Commit Graph

93 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
mindesbunister
54012ec402 fix: Analytics now shows current runner size instead of original position size
- Modified /api/analytics/last-trade to extract currentSize from configSnapshot.positionManagerState
- For open positions (exitReason === null), displays runner size after TP1 instead of original positionSizeUSD
- Falls back to original positionSizeUSD for closed positions or when Position Manager state unavailable
- Fixes UI showing 2.54 when actual runner is 2.59
- Provides accurate exposure visibility on analytics dashboard

Example: Position opens at 2.54, TP1 closes 70% → runner 2.59 → UI now shows 2.59
2025-11-15 23:14:17 +01:00
mindesbunister
be36d6aa86 feat: Add live position monitor to analytics dashboard
FEATURE: Real-time position monitoring with auto-refresh every 3 seconds

Implementation:
- New LivePosition interface for real-time trade data
- Auto-refresh hook fetches from /api/trading/positions every 3s
- Displays when Position Manager has active trades
- Shows: P&L (realized + unrealized), current price, TP/SL status, position age

Live Display Includes:
- Header: Symbol, direction (LONG/SHORT), leverage, age, price checks
- Real-time P&L: Profit %, account P&L %, color-coded green/red
- Price Info: Entry, current, position size (with % after TP1), total P&L
- Exit Targets: TP1 (✓ when hit), TP2/Runner, SL (@ B/E when moved)
- P&L Breakdown: Realized, unrealized, peak P&L

Technical:
- Added NEXT_PUBLIC_API_SECRET_KEY to .env for frontend auth
- Positions endpoint requires Bearer token authorization
- Updates every 3s via useEffect interval
- Only shows when monitoring.isActive && positions.length > 0

User Experience:
- Live pulsing green dot indicator
- Auto-updates without page refresh
- Position size shows % remaining after TP1 hit
- SL shows '@ B/E' badge when moved to breakeven
- Color-coded P&L (green profit, red loss)

Files:
- app/analytics/page.tsx: Live position monitor section + auto-refresh
- .env: Added NEXT_PUBLIC_API_SECRET_KEY

User Request: 'i would like to see a live status on the analytics page about an open position'
2025-11-15 18:29:33 +01:00
mindesbunister
fb4beee418 fix: Add periodic Drift reconnection to prevent memory leaks
- Memory leak identified: Drift SDK accumulates WebSocket subscriptions over time
- Root cause: accountUnsubscribe errors pile up when connections close/reconnect
- Symptom: Heap grows to 4GB+ after 10+ hours, eventual OOM crash
- Solution: Automatic reconnection every 4 hours to clear subscriptions

Changes:
- lib/drift/client.ts: Add reconnectTimer and scheduleReconnection()
- lib/drift/client.ts: Implement private reconnect() method
- lib/drift/client.ts: Clear timer in disconnect()
- app/api/drift/reconnect/route.ts: Manual reconnection endpoint (POST)
- app/api/drift/reconnect/route.ts: Reconnection status endpoint (GET)

Impact:
- Prevents JavaScript heap out of memory crashes
- Telegram bot timeouts resolved (was failing due to unresponsive bot)
- System will auto-heal every 4 hours instead of requiring manual restart
- Emergency manual reconnect available via API if needed

Tested: Container restarted successfully, no more WebSocket accumulation expected
2025-11-15 09:22:15 +01:00
mindesbunister
25776413d0 feat: Add signalSource field to identify manual vs TradingView trades
- Set signalSource='manual' for Telegram trades, 'tradingview' for TradingView
- Updated analytics queries to exclude manual trades from indicator analysis
- getTradingStats() filters manual trades (TradingView performance only)
- Version comparison endpoint filters manual trades
- Created comprehensive filtering guide: docs/MANUAL_TRADE_FILTERING.md
- Ensures clean data for indicator optimization without contamination
2025-11-14 22:55:14 +01:00
mindesbunister
c4c0c63de1 feat: Add Alchemy RPC diagnostic endpoint + complete investigation
- Created /api/testing/drift-init endpoint for systematic RPC testing
- Tested Alchemy: 17-71 subscription errors per init (49 avg over 5 runs)
- Tested Helius: 0 subscription errors, 800ms init time
- DEFINITIVE PROOF: Alchemy rate limits break Drift SDK initialization
- Root cause: Burst subscription pattern hits CUPS limits
- SDK doesn't retry failed subscriptions → unstable state
- Documented complete findings in docs/ALCHEMY_RPC_INVESTIGATION_RESULTS.md
- Investigation CLOSED - Helius is the only reliable solution
2025-11-14 22:20:04 +01:00
mindesbunister
78ab9e1a94 fix: Increase transaction confirmation timeout to 60s for Alchemy Growth
- Alchemy Growth (10,000 CU/s) can handle longer confirmation waits
- Increased timeout from 30s to 60s in both openPosition() and closePosition()
- Added debug logging to execute endpoint to trace hang points
- Configured dual RPC: Alchemy primary (transactions), Helius fallback (subscriptions)
- Previous 30s timeout was causing premature failures during Solana congestion
- This should resolve 'Transaction was not confirmed in 30.00 seconds' errors

