math.pow(currentCapital / STARTING_CAPITAL, 30 / Math.max(1, daysElapsed)) - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}%/mo)`}
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              )
+            })()}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+
         {/* Scenario Selector */}
         <div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-gray-700">
           <h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">🎯 Select Monthly Return Scenario</h2>

lib/database/views.ts

@@ -130,7 +130,8 @@ export async function getTradesWithNetContext() {
 }
 
 /**
- * Get trading statistics (excludes test trades)
+ * Get trading statistics for v11.2 + recent manual trades
+ * Updated Jan 12, 2026: Now filters for v11.2 indicator version OR manual trades from last 7 days
  */
 export async function getTradingStats(days: number = 30) {
   const prisma = getPrismaClient()
@@ -138,14 +139,27 @@ export async function getTradingStats(days: number = 30) {
   const since = new Date()
   since.setDate(since.getDate() - days)
   
+  // For manual trades, only include those from last 7 days
+  const manualCutoff = new Date()
+  manualCutoff.setDate(manualCutoff.getDate() - 7)
+  
   const trades = await prisma.trade.findMany({
     where: {
       createdAt: { gte: since },
       status: 'closed',
       isTestTrade: false, // Real trades only
+      // Exclude phantom/cleanup trades - not real exits
+      exitReason: {
+        notIn: ['DUPLICATE_CLEANUP', 'PHANTOM_CLEANUP', 'phantom']
+      },
       OR: [
-        { signalSource: null }, // Old trades without signalSource
-        { signalSource: { not: 'manual' } }, // Exclude manual Telegram trades
+        // v11.2 indicator signals (any age within 'days' period)
+        { indicatorVersion: 'v11.2' },
+        // Manual trades only from last 7 days
+        { 
+          signalSource: 'manual',
+          createdAt: { gte: manualCutoff }
+        },
       ],
     },
   })