Commit Graph

163 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
mindesbunister
34127b9e6c feat: Add quality score to trade opened Telegram notifications
User Request: Show quality score in Telegram when position opened

Changes:
- Updated execute endpoint response to include qualityScore field
- n8n workflow already checks for qualityScore in response
- When present, displays:  Quality: XX/100

Impact:
- Users now see quality score immediately on position open
- Previously only saw score on blocked signals
- Better visibility into trade quality at entry

Files Modified:
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts (added qualityScore to response)
2025-11-24 10:19:09 +01:00
mindesbunister
bfdb0ba779 feat: Implement adaptive leverage based on signal quality score
- Quality-based risk adjustment: 95+ = 15x, 90-94 = 10x, <90 = blocked
- Data-driven decision: v8 quality 95+ = 100% WR (4/4 wins)
- Config fields: useAdaptiveLeverage, highQualityLeverage, lowQualityLeverage, qualityLeverageThreshold
- Helper function: getLeverageForQualityScore() returns appropriate leverage tier
- Position sizing: Modified getActualPositionSizeForSymbol() to accept optional qualityScore param
- Execute endpoint: Calculate quality score early (before sizing) for leverage determination
- Test endpoint: Uses quality 100 for maximum leverage on manual test trades
- ENV variables: USE_ADAPTIVE_LEVERAGE, HIGH_QUALITY_LEVERAGE, LOW_QUALITY_LEVERAGE, QUALITY_LEVERAGE_THRESHOLD
- Impact: 33% less exposure on borderline quality signals (90-94)
- Example: $540 × 10x = $5,400 vs $8,100 (saves $2,700 exposure on volatile signals)
- Files changed:
  * config/trading.ts (interface, config, ENV, helper function, position sizing)
  * app/api/trading/execute/route.ts (early quality calculation, pass to sizing)
  * app/api/trading/test/route.ts (quality 100 for test trades)
2025-11-24 00:47:09 +01:00
mindesbunister
1e64e8145b fix: Correct SQL column names and add navigation links
- Fixed tp1Hit/tp2Hit -> tp1Filled/tp2Filled in Runner Performance query
- Fixed atr -> atrAtEntry in ATR vs MFE Correlation and Data Collection queries
- Added Analytics card to homepage with link to /analytics/optimization
- Added Home button to optimization page header
- All 7 analyses now working without SQL errors
2025-11-23 20:28:33 +01:00
mindesbunister
11ae0938ba feat: Add comprehensive optimization analytics dashboard
- Created /api/optimization/analyze endpoint with 7 SQL analyses
- Replaced old TP/SL page with comprehensive dashboard
- Analyses: Quality Score Distribution, Direction Performance, Blocked Signals, Runner Performance, ATR vs MFE, Indicator Versions, Data Collection Status
- Real-time refresh capability
- Actionable recommendations based on data thresholds
- Roadmap links at bottom
- Addresses user request for automated SQL analysis dashboard
2025-11-23 20:07:24 +01:00
mindesbunister
4dc42075cb feat: Add direction-specific quality thresholds to settings UI
- Added MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE_LONG and _SHORT fields to Settings interface
- Replaced single quality score field with three fields:
  1. Global Fallback (91) - for BTC and other symbols
  2. LONG Signals (90) - based on 71.4% WR data analysis
  3. SHORT Signals (95) - based on toxic 28.6% WR data, blocks low-quality shorts
- Updated app/api/settings/route.ts GET/POST handlers to support direction-specific fields
- Fixed field naming consistency (MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE vs MIN_QUALITY_SCORE)
- User can now adjust direction-specific thresholds via settings UI without .env editing
- Container deployed: 2025-11-23T14:25:34 UTC
2025-11-23 15:26:13 +01:00
mindesbunister
01aaa0932a feat: Direction-specific quality thresholds (long=90, short=95)
- DATA-DRIVEN: 227 trades analysis showed longs 71.4% WR vs shorts 28.6% WR at quality 90-94
- LONG threshold: 90 (captures profitable 90-94 signals: +4.77 total, +.40 avg)
- SHORT threshold: 95 (blocks toxic 90-94 signals: -53.76 total, -9.11 avg)
- Historical validation: Quality 90+ longs +00.62 vs shorts -77.90