Related: User reported n8n webhook returning 500 with timeout error
2025-11-14 20:42:59 +01:00
mindesbunister
7afd7d5aa1 feat: switch from Helius to Alchemy RPC provider
Changes:
- Updated SOLANA_RPC_URL to use Alchemy (https://solana-mainnet.g.alchemy.com/v2/...)
- Migrated from Helius free tier to Alchemy free tier
- Includes previous rate limit fixes (8s backoff, 2s operation delays)

Context:
- Helius free tier: 10 req/sec sustained, 100 req/sec burst
- Alchemy free tier: 300M compute units/month (more generous)
- User hit 239 rate limit errors in 10 minutes on Helius
- User registered Alchemy account and provided API key

Impact:
- Should significantly reduce 429 rate limit errors
- Better free tier limits for trading bot operations
- Combined with delay fixes for optimal RPC usage
2025-11-14 14:01:52 +01:00
mindesbunister
3cc3f1b871 fix: correct database column name in version comparison query
- Changed 'pricePosition' to 'pricePositionAtEntry' in extreme positions query
- Fixed database error: column "pricePosition" does not exist

Context:
- API was failing with Error 42703 (column not found)
- Database schema uses 'pricePositionAtEntry', not 'pricePosition'
- Version comparison section now loads correctly in analytics dashboard
2025-11-14 13:38:33 +01:00
mindesbunister
3aa704801e fix: resolve TypeScript errors in version comparison API
- Fixed extremePositionStats type to match actual SQL query fields
- Changed .count to .trades (query returns 'trades' column, not 'count')
- Simplified extreme positions metrics (removed missing avg_adx and weak_adx_count)
- Fixed version comparison fallback from 'v1' to 'unknown'

Technical:
- SQL query only returns: version, trades, wins, total_pnl, avg_quality_score
- Code was trying to access non-existent fields causing TypeScript errors
- Build now succeeds, container deployed
2025-11-14 13:28:08 +01:00
mindesbunister
2cda751dc4 fix: update analytics UI to show TradingView indicator versions correctly
- Changed section title: 'Signal Quality Logic Versions' → 'TradingView Indicator Versions'
- Updated current version marker: v3 → v6
- Added version sorting: v6 first, then v5, then unknown
- Updated description to reflect indicator strategy comparison

Context:
- User clarified: V4 display = v6 data, V1 display = v5 data
- Dashboard now shows indicator versions in proper order
- 154 unknown (pre-tracking), 15 v6 (HalfTrend), 4 v5 (Buy/Sell)
2025-11-14 13:15:30 +01:00
mindesbunister
6e8da10f7d fix: switch version comparison to use indicatorVersion instead of signalQualityVersion
- Changed SQL queries to use indicatorVersion (TradingView strategy versions)
- Updated version descriptions to only show v5/v6/unknown
- v5 = Buy/Sell Signal strategy (pre-Nov 12)
- v6 = HalfTrend + BarColor strategy (Nov 12+)
- unknown = Pre-version-tracking trades

Context:
- User clarified: 'v4 is v6. the version reflects the moneyline version'
- Dashboard should show indicator strategy versions, not scoring logic versions
2025-11-14 13:12:30 +01:00
mindesbunister
08ee899164 feat: update analytics version descriptions
- Added v4 description: 'Frequency penalties + blocked signals tracking (Nov 11-14)'
- Added v5 description: 'Buy/Sell Signal strategy (pre-Nov 12)'
- Added v6 description: 'HalfTrend + BarColor strategy (Nov 12+)'

Context:
- v1-v4 = signalQualityVersion (scoring logic evolution)
- v5-v6 = indicatorVersion (TradingView strategy versions)
- Dashboard will now correctly label both types of versions
2025-11-14 13:07:01 +01:00
mindesbunister
ebe5e1ab5f feat: Add Dynamic ATR Analysis UI to TP/SL Optimization page
- Added dynamicATRAnalysis interface to page component
- New section displays after Current Configuration Performance
- Progress bar shows data collection: 14/30 trades (46.7%)
- Side-by-side comparison: Fixed vs Dynamic ATR targets
- Highlights advantage: +.72 (+39.8%) with current sample
- Color-coded recommendation: Yellow (WAIT) → Green (IMPLEMENT)
- Shows avg ATR (0.32%), dynamic TP2 (0.64%), dynamic SL (0.48%)
- Auto-updates as more v6 trades are collected
- Responsive design with gradient backgrounds

Enables user to track progress toward 30-trade threshold for implementation decision
2025-11-14 09:09:08 +01:00
mindesbunister
28c1110a85 feat: Integrate dynamic ATR analysis into TP/SL optimization endpoint
- Added dynamicATRAnalysis section to /api/analytics/tp-sl-optimization
- Analyzes v6 trades with ATR data to compare fixed vs dynamic targets
- Dynamic targets: TP2=2x ATR, SL=1.5x ATR (from config)
- Shows +39.8% advantage with 14 trades (.72 improvement)
- Includes data sufficiency check (need 30+ trades)
- Recommendation logic: WAIT/IMPLEMENT/CONSIDER/NEUTRAL based on sample size and advantage
- Returns detailed metrics: sample size, avg ATR, hit rates, P&L comparison
- Integrates seamlessly with existing MAE/MFE analysis

Current status: 14/30 trades collected, insufficient for implementation
Expected: Frontend will display this data to track progress toward 30-trade threshold
2025-11-14 09:03:15 +01:00
mindesbunister
795026aed1 fix: use Pyth price data for flip-flop context check
CRITICAL FIX: Previous implementation showed incorrect price movements
(100% instead of 0.2%) because currentPrice wasn't available in
check-risk endpoint.

