# Performance Analysis & Optimization Studies

**Data-driven insights for trading system optimization.**

This directory contains performance analyses, blocked signals tracking, profit projections, and diagnostic results. All files focus on measuring system performance and identifying optimization opportunities.

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## 📊 Key Documents

### **Performance Reviews**
- `PROFIT_PROJECTION_NOV24_2025.md` - Monthly profit projections and compound growth analysis
- `QUALITY_90_TP1_ONLY_ANALYSIS.md` - Analysis of quality 90+ signals with TP1-only exits
- `SIGNAL_QUALITY_TEST_RESULTS.md` - Signal quality scoring validation results

### **Blocked Signals Analysis**
- `BLOCKED_SIGNALS_TRACKING.md` - System for tracking signals blocked by quality filters
- `BLOCKED_SIGNAL_ANALYSIS_DEC2.md` - December 2 analysis of blocked signals
- `BLOCKED_SIGNAL_CORRECTED_ANALYSIS_DEC2.md` - Corrected analysis after data quality fixes

### **Adaptive Leverage**
- `LONG_ADAPTIVE_LEVERAGE_VERIFICATION.md` - Verification of LONG direction adaptive leverage
- `SHORT_ADAPTIVE_LEVERAGE_IMPLEMENTED.md` - SHORT direction adaptive leverage implementation

### **System Health**
- `DIAGNOSTIC_RESULTS_SUMMARY.md` - Comprehensive diagnostic test results
- `SAFETY_ANALYSIS.md` - Risk management and safety parameter analysis
- `RECOVERY_PLAN.md` - System recovery procedures after incidents
- `ANALYTICS_STATUS_AND_NEXT_STEPS.md` - Analytics dashboard status and roadmap

### **Strategic Planning**
- `CLEANUP_PLAN.md` - Documentation reorganization strategy (precursor to this structure)

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## 📈 Analysis Workflow

**1. Data Collection:**
- Trades executed with quality scores, ATR, ADX, RSI metrics
- Blocked signals saved to BlockedSignal table for comparison
- Position Manager tracks MAE (Max Adverse Excursion) and MFE (Max Favorable Excursion)

**2. Analysis Queries:**
```sql
-- Win rate by quality tier
SELECT 
  CASE 
    WHEN signalQualityScore >= 95 THEN '95-100'
    WHEN signalQualityScore >= 90 THEN '90-94'
    WHEN signalQualityScore >= 85 THEN '85-89'
    ELSE '60-84'
  END as tier,
  COUNT(*) as trades,
  ROUND(100.0 * SUM(CASE WHEN realizedPnL > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) / COUNT(*), 1) as win_rate,
  ROUND(SUM(realizedPnL), 2) as total_pnl
FROM "Trade"
WHERE exitReason IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY tier
ORDER BY MIN(signalQualityScore) DESC;
```

**3. Optimization:**
- Compare blocked vs executed signal performance
- Identify quality threshold sweet spots
- Validate parameter changes with 50-100 trade samples
- Document findings in this directory

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## 🎯 Current Focus (Dec 2025)

**Active Analyses:**
- Quality threshold optimization (LONG 90, SHORT 95 under evaluation)
- Adaptive leverage performance tracking (10x vs 5x tiers)
- Blocked signal win rate comparison (would-be winners vs actual blocks)
- Runner system effectiveness (40% runner with ATR trailing stop)

**Upcoming:**
- Multi-timeframe comparison (5min vs 15min vs 1H)
- MA crossover pattern validation (ADX weak→strong hypothesis)
- Smart Entry Validation Queue effectiveness tracking

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## 📝 Adding New Analyses

**Template Structure:**
```markdown
# [Analysis Title]

**Date:** [YYYY-MM-DD]
**Data Range:** [Date range or trade count]
**Objective:** [What you're analyzing]

## Executive Summary
[2-3 sentence key findings]

## Methodology
[How data was collected, SQL queries, filters applied]

## Results
[Tables, charts, statistics]

## Insights
[What the data means, patterns discovered]

## Recommendations
[Specific actions, parameter changes, threshold adjustments]

## Verification Required
[How to test recommendations, sample sizes needed]
```

**Naming Convention:**
- `[TOPIC]_ANALYSIS_[DATE].md` for dated analyses
- `[FEATURE]_VERIFICATION.md` for feature validation
- `[METRIC]_TRACKING.md` for ongoing measurement

---

## 🔍 Finding Specific Analyses

**By Topic:**
- Quality scores → `SIGNAL_QUALITY_*`, `QUALITY_90_*`
- Leverage → `*_ADAPTIVE_LEVERAGE_*`
- Blocked signals → `BLOCKED_SIGNAL_*`
- System health → `DIAGNOSTIC_*`, `SAFETY_*`, `RECOVERY_*`

**By Date:**
- All files include creation dates in content
- Most recent: December 2025 blocked signal analyses
- Historical: CLEANUP_PLAN.md (documentation strategy)

---

## ⚠️ Important Notes

**Data Integrity:**
- Always filter out `signalSource='manual'` for indicator analysis
- Use `WHERE timeframe='5'` for production signal analysis
- Exclude `blockReason='DATA_COLLECTION_ONLY'` for execution analysis

**Sample Sizes:**
- Minimum 50 trades for statistical validity
- Minimum 20 blocked signals for threshold analysis
- 100+ trades preferred for major parameter changes

**Real Money System:**
- Every analysis affects financial outcomes
- Always include "Expected Impact" section (dollar amounts)
- Document both upside potential and downside risk
- Require user approval for threshold changes >10 points

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See `../README.md` for overall documentation structure.