Modified files:
- config/trading.ts: Added minSignalQualityScoreLong/Short fields + getMinQualityScoreForDirection()
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Accept direction-specific minScore parameter
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: Use direction-specific thresholds
- .env: Added MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE_LONG=90 and _SHORT=95

Fallback logic: direction-specific → global → 60 default
Backward compatible with existing code
2025-11-23 15:01:56 +01:00
mindesbunister
a7c593077d critical: Fix duplicate Telegram notifications + settings UI restart requirement
Issue #1: Duplicate Telegram Notifications (Nov 23, 2025)
Symptom: Manual closures sent 2x identical notifications
Root Cause: Monitoring loop processes trades from array snapshot, trade removed
during async processing but loop continues with stale reference

Real Incident:
- Trade cmibdii4k0004pe07nzfmturo (SHORT SOL)
- Entry $128.85, Exit $128.79, P&L +$6.44
- Duplicate 'POSITION CLOSED' messages sent
- Logs show 'Manual closure recorded' twice
- Database saved correctly (only once)

Fix (lib/trading/position-manager.ts):
Added guard at start of checkTradeConditions():
```typescript
  console.log(`⏭️ Skipping ${trade.symbol} - already removed`)
  return
}
```

Why needed: handlePriceUpdate() collects trades into array BEFORE async processing
Loop continues even after handleManualClosure() removes trade from Map
Second iteration processes removed trade → duplicate notification

Issue #2: Settings UI Changes Require Container Restart (Nov 23, 2025)
Symptom: Quality threshold raised to 91 via settings UI, but trade with quality 90
still executed (should've been blocked)

Timeline:
- Nov 21 18:55: Threshold raised to 91 in code (commit 08482b4)
- Nov 22 15:08: Container restarted
- Nov 22 16:15: Trade #9 quality 90 executed  (should've blocked)
- .env file had MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE=81 (old value)

Root Cause: Settings API writes to .env but in-memory process.env update doesn't
propagate to all modules. Container restart required for full effect.

Fix (app/api/settings/route.ts):
Added console warning: "⚠️ Container restart recommended"
Changed comment from "immediate effect" to "temporary, may not persist"

User Impact:
- Settings changes via UI now show proper expectations
- Manual .env edit + restart remains required for critical settings
- Future: Add /api/restart call after settings save

Trade #9 Analysis (quality 90, should've been blocked):
- ADX: 17.8 (weak, below 18 minimum)
- Price Position: 98.6% (extreme high, chasing top)
- Loss: -$22.41 (-0.15%)
- Result: Validates quality 91 threshold works correctly

Commits: 08482b4 (threshold raise), this commit (duplicate fix + restart requirement)
2025-11-23 10:57:32 +01:00
mindesbunister
0ec2896c5d fix: Resolve variable hoisting error in version comparison API
Critical Bug Fix:
- archivedVersions was used before declaration (line 147 vs line 165)
- Caused 'Cannot access before initialization' error
- Moved versionDescriptions and archivedVersions declarations to top
- Now defined BEFORE usage in resultsWithArchived.map()

Impact: Analytics page was completely broken (stuck on loading)
Resolution: API now returns data correctly, UI functional

Error: ReferenceError: Cannot access 'g' before initialization
Fix: Proper variable ordering in route.ts
2025-11-22 15:02:43 +01:00
mindesbunister
bba91c1df8 feat: Archive old indicator versions, focus on v8 production system
Version Management:
- v8 Money Line: PRODUCTION (8 trades, 57.1% WR, +$262.70, quality ≥95 = 100% wins)
- v5/v6/v7: ARCHIVED (historical baseline for future v9 comparison)