Changes:
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: Fetch current price from Pyth
  price monitor before quality scoring
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Added validation and detailed logging
  - Check if currentPrice available, apply penalty if missing
  - Log actual prices: $X → $Y = Z%
  - Include prices in penalty/allowance messages

Example outputs:
 Flip-flop in tight range: 4min ago, only 0.20% move ($143.86 → $143.58) (-25 pts)
 Direction change after 10.2% move ($170.00 → $153.00, 12min ago) - reversal allowed

This fixes the false positive that allowed a 0.2% flip-flop earlier today.

Deployed: 09:42 CET Nov 14, 2025
2025-11-14 08:23:04 +01:00
mindesbunister
77a9437d26 feat: add price movement context to flip-flop detection
Improved flip-flop penalty logic to distinguish between:
- Chop (bad): <2% price move from opposite signal → -25 penalty
- Reversal (good): ≥2% price move from opposite signal → allowed

Changes:
- lib/database/trades.ts: getRecentSignals() now returns oppositeDirectionPrice
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Added currentPrice parameter, price movement check
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: Added currentPrice to RiskCheckRequest interface
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: Pass openResult.fillPrice as currentPrice
- app/api/analytics/reentry-check/route.ts: Pass currentPrice from metrics

Example scenarios:
- ETH $170 SHORT → $153 LONG (10% move) = reversal allowed 
- ETH $154.50 SHORT → $154.30 LONG (0.13% move) = chop blocked ⚠️

Deployed: 09:18 CET Nov 14, 2025
Container: trading-bot-v4
2025-11-14 07:46:28 +01:00
mindesbunister
111e3ed12a feat: implement signal frequency penalties for flip-flop detection
PHASE 1 IMPLEMENTATION:
Signal quality scoring now checks database for recent trading patterns
and applies penalties to prevent overtrading and flip-flop losses.

NEW PENALTIES:
1. Overtrading: 3+ signals in 30min → -20 points
   - Detects consolidation zones where system generates excessive signals
   - Counts both executed trades AND blocked signals

2. Flip-flop: Opposite direction in last 15min → -25 points
   - Prevents rapid long→short→long whipsaws
   - Example: SHORT at 10:00, LONG at 10:12 = blocked

3. Alternating pattern: Last 3 trades flip directions → -30 points
   - Detects choppy market conditions
   - Pattern like long→short→long = system getting chopped

DATABASE INTEGRATION:
- New function: getRecentSignals() in lib/database/trades.ts
- Queries last 30min of trades + blocked signals
- Checks last 3 executed trades for alternating pattern
- Zero performance impact (fast indexed queries)

ARCHITECTURE:
- scoreSignalQuality() now async (requires database access)
- All callers updated: check-risk, execute, reentry-check
- skipFrequencyCheck flag available for special cases
- Frequency penalties included in qualityResult breakdown

EXPECTED IMPACT:
- Eliminate overnight flip-flop losses (like SOL $141-145 chop)
- Reduce overtrading during sideways consolidation
- Better capital preservation in non-trending markets
- Should improve win rate by 5-10% by avoiding worst setups

TESTING:
- Deploy and monitor next 5 signals in choppy markets
- Check logs for frequency penalty messages
- Analyze if blocked signals would have been losers

Files changed:
- lib/database/trades.ts: Added getRecentSignals()
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Made async, added frequency checks
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: await + symbol parameter
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: await + symbol parameter
- app/api/analytics/reentry-check/route.ts: await + skipFrequencyCheck
2025-11-14 06:41:03 +01:00
mindesbunister
6590f4fb1e feat: phantom trade auto-closure system
- Auto-close phantom positions immediately via market order
- Return HTTP 200 (not 500) to allow n8n workflow continuation
- Save phantom trades to database with full P&L tracking
- Exit reason: 'manual' category for phantom auto-closes
- Protects user during unavailable hours (sleeping, no phone)
- Add Docker build best practices to instructions (background + tail)
- Document phantom system as Critical Component #1
- Add Common Pitfall #30: Phantom notification workflow

Why auto-close:
- User can't always respond to phantom alerts
- Unmonitored position = unlimited risk exposure
- Better to exit with small loss/gain than leave exposed
- Re-entry possible if setup actually good

Files changed:
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: Auto-close logic
- .github/copilot-instructions.md: Documentation + build pattern
2025-11-14 05:37:51 +01:00
mindesbunister
bd9633fbc2 CRITICAL FIX: Prevent unprotected positions via database-first pattern
Root Cause:
- Execute endpoint saved to database AFTER adding to Position Manager
- Database save failures were silently caught and ignored
- API returned success even when DB save failed
- Container restarts lost in-memory Position Manager state
- Result: Unprotected positions with no TP/SL monitoring

Fixes Applied:

1. Database-First Pattern (app/api/trading/execute/route.ts):
   - MOVED createTrade() BEFORE positionManager.addTrade()
   - If database save fails, return HTTP 500 with critical error
   - Error message: 'CLOSE POSITION MANUALLY IMMEDIATELY'
   - Position Manager only tracks database-persisted trades
   - Ensures container restarts can restore all positions

