Files
trading_bot_v4/docs/BACKTESTER_STATUS.md
mindesbunister 5f7702469e remove: V10 momentum system - backtest proved it adds no value
- Removed v10 TradingView indicator (moneyline_v10_momentum_dots.pinescript)
- Removed v10 penalty system from signal-quality.ts (-30/-25 point penalties)
- Removed backtest result files (sweep_*.csv)
- Updated copilot-instructions.md to remove v10 references
- Simplified direction-specific quality thresholds (LONG 90+, SHORT 80+)

Rationale:
- 1,944 parameter combinations tested in backtest
- All top results IDENTICAL (568 trades, $498 P&L, 61.09% WR)
- Momentum parameters had ZERO impact on trade selection
- Profit factor 1.027 too low (barely profitable after fees)
- Max drawdown -$1,270 vs +$498 profit = terrible risk-reward
- v10 penalties were blocking good trades (bug: applied to wrong positions)

Keeping v9 as production system - simpler, proven, effective.
2025-11-28 22:35:32 +01:00

3.8 KiB
Raw Blame History

Backtester Status (Dec 2025)

Current Scope

  • Python package under backtester/ (isolated from trading bot)
  • CSV loader (data_loader.py) validates OHLCV inputs with timestamp filtering
  • Math utilities (math_utils.py) implement RMA, ATR, ADX helpers
  • Money Line indicator module (indicators/money_line.py) provides:
    • Configurable inputs for v9/v10 parity (MoneyLineInputs dataclass)
    • Primary + momentum signal detection (flip threshold, MA gap, ADX/volume filters)
    • Output MoneyLineSignal records with full metric context
  • Strategy simulator (simulator.py) that consumes OHLCV data + indicator signals and reproduces the ATR-based TP1/TP2 runner logic (including ADX runner stops, trailing stop, MAE/MFE tracking, and placeholder quality filters)
  • Command-line runner (cli.py) to execute quick tests against CSV data, print performance stats, and export trade logs
  • Binance OHLC exporter (scripts/export_binance_ohlcv.py) for refreshing SOL/USDT candle sets straight from the public REST API

Next Steps

  1. Wire production quality scoring + adaptive leverage gating into the simulator so backtests align with live trade filters
  2. Build batching utilities for multi-symbol / multi-parameter sweeps and persist the results to CSV/Parquet for analysis
  3. Compare Binance-derived backtests vs. Drift trade history to calibrate slippage/latency assumptions
  4. Extend CLI to accept saved indicator scores from the database once we export them (blocked signals, 1m data feed)

Simulator Plan

  • Core engine (backtester/simulator.py): iterate through OHLCV rows, feed them to the Money Line indicator, and execute trades using the same ATR TP1/TP2 runner + adaptive leverage stack used in production.
  • Position model: store entry price, size, ATR snapshot, TP1/TP2 levels, runner state, and MAE/MFE tracking so analytics match the bots database fields.
  • Execution hooks: reuse config helpers (quality scoring thresholds, adaptive leverage tiers) to determine whether signals become trades, ensuring apples-to-apples results for v9 vs v10.
  • Metrics output: aggregate PnL, win rate, profit factor, MAE/MFE distributions, and per-parameter summaries so sweeps can compare settings quickly.
  • Parameter sweeps: now that the simulator is deterministic, the remaining work is orchestration (CLI wrapper + reporting) so we can explore grids quickly.

Data Acquisition

  • Use the helper script to pull candles (example grabs ~4 months of SOL/USDT 5m bars):
source .venv/bin/activate
python scripts/export_binance_ohlcv.py \
  --symbol SOLUSDT \
  --interval 5m \
  --start 2025-08-01 \
  --end 2025-11-28 \
  --output data/solusdt_5m.csv
  • The script paginates Binances REST API (1000-candle chunks), pauses between requests to respect rate limits, and writes timestamped OHLCV columns that backtester.data_loader already expects.
  • Re-run the export whenever we want fresh data; adjust --start/--end to widen the window or target different regimes.

CLI Usage

Run a standalone backtest from the project root:

python -m backtester.cli \
  --csv data/solusdt_5m.csv \
  --symbol SOL-PERP \
  --timeframe 5 \
  --start 2025-09-01 \
  --end 2025-09-30 \
  --position-size 2500 \
  --max-bars 300 \
  --export-trades results/sol_sep.csv

The script uses the CSV loader (timestamped OHLCV data), Money Line indicator defaults, and simulator to print summary metrics. Exported CSVs contain per-trade fields (entry/exit, PnL, TP flags, MAE/MFE) for further analysis.

Notes

  • Package intentionally avoids dependencies beyond pandas/numpy for portability
  • No trading bot files modified; all work lives under backtester/
  • Update this document as modules (scoring, simulator, reporting) come online; immediate next edits should cover quality filters + sweep tooling once implemented.