API Changes (app/api/analytics/version-comparison/route.ts):
- Added 'archived' flag to version stats
- Added 'production' field pointing to v8
- Updated sort order: v8 first, then archived versions
- Enhanced descriptions with PRODUCTION/ARCHIVED labels

UI Changes (app/analytics/page.tsx):
- v8 highlighted with blue gradient + 🚀 PRODUCTION badge
- Archived versions greyed out (60% opacity) + ARCHIVED badge
- Updated header: 'Indicator Versions (v8 Production)'
- Data collection notice: v8 shows 8/50 trades progress
- Kept comparison infrastructure for future v9 development

Documentation (.github/copilot-instructions.md):
- Updated Indicator Version Tracking section
- Documented perfect quality separation (≥95 = 100% wins)
- Clarified v8 production status, archived versions purpose
- Analytics UI behavior documented

Purpose: Keep comparison infrastructure for statistical validation
and future v9 testing while focusing user attention on v8 results.
2025-11-22 14:45:48 +01:00
mindesbunister
a07485c21f feat: Add comprehensive database save protection system
INVESTIGATION RESULT: No database failure occurred - trade was saved correctly.
However, implemented 5-layer protection against future failures:

1. Persistent File Logger (lib/utils/persistent-logger.ts)
   - Survives container restarts
   - Logs to /app/logs/errors.log
   - Daily rotation, 30-day retention

2. Database Save Retry Logic (lib/database/trades.ts)
   - 3 retry attempts with exponential backoff (1s, 2s, 4s)
   - Immediate verification query after each create
   - Persistent logging of all attempts

3. Orphan Position Detection (lib/startup/init-position-manager.ts)
   - Runs on every container startup
   - Queries Drift for positions without database records
   - Creates retroactive Trade records
   - Sends Telegram alerts
   - Restores Position Manager monitoring

4. Critical Logging (app/api/trading/execute/route.ts)
   - Database failures logged with full trade details
   - Stack traces preserved for debugging

5. Infrastructure (logs directory + Docker volume)
   - Mounted at /home/icke/traderv4/logs
   - Configured in docker-compose.yml

Trade from Nov 21 00:40:14 CET:
- Found in database: cmi82qg590001tn079c3qpw4r
- SHORT SOL-PERP 33.69 → 34.67 SL
- P&L: -9.17
- Closed at 01:17:03 CET (37 minutes duration)
- No database failure occurred

Future Protection:
- Retry logic catches transient failures
- Verification prevents silent failures
- Orphan detection catches anything missed
- Persistent logs enable post-mortem analysis
- System now bulletproof for 16 → 00k journey
2025-11-21 09:47:00 +01:00
mindesbunister
b511211f59 fix: Allow manual Telegram trades through timeframe filter
**BUG:** Telegram 'short sol' blocked by multi-timeframe data collection filter
- Filter checked 'timeframe !== 5' which blocked 'manual' timeframe
- Manual trades from Telegram should execute, not be saved for analysis

**FIX:** Updated condition to 'timeframe !== 5 && timeframe !== manual'
- Allows both 5min TradingView signals AND manual Telegram trades
- Only blocks 15min/1H/4H/Daily for data collection

**FILES:** app/api/trading/execute/route.ts line 114
**DEPLOYED:** Nov 20, 2025 15:42 CET
2025-11-20 16:35:09 +01:00
mindesbunister
d8b0307e74 fix: Use database realizedPnL instead of recalculating from entry/exit
Stats API was recalculating P&L from entry/exit prices which didn't
account for TP1+runner partial closes. This caused incorrect P&L
display (-$26.10 instead of +$46.97).

Fixed:
- Use database realizedPnL (now corrected to match Drift UI)
- Added debug logging to show trade count and total
- Stats now correctly show v8 performance: +$46.97

Note: Database P&L values were corrected in previous commit (cd6f590)
to match Drift UI's actual TP1+runner close values.
2025-11-19 21:53:13 +01:00
mindesbunister
cd6f590742 fix: Correct v8 trade P&L to match Drift UI actual values
Database had inflated P&L from compounding bugs. Corrected to match
Drift Protocol's actual TP1+runner P&L values.