2. Transaction Timeout (lib/drift/orders.ts):
   - Added 30s timeout to confirmTransaction() in closePosition()
   - Prevents API from hanging during network congestion
   - Uses Promise.race() pattern for timeout enforcement

3. Telegram Error Messages (telegram_command_bot.py):
   - Parse JSON for ALL responses (not just 200 OK)
   - Extract detailed error messages from 'message' field
   - Shows critical warnings to user immediately
   - Fail-open: proceeds if analytics check fails

4. Position Manager (lib/trading/position-manager.ts):
   - Move lastPrice update to TOP of monitoring loop
   - Ensures /status endpoint always shows current price

Verification:
- Test trade cmhxj8qxl0000od076m21l58z executed successfully
- Database save completed BEFORE Position Manager tracking
- SL triggered correctly at -$4.21 after 15 minutes
- All protection systems working as expected

Impact:
- Eliminates risk of unprotected positions
- Provides immediate critical warnings if DB fails
- Enables safe container restarts with full position recovery
- Verified with live test trade on production

See: CRITICAL_INCIDENT_UNPROTECTED_POSITION.md for full incident report
2025-11-13 15:56:28 +01:00
mindesbunister
74df461556 fix: use actual symbol-specific leverage in notifications
Fixed Telegram notification showing wrong leverage (10x instead of 20x).

Problem:
- SOL trades use SOLANA_LEVERAGE=20x (per-symbol override)
- API response was returning config.leverage (global default 10x)
- n8n workflow displayed incorrect leverage value

Changes:
- Line 345: Use 'leverage' variable (from getPositionSizeForSymbol)
- Line 448: ActiveTrade uses actual leverage
- Line 522: ExecuteTradeResponse uses actual leverage
- Line 557: Database createTrade() uses actual leverage

Now notifications correctly show 20x for SOL trades.
2025-11-12 11:42:51 +01:00
mindesbunister
2c6295367c feat: add indicatorVersion tracking to backend
Added indicatorVersion field to track which TradingView indicator version
generated each signal (v5, v6, etc.)

Changes:
- Updated ExecuteTradeRequest interface to include indicatorVersion field
- Added indicatorVersion to both createTrade() calls with default 'v5' fallback
- Field already exists in Prisma schema (indicatorVersion String?)
- Defaults to 'v5' for backward compatibility with old alerts

This enables comparison of indicator performance:
- v5: Original Money Line indicator
- v6: Improved version with 100-bar price position filter

Works alongside existing signalQualityVersion (v4) which tracks backend
scoring algorithm changes. Two separate version fields:
1. indicatorVersion = TradingView Pine Script version (v5/v6)
2. signalQualityVersion = Backend scoring logic version (v4)

Frontend can now filter/compare trades by indicator version in analytics.
2025-11-12 08:22:06 +01:00
mindesbunister
6a192bfb76 docs: update copilot-instructions for ATR trailing + dynamic runner% + rate limits
Updated .github/copilot-instructions.md to reflect recent system improvements:

**ATR-Based Trailing Stop:**
- Dynamic trailing calculation formula documented
- Configurable runner % (default 25%, adjustable via TAKE_PROFIT_1_SIZE_PERCENT)
- All UI displays now dynamically calculate runner% as 100 - TP1_SIZE
- Removed hardcoded '25%' references, replaced with dynamic language

**Rate Limit Monitoring:**
- NEW Section #4: Rate Limit Monitoring
- Exponential backoff mechanism (2s→4s→8s)
- Database logging (3 event types: hit/recovered/exhausted)
- Analytics endpoint for monitoring
- Links to RATE_LIMIT_MONITORING.md for SQL queries

**Section Renumbering:**
- Old Section #4 (Order Placement) → Section #5
- Old Section #5 (Database) → Section #6
- Maintains logical flow and consistency

**Updated References:**
- Exit Strategy: Dynamic runner% description
- Position Manager: ATR trailing formula + on-chain sync notes
- Common Pitfalls: Dynamic runner % configuration notes
- Roadmap: Phase 5 shows configurable runner with formula

All documentation now accurately reflects user's 70/30 TP1/Runner split
and recent infrastructure improvements (ATR trailing, rate limits).

Related: settings UI updated in previous commit (app/settings/page.tsx)
2025-11-11 20:40:05 +01:00
mindesbunister
03e91fc18d feat: ATR-based trailing stop + rate limit monitoring
MAJOR FIXES:
- ATR-based trailing stop for runners (was fixed 0.3%, now adapts to volatility)
- Fixes runners with +7-9% MFE exiting for losses
- Typical improvement: 2.24x more room (0.3% → 0.67% at 0.45% ATR)
- Enhanced rate limit logging with database tracking
- New /api/analytics/rate-limits endpoint for monitoring

DETAILS:
- Position Manager: Calculate trailing as (atrAtEntry / price × 100) × multiplier
- Config: TRAILING_STOP_ATR_MULTIPLIER=1.5, MIN=0.25%, MAX=0.9%
- Settings UI: Added ATR multiplier controls
- Rate limits: Log hits/recoveries/exhaustions to SystemEvent table
- Documentation: ATR_TRAILING_STOP_FIX.md + RATE_LIMIT_MONITORING.md

IMPACT:
- Runners can now capture big moves (like morning's $172→$162 SOL drop)
- Rate limit visibility prevents silent failures
- Data-driven optimization for RPC endpoint health
2025-11-11 14:51:41 +01:00
mindesbunister
ba13c20c60 feat: implement blocked signals tracking system
- Add BlockedSignal table with 25 fields for comprehensive signal analysis
- Track all blocked signals with metrics (ATR, ADX, RSI, volume, price position)
- Store quality scores, block reasons, and detailed breakdowns
- Include future fields for automated price analysis (priceAfter1/5/15/30Min)
- Restore signalQualityVersion field to Trade table

Database changes:
- New table: BlockedSignal with indexes on symbol, createdAt, score, blockReason
- Fixed schema drift from manual changes

API changes:
- Modified check-risk endpoint to save blocked signals automatically
- Fixed hasContextMetrics variable scope (moved to line 209)
- Save blocks for: quality score too low, cooldown period, hourly limit
- Use config.minSignalQualityScore instead of hardcoded 60

Database helpers:
- Added createBlockedSignal() function with try/catch safety
- Added getRecentBlockedSignals(limit) for queries
- Added getBlockedSignalsForAnalysis(olderThanMinutes) for automation

Documentation:
- Created BLOCKED_SIGNALS_TRACKING.md with SQL queries and analysis workflow
- Created SIGNAL_QUALITY_OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP.md with 5-phase plan
- Documented data-first approach: collect 10-20 signals before optimization

Rationale:
Only 2 historical trades scored 60-64 (insufficient sample size for threshold decision).
Building data collection infrastructure before making premature optimizations.

Phase 1 (current): Collect blocked signals for 1-2 weeks
Phase 2 (next): Analyze patterns and make data-driven threshold decision
Phase 3-5 (future): Automation and ML optimization
2025-11-11 11:49:21 +01:00
mindesbunister
ee89d15b8b Use percentage aware sizing in execute endpoint 2025-11-10 20:27:52 +01:00
mindesbunister
43b688d9f2 Fix test trade endpoint to honor TP2 runner configuration 2025-11-10 19:55:24 +01:00
mindesbunister
c3a053df63 CRITICAL FIX: Use ?? instead of || for tp2SizePercent to allow 0 value
BUG FOUND:
Line 558: tp2SizePercent: config.takeProfit2SizePercent || 100

When config.takeProfit2SizePercent = 0 (TP2-as-runner system), JavaScript's ||
operator treats 0 as falsy and falls back to 100, causing TP2 to close 100%
of remaining position instead of activating trailing stop.

IMPACT:
- On-chain orders placed correctly (line 481 uses ?? correctly)
- Position Manager reads from DB and expects TP2 to close position
- Result: User sees TWO take-profit orders instead of runner system

FIX:
Changed both tp1SizePercent and tp2SizePercent to use ?? operator:
- tp1SizePercent: config.takeProfit1SizePercent ?? 75
- tp2SizePercent: config.takeProfit2SizePercent ?? 0

This allows 0 value to be saved correctly for TP2-as-runner system.

VERIFICATION NEEDED:
Current open SHORT position in database has tp2SizePercent=100 from before
this fix. Next trade will use correct runner system.
2025-11-10 19:46:03 +01:00
mindesbunister
089308a07e Add Position Sync feature for recovering tracking after partial fills
- New /api/trading/sync-positions endpoint (no auth)
- Fetches actual Drift positions and compares with Position Manager
- Removes stale tracking, adds missing positions with calculated TP/SL
- Settings UI: Orange 'Sync Positions' button added
- CLI script: scripts/sync-positions.sh for terminal access
- Full documentation in docs/guides/POSITION_SYNC_GUIDE.md
- Quick reference: POSITION_SYNC_QUICK_REF.md
- Updated AI instructions with pitfall #23

Problem solved: Manual Telegram trades with partial fills can cause
Position Manager to lose tracking, leaving positions without software-
based stop loss protection. This feature restores dual-layer protection.

Note: Docker build not picking up route yet (cache issue), needs investigation
2025-11-10 17:05:32 +01:00
mindesbunister
988fdb9ea4 Fix runner system + strengthen anti-chop filter
Three critical bugs fixed:
1. P&L calculation (65x inflation) - now uses collateralUSD not notional
2. handlePostTp1Adjustments() - checks tp2SizePercent===0 for runner mode
3. JavaScript || operator bug - changed to ?? for proper 0 handling

Signal quality improvements:
- Added anti-chop filter: price position <40% + ADX <25 = -25 points
- Prevents range-bound flip-flops (caught all 3 today)
- Backtest: 43.8% → 55.6% win rate, +86% profit per trade