Corrections:
- Trade cmi5p09y: 37.67 → 38.90 (TP1 9.72 + runner 29.18)
- Trade cmi5ie3c: 59.35 → 40.09 (TP1 21.67 + runner 18.42)
- Trade cmi5a6jm: 19.79 → 13.72 (TP1 1.33 + runner 4.08 + 8.31)

v8 total P&L: $46.97 (matches Drift UI exactly)

Note: Each trade shows as 2 lines in Drift UI (TP1 + runner close),
so 5 trades = 10 lines in trade history.
2025-11-19 21:39:13 +01:00
mindesbunister
0d6e95bbab fix: Read TOTAL_WITHDRAWN from file instead of cached process.env
Bug: Second withdrawal showed $5.92 cumulative instead of $12.50
Root cause: process.env caches values at container startup, doesn't
update when .env file changes.

Fix: Parse TOTAL_WITHDRAWN directly from .env file content instead
of using cached process.env value.

Added: Debug logging showing calculation
Manual fix: Updated .env to $12.50 (sum of $6.58 + $5.92)

Result: Withdrawal stats now correctly show cumulative total.
2025-11-19 21:13:26 +01:00
mindesbunister
8d53c4bbad critical: Fix withdrawal statistics to use actual Drift deposits
- Query Drift Protocol's cumulativeDeposits for ground truth
- Discovered user deposited ,440.61 (not hardcoded 46)
- Previous withdrawals: ~26.78 (not tracked in ENV)
- Database P&L -.01 is correct
- Reconciliation: ,440.61 deposits - .01 P&L - 26.78 withdrawn = 11.82 current
- Available profit now shows current balance (includes all trading results)
- Created /api/drift/account-summary endpoint for account reconciliation
- Statistics now mathematically consistent and trustworthy
2025-11-19 19:25:59 +01:00
mindesbunister
1c79178aac fix: TypeScript errors in withdrawal system
- Fixed LAST_WITHDRAWAL_TIME type (null | string)
- Removed parseFloat on health.freeCollateral (already number)
- Fixed getDriftClient() → getClient() method name
- Build now compiles successfully

Deployed: Withdrawal system now live on dashboard
2025-11-19 18:25:54 +01:00
mindesbunister
ca7b49f745 feat: Add automated profit withdrawal system
- UI page: /withdrawals with stats dashboard and config form
- Settings API: GET/POST for .env configuration
- Stats API: Real-time profit and withdrawal calculations
- Execute API: Safe withdrawal with Drift SDK integration
- Drift service: withdrawFromDrift() with USDC spot market (index 0)
- Safety checks: Min withdrawal amount, min account balance, profit-only
- Telegram notifications: Withdrawal alerts with Solscan links
- Dashboard navigation: Added Withdrawals card (3-card grid)

User goal: 10% of profits automatically withdrawn on schedule
Current: Manual trigger ready, scheduled automation pending
Files: 5 new (withdrawals page, 3 APIs, Drift service), 2 modified
2025-11-19 18:07:07 +01:00
mindesbunister
60fc571aa6 feat: Automated multi-timeframe price tracking system
Implemented comprehensive price tracking for multi-timeframe signal analysis.

**Components Added:**
- lib/analysis/blocked-signal-tracker.ts - Background job tracking prices
- app/api/analytics/signal-tracking/route.ts - Status/metrics endpoint

**Features:**
- Automatic price tracking at 1min, 5min, 15min, 30min intervals
- TP1/TP2/SL hit detection using ATR-based targets
- Max favorable/adverse excursion tracking (MFE/MAE)
- Analysis completion after 30 minutes
- Background job runs every 5 minutes
- Entry price captured from signal time

**Database Changes:**
- Added entryPrice field to BlockedSignal (for price tracking baseline)
- Added maxFavorablePrice, maxAdversePrice fields
- Added maxFavorableExcursion, maxAdverseExcursion fields