Changes:
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: RANGE-BOUND CHOP penalty
- lib/drift/orders.ts: Fixed P&L calculation + transaction confirmation
- lib/trading/position-manager.ts: Runner system logic
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: || to ?? for tp2SizePercent
- app/api/trading/test/route.ts: || to ?? for tp1/tp2SizePercent
- prisma/schema.prisma: Added collateralUSD field
- scripts/fix_pnl_calculations.sql: Historical P&L correction
2025-11-10 15:36:51 +01:00
mindesbunister
e31a3f8433 fix: Update settings UI to show % instead of USD when percentage mode active
- Add SOLANA_USE_PERCENTAGE_SIZE and ETHEREUM_USE_PERCENTAGE_SIZE to TradingSettings interface
- Make SOL/ETH Position Size labels dynamic based on percentage mode
- Adjust max value (100 for %, 10000 for USD) based on mode
- Update descriptions to match mode (% of collateral vs fixed capital)
2025-11-10 13:40:28 +01:00
mindesbunister
6f0a1bb49b feat: Implement percentage-based position sizing
- Add usePercentageSize flag to SymbolSettings and TradingConfig
- Add calculateActualPositionSize() and getActualPositionSizeForSymbol() helpers
- Update execute and test endpoints to calculate position size from free collateral
- Add SOLANA_USE_PERCENTAGE_SIZE, ETHEREUM_USE_PERCENTAGE_SIZE, USE_PERCENTAGE_SIZE env vars
- Configure SOL to use 100% of portfolio (auto-adjusts to available balance)
- Fix TypeScript errors: replace fillNotionalUSD with actualSizeUSD
- Remove signalQualityVersion and fullyClosed references (not in interfaces)
- Add comprehensive documentation in PERCENTAGE_SIZING_FEATURE.md

Benefits:
- Prevents insufficient collateral errors by using available balance
- Auto-scales positions as account grows/shrinks
- Maintains risk proportional to capital
- Flexible per-symbol configuration (SOL percentage, ETH fixed)
2025-11-10 13:35:10 +01:00
mindesbunister
d2fbd125a0 fix: Make minSignalQualityScore configurable via settings + anti-chop improvements
CRITICAL BUG FIX:
- Settings page saved MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE to .env but check-risk had hardcoded value
- Now reads from config.minSignalQualityScore (defaults to 65, editable via /settings)
- Prevents settings changes from being ignored after restart

ANTI-CHOP FILTER FIXES:
- Fixed volume breakout bonus conflicting with anti-chop filter
- Volume breakout now requires ADX > 18 (trending market)
- Prevents high volume + low ADX from getting rewarded instead of penalized
- Anti-chop filter now properly blocks whipsaw traps at score 60

TESTING INFRASTRUCTURE:
- Added backtest script showing +17.1% P&L improvement (saved $242 in losses)
- Added test-signals.sh for comprehensive signal quality validation
- Added test-recent-signals.sh for analyzing actual trading session signals
- All tests passing: timeframe awareness, anti-chop, score thresholds

CHANGES:
- config/trading.ts: Added minSignalQualityScore to interface and defaults
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: Use config value instead of hardcoded 65
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Fixed volume breakout bonus logic
- .env: Added MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE=65
- scripts/: Added comprehensive testing tools

BACKTEST RESULTS (Last 30 trades):
- Old system (score ≥60): $1,412.79 P&L
- New system (score ≥65 + anti-chop): $1,654.79 P&L
- Improvement: +$242.00 (+17.1%)
- Blocked 5 losing trades, missed 0 winners
2025-11-10 11:22:52 +01:00
mindesbunister
4b11186d16 Fix: Add timeframe-aware signal quality scoring for 5min charts
PROBLEM:
- Long signal (ADX 15.7, ATR 0.35%) blocked with score 45/100
- Missed major +3% runup, lost -2 on short that didn't flip
- Scoring logic treated all timeframes identically (daily chart thresholds)

ROOT CAUSE:
- ADX < 18 always scored -15 points regardless of timeframe
- 5min charts naturally have lower ADX (12-22 healthy range)
- copilot-instructions mentioned timeframe awareness but wasn't implemented

FIX:
- Add timeframe parameter to RiskCheckRequest interface
- Update scoreSignalQuality() with timeframe-aware ADX thresholds:
  * 5min/15min: ADX 12-22 healthy (+5), <12 weak (-15), >22 strong (+15)
  * Higher TF: ADX 18-25 healthy (+5), <18 weak (-15), >25 strong (+15)
- Pass timeframe from n8n workflow through check-risk and execute
- Update both Check Risk nodes in Money Machine workflow

IMPACT:
Your blocked signal (ADX 15.7 on 5min) now scores:
- Was: 50 + 5 - 15 + 0 + 0 + 5 = 45 (BLOCKED)
- Now: 50 + 5 + 5 + 0 + 0 + 5 = 65 (PASSES)

This 20-point improvement from timeframe awareness would have caught the runup.
2025-11-10 07:34:21 +01:00
mindesbunister
22195ed34c Fix P&L calculation and signal flip detection
- Fix external closure P&L using tp1Hit flag instead of currentSize
- Add direction change detection to prevent false TP1 on signal flips
- Signal flips now recorded with accurate P&L as 'manual' exits
- Add retry logic with exponential backoff for Solana RPC rate limits
- Create /api/trading/cancel-orders endpoint for manual cleanup
- Improves data integrity for win/loss statistics
2025-11-09 17:59:50 +01:00
mindesbunister
4d533ccb53 fix: Remove obsolete fields from test-db ActiveTrade object
- Remove atrAtEntry and runnerTrailingPercent fields
- These don't exist in ActiveTrade interface
- Fixes TypeScript build error
2025-11-08 11:05:19 +01:00
mindesbunister
2f80c2133c fix: Remove fallback that breaks TP2-as-runner system
- Change tp2SizePercent fallback from || 100 to ?? 0
- Allows 0 value to pass through (means 'activate trailing stop, don't close')
- Fixes bug where TP2 was closing 100% of remaining position
- Now correctly leaves 25% runner after TP1 closes 75%
- Applied to both execute and test endpoints
2025-11-08 10:59:58 +01:00
mindesbunister
9b767342dc feat: Implement re-entry analytics system with fresh TradingView data
- Add market data cache service (5min expiry) for storing TradingView metrics
- Create /api/trading/market-data webhook endpoint for continuous data updates
- Add /api/analytics/reentry-check endpoint for validating manual trades
- Update execute endpoint to auto-cache metrics from incoming signals
- Enhance Telegram bot with pre-execution analytics validation
- Support --force flag to override analytics blocks
- Use fresh ADX/ATR/RSI data when available, fallback to historical
- Apply performance modifiers: -20 for losing streaks, +10 for winning
- Minimum re-entry score 55 (vs 60 for new signals)
- Fail-open design: proceeds if analytics unavailable
- Show data freshness and source in Telegram responses
- Add comprehensive setup guide in docs/guides/REENTRY_ANALYTICS_QUICKSTART.md

Phase 1 implementation for smart manual trade validation.
2025-11-07 20:40:07 +01:00
mindesbunister
6d5991172a feat: Implement ATR-based dynamic TP2 system and fix P&L calculation
- Add ATR-based dynamic TP2 scaling from 0.7% to 3.0% based on volatility
- New config options: useAtrBasedTargets, atrMultiplierForTp2, minTp2Percent, maxTp2Percent
- Enhanced settings UI with ATR controls and updated risk calculator
- Fix external closure P&L calculation using unrealized P&L instead of volatile current price
- Update execute and test endpoints to use calculateDynamicTp2() function
- Maintain 25% runner system for capturing extended moves (4-5% targets)
- Add environment variables for ATR-based configuration
- Better P&L accuracy for manual position closures
2025-11-07 17:01:22 +01:00
mindesbunister
5acc61cf66 Fix P&L calculation and update Copilot instructions
- Fix P&L calculation in Position Manager to use actual entry vs exit price instead of SDK's potentially incorrect realizedPnL
- Calculate actual profit percentage and apply to closed position size for accurate dollar amounts
- Update database record for last trade from incorrect 6.58 to actual .66 P&L
- Update .github/copilot-instructions.md to reflect TP2-as-runner system changes
- Document 25% runner system (5x larger than old 5%) with ATR-based trailing
- Add critical P&L calculation pattern to common pitfalls section
- Mark Phase 5 complete in development roadmap
2025-11-07 16:24:43 +01:00
mindesbunister
6983f37a59 Fix Prisma Decimal type handling in version comparison API
- Changed numeric fields from typed as number to 'any' in raw query results
- Properly convert Prisma Decimal/BigInt types to JavaScript numbers
- Fixes TypeError: e.totalPnL.toFixed is not a function
- All numeric values (totalPnL, avgPnL, avgADX, etc.) now converted with Number()

Issue: Prisma returns Decimal objects from aggregation queries which don't have
toFixed() method. Frontend expects plain numbers for .toFixed(2) formatting.
2025-11-07 13:11:04 +01:00
mindesbunister
711ff9aaf4 Add signal quality version comparison to analytics dashboard
- Created /api/analytics/version-comparison endpoint
- Shows performance metrics for v1, v2, v3 scoring logic
- Compares: trade count, win rate, P&L, quality scores, MFE/MAE
- Special focus on extreme positions (< 15% or > 85% range)
- Tracks weak ADX count (< 18) for each version
- Visual indicators for current version (v3)
- Data collection progress notice for v3 (need 20+ trades)
- Legend explaining MFE, MAE, extreme positions, weak ADX

Enables data-driven optimization by comparing algorithm performance
with clean, version-tagged datasets.
2025-11-07 13:05:48 +01:00
mindesbunister
625dc44c59 Add signal quality version tracking to database
- Added signalQualityVersion field to Trade model
- Tracks which scoring logic version was used for each trade
- v1: Original logic (price position < 5% threshold)
- v2: Added volume compensation for low ADX
- v3: CURRENT - Stricter logic requiring ADX > 18 for extreme positions (< 15%)

This enables future analysis to:
- Compare performance between logic versions
- Filter trades by scoring algorithm
- Data-driven improvements based on clean datasets

All new trades will be marked as v3. Old trades remain null/v1 for comparison.
2025-11-07 12:56:35 +01:00
mindesbunister
0365560c5b Add timeframe-aware signal quality scoring for 5min charts
- Lower ADX/ATR thresholds for 5min timeframe (ADX 12-22, ATR 0.2-0.7%)
- Add anti-chop filter: -20 points for extreme sideways (ADX<10, ATR<0.25, Vol<0.9)
- Pass timeframe parameter through check-risk and execute endpoints
- Fixes flip-flop losses from overly strict 5min filters
- Higher timeframes unchanged (still use ADX 18+, ATR 0.4+)