**Integration:**
- Auto-starts on container startup
- Tracks all DATA_COLLECTION_ONLY signals
- Uses same TP/SL calculation as live trades (ATR-based)
- Calculates profit % based on direction (long vs short)

**API Endpoints:**
- GET /api/analytics/signal-tracking - View tracking status and metrics
- POST /api/analytics/signal-tracking - Manually trigger update (auth required)

**Purpose:**
Enables data-driven multi-timeframe comparison. After 50+ signals per
timeframe, can analyze which timeframe (5min vs 15min vs 1H vs 4H vs Daily)
has best win rate, profit potential, and signal quality.

**What It Tracks:**
- Price at 1min, 5min, 15min, 30min after signal
- Would TP1/TP2/SL have been hit?
- Maximum profit/loss during 30min window
- Complete analysis of signal profitability

**How It Works:**
1. Signal comes in (15min, 1H, 4H, Daily) → saved to BlockedSignal
2. Background job runs every 5min
3. Queries current price from Pyth
4. Calculates profit % from entry
5. Checks if TP/SL thresholds crossed
6. Updates MFE/MAE if new highs/lows
7. After 30min, marks analysisComplete=true

**Future Analysis:**
After 50+ signals per timeframe:
- Compare TP1 hit rates across timeframes
- Identify which timeframe has highest win rate
- Determine optimal signal frequency vs quality trade-off
- Switch production to best-performing timeframe

User requested: "i want all the bells and whistles. lets make the
powerhouse more powerfull. i cant see any reason why we shouldnt"
2025-11-19 17:18:47 +01:00
mindesbunister
df6c388639 fix: Update POST endpoint to use MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE
Forgot to update the POST endpoint variable name. Both GET and POST
now use MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE consistently.
2025-11-19 09:59:11 +01:00
mindesbunister
0d546dc267 fix: Correct MIN_QUALITY_SCORE to MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE
Settings UI was using wrong variable name (MIN_QUALITY_SCORE) while
code reads MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE. This caused quality score changes
in settings UI to have no effect.

Fixed:
- Settings API now reads/writes MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE
- Updated .env file to use correct variable name
- User's quality score increase to 81 will now work

Related: User increased min quality from 60 to 81 to filter out
small chop trades (avoiding -$99 trade with quality score 80).
2025-11-19 09:53:49 +01:00
mindesbunister
9b9d80779d fix: Use signalPrice instead of currentPrice in CreateBlockedSignalParams
- TypeScript build error: currentPrice not in interface
- Correct field name is signalPrice (already defined)
- Fixes multi-timeframe data collection compilation
2025-11-18 20:30:07 +01:00
mindesbunister
325f8d0482 feat: Add multi-timeframe data collection to execute endpoint
- Only 5min signals execute trades (production)
- 15min/1H/4H/Daily signals saved to BlockedSignal table for analysis
- Enables cross-timeframe performance comparison
- Zero financial risk - non-5min signals just collect data
- blockReason: 'DATA_COLLECTION_ONLY' for easy filtering
- Returns HTTP 200 (not 400) since this is expected behavior
- Prepares for future timeframe optimization decisions
2025-11-18 20:24:26 +01:00
mindesbunister
6f85fee1da critical: Fix test endpoint violating database-first pattern (Common Pitfall #29)
- Moved positionManager.addTrade() to AFTER database save succeeds
- Changed database error handling to return HTTP 500 (not silent fail)
- Test endpoint now enforces same pattern as execute endpoint
- Prevents untracked positions when database save fails
- Root cause of trade manual-1763391075992 compounding to -19.43

Before: Test endpoint added to Position Manager first, saved to DB after
After: Test endpoint saves to DB first, only adds to PM if DB succeeds
Impact: No more untracked positions from test trades with failed DB saves
2025-11-17 16:47:07 +01:00
mindesbunister
3aeb00f998 critical: Fix P&L calculation and TP1 false detection bugs
- Add originalPositionSize tracking to prevent stale size usage
- Add price validation to TP1 detection (prevents manual closes misidentified as TP1)
- Fix external closure P&L to use originalPositionSize not currentSize
- Add handleManualClosure method for proper exit reason detection
- Add isPriceAtTarget helper for TP/SL price validation (0.2% tolerance)
- Update all ActiveTrade creation points (execute, test, sync-positions, test-db)

Bug fixes:
- Manual close at 42.34 was detected as TP1 (target 40.71) - FIXED
- P&L showed -$1.71 instead of actual -$2.92 - FIXED
- Exit reason showed SL instead of manual - FIXED

Root cause: Position Manager detected size reduction without validating
price was actually at TP1 level. Used stale currentSize for P&L calculation.

Files modified:
- lib/trading/position-manager.ts (core fixes)
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts
- app/api/trading/test/route.ts
- app/api/trading/sync-positions/route.ts
- app/api/trading/test-db/route.ts
2025-11-17 15:10:15 +01:00
mindesbunister
141022243a feat: Implement ATR-based TP/SL system for regime-agnostic trading
CRITICAL UPGRADE - Nov 17, 2025

Problem Solved:
- v6 shorts averaging +20.74% MFE but TP exits at +0.7% (leaving 95% on table)
- Fixed % targets don't adapt to bull/bear regime changes
- User must manually adjust settings when sentiment flips
- Market-regime bias in optimization (bearish now ≠ bullish later)

Solution - ATR-Based Dynamic TP/SL:
- TP1 = ATR × 2.0 (adaptive to volatility)
- TP2 = ATR × 4.0 (captures extended moves)
- SL = ATR × 3.0 (proportional risk)
- Safety bounds prevent extremes (min/max caps)

Example with SOL ATR = 0.45%:
- TP1: 0.45% × 2.0 = 0.90% (vs old fixed 0.4%)
- TP2: 0.45% × 4.0 = 1.80% (vs old fixed 0.7%)
- SL: 0.45% × 3.0 = 1.35% (vs old fixed 1.5%)

Benefits:
 Adapts automatically to bull/bear regime changes
 Asset-agnostic (SOL vs BTC have different ATR)
 Captures more profit in volatile conditions
 Tighter risk in calm conditions
 No manual intervention when sentiment shifts
 Consistent with existing ATR-based trailing stop

Implementation:
- Added TradingConfig fields: atrMultiplierTp1/Tp2/Sl with min/max bounds
- New calculatePercentFromAtr() helper function
- Execute endpoint calculates dynamic % from ATR, falls back to fixed % if unavailable
- ENV variables: ATR_MULTIPLIER_TP1/TP2/SL, MIN_TP1/TP2/SL_PERCENT, MAX_TP1/TP2/SL_PERCENT
- Updated .env with new defaults based on v6 MAE/MFE analysis

Configuration:
- USE_ATR_BASED_TARGETS=true (enabled by default)
- Runner: 40% (TAKE_PROFIT_1_SIZE_PERCENT=60)
- Trailing: 1.3x ATR (existing system, unchanged)
- Legacy fixed % used as fallback when ATR unavailable

Files Modified:
- config/trading.ts (interface + defaults + ENV reading)
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts (ATR calculation logic)
- .env (new ATR multiplier variables)

Expected Impact:
- Capture 2-3x more profit per winning trade
- Maintain same risk management rigor
- Perform well in BOTH bull and bear markets
- Fix v6 underperformance (-$47.70 → positive)

Testing Required:
- Monitor first 10 trades with ATR-based targets
- Verify TP/SL prices match ATR calculations in logs
- Compare P&L to historical fixed-% performance
2025-11-17 11:41:13 +01:00
mindesbunister
40d69b13ef wip: Emergency order restoration endpoint (has singleton issues)
- Created /api/trading/place-exit-orders endpoint
- Created restore-orders.mjs script
- Issue: Next.js creates separate Drift instances per route
- Workaround: Use /api/trading/cancel-orders to remove orphaned orders

Current situation:
- 32 orphaned orders existed and were cancelled
- Position Manager should auto-place new orders
- Manual order placement endpoint needs refactoring
2025-11-16 22:10:15 +01:00
mindesbunister
66c3c42547 feat: Add automated database sync validator for ghost position detection
PROBLEM:
- Analytics page showed 3 open trades when only 1 actually open on Drift
- Ghost positions in database (realizedPnL set but exitReason = NULL)
- Happens when on-chain orders fill but database update fails
- Manual cleanup required = unreliable dashboard

SOLUTION: Automated Database Sync Validator
1. Runs every 10 minutes (independent of Position Manager)
2. Validates ALL 'open' database trades against actual Drift positions
3. Auto-fixes ghost positions (marks as closed with exitReason)
4. Provides manual validation endpoint: GET /api/admin/validate-db

FEATURES:
- Detects ghost positions (DB open, Drift closed)
- Detects orphan positions (DB closed, Drift open)
- Provides detailed validation reports
- Runs on server startup + periodic intervals
- Zero manual intervention required

FILES:
- lib/database/sync-validator.ts: Core validation logic
- app/api/admin/validate-db/route.ts: Manual validation endpoint
- instrumentation.ts: Auto-start on server initialization

RESULT: Reliable dashboard data - always matches Drift reality
2025-11-16 21:30:29 +01:00
mindesbunister
e8a1ce972d critical: Prevent hedge positions during signal flips
**The 4 Loss Problem:**
Multiple trades today opened opposite positions before previous closed:
- 11:15 SHORT manual close
- 11:21 LONG opened + hit SL (-.84)
- 11:21 SHORT opened same minute (both positions live)
- Result: Hedge with limited capital = double risk

**Root Cause:**
- Execute endpoint had 2-second delay after close
- During rate limiting, close takes 30+ seconds
- New position opened before old one confirmed closed
- Both positions live = hedge you can't afford at 100% capital

**Fix Applied:**
1. Block flip if close fails (don't open new position)
2. Wait for Drift confirmation (up to 15s), not just tx confirmation
3. Poll Drift every 2s to verify position actually closed
4. Only proceed with new position after verified closure
5. Return HTTP 500 if position still exists after 15s

**Impact:**
-  NO MORE accidental hedges
-  Guaranteed old position closed before new opens
-  Protects limited capital from double exposure
-  Fails safe (blocks flip rather than creating hedge)

**Trade-off:**
- Flips now take 2-15s longer (verification wait)
- But eliminates hedge risk that caused -4 losses

Files modified:
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: Enhanced flip sequence with verification
- Removed app/api/drift/account-state/route.ts (had TypeScript errors)
2025-11-16 20:51:26 +01:00
mindesbunister
a8831a9181 critical: Fix P&L compounding bug in 25 historical trades
- Identified 25 trades with corrupted P&L from compounding bug
- Recalculated correct P&L for all affected trades (7 days)
- Total corrections: 63.23 in fake profits removed
- Today's actual P&L: -.97 (11 trades) - was showing -9.87 before fixes
- Last 7 days actual P&L: +7.04 (70 trades) - was showing +27.90

Bug pattern:
- P&L updated multiple times during close verification wait
- Each update added to previous value instead of replacing
- Worst case: -8.17 stored vs -.77 actual (7× compounding)

Root cause: Common Pitfall #48 - closingInProgress flag fix deployed
Nov 16 18:26 UTC but damage already done to historical data

Files modified:
- Database: 25 trades updated via SQL recalculation
- Fixed trades from Nov 10-16 with ABS(stored - calculated) > $1
2025-11-16 20:21:51 +01:00
mindesbunister
54012ec402 fix: Analytics now shows current runner size instead of original position size
- Modified /api/analytics/last-trade to extract currentSize from configSnapshot.positionManagerState
- For open positions (exitReason === null), displays runner size after TP1 instead of original positionSizeUSD
- Falls back to original positionSizeUSD for closed positions or when Position Manager state unavailable
- Fixes UI showing 2.54 when actual runner is 2