5min scoring now:
- ADX 12-15: moderate trend (+5)
- ADX 22+: strong trend (+15)
- ATR 0.2-0.35: acceptable (+5)
- ATR 0.35+: healthy (+10)
- Extreme chop penalty prevents whipsaw trades
2025-11-07 08:56:19 +01:00
mindesbunister
6c7eaf5f04 Add TP1/SL consistency check on trade restore 2025-11-06 12:18:31 +01:00
mindesbunister
a100945864 Enhance trailing stop with ATR-based sizing 2025-11-05 15:28:12 +01:00
mindesbunister
cbb6592153 fix: correct PnL math and add health probe 2025-11-05 07:58:27 +01:00
mindesbunister
02193b7dce fix(critical): Unify quality score calculation across check-risk and execute
PROBLEM:
- check-risk calculated quality score: 60, 70 (PASSED)
- execute calculated quality score: 35, 45 (should have BLOCKED)
- Two different functions with different logic caused trades to bypass validation

ROOT CAUSE:
Two separate scoring functions existed:
1. scoreSignalQuality() in check-risk (detailed, 95% price threshold)
2. calculateQualityScore() in execute (simpler, 90% price threshold)

Example with pricePosition=96.4%, volumeRatio=0.9:
- check-risk: Checks >95, volumeRatio>1.4 failed → -15 + bonuses = 60  PASSED
- execute: Checks >90 → -15 + bonuses = 35  Should block but already opened

SOLUTION:
1. Created lib/trading/signal-quality.ts with unified scoreSignalQuality()
2. Both endpoints now import and use SAME function
3. Consistent scoring logic: 95% price threshold, volume breakout bonus
4. Returns detailed reasons for debugging

IMPACT:
- Quality scores now MATCH between check-risk and execute
- No more trades bypassing validation due to calculation differences
- Better debugging with quality reasons logged

Files changed:
- NEW: lib/trading/signal-quality.ts (unified scoring function)
- MODIFIED: app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts (import shared function)
- MODIFIED: app/api/trading/execute/route.ts (import shared function)
- REMOVED: Duplicate calculateQualityScore() from execute
- REMOVED: Duplicate scoreSignalQuality() from check-risk
2025-11-04 11:40:25 +01:00
mindesbunister
8bc08955cc feat: Add phantom trade detection and database tracking
- Detect position size mismatches (>50% variance) after opening
- Save phantom trades to database with expectedSizeUSD, actualSizeUSD, phantomReason
- Return error from execute endpoint to prevent Position Manager tracking
- Add comprehensive documentation of phantom trade issue and solution
- Enable data collection for pattern analysis and future optimization

Fixes oracle price lag issue during volatile markets where transactions
confirm but positions don't actually open at expected size.
2025-11-04 10:34:38 +01:00
mindesbunister
f682b93a1e Fix: Signal flip race condition - properly coordinate Position Manager during opposite signal closure
- Remove trade from Position Manager BEFORE closing Drift position (prevents race condition)
- Explicitly save closure to database with proper P&L calculation
- Mark flipped positions as 'manual' exit reason
- Increase delay from 1s to 2s for better on-chain confirmation
- Preserve MAE/MFE data in closure records

Fixes issue where SHORT signal would close LONG but not properly track the new SHORT position.
Database now correctly records both old position closure and new position opening.
2025-11-03 20:23:42 +01:00
mindesbunister
80635fc0c0 feat: Add position scaling controls to settings UI
**UI Updates (settings page):**
Added new '📈 Position Scaling' section with:
- Enable/disable toggle (defaults to OFF)
- Min quality score slider (60-90, default 75)
- Min profit to scale (0-2%, default 0.4%)
- Scale size percent (10-100%, default 50%)
- Max position multiplier (1-3x, default 2.0x)
- Min ADX increase (0-15, default 5)
- Max price position for scale (50-90%, default 70%)

**Visual Feedback:**
- Purple-themed section with warning banner
- Real-time risk calculator showing:
  * Original position size (SOL example)
  * Scale addition amount
  * Total after 1 scale
  * Maximum possible position size
- Dynamic descriptions explain each parameter
- Warning: 'DISABLED by default' with red indicator

**API Updates:**
Extended /api/settings GET/POST to handle 7 new fields:
- ENABLE_POSITION_SCALING
- MIN_SCALE_QUALITY_SCORE
- MIN_PROFIT_FOR_SCALE
- MAX_SCALE_MULTIPLIER
- SCALE_SIZE_PERCENT
- MIN_ADX_INCREASE
- MAX_PRICE_POSITION_FOR_SCALE

**User Flow:**
1. Navigate to http://localhost:3001/settings
2. Scroll to '📈 Position Scaling' section
3. Toggle 'Enable Position Scaling' to 1
4. Adjust thresholds (defaults are conservative)
5. See live calculation of scaling impact
6. Click 'Save Settings'
7. Click 'Restart Bot' to apply

**Safety:**
- Feature OFF by default (requires explicit opt-in)
- Warning banner explains scaling behavior
- Risk calculator shows maximum exposure
- Conservative defaults prevent aggressive scaling
- All parameters adjustable via sliders

**Example:**
With defaults (SOL $210×10x = $2100):
- Scale adds: $1050 (50% of $2100)
- Total after 1 scale: $3150
- Max position (2x): $4200

User can now enable and configure position scaling without touching .env file!
2025-11-03 15:45:11 +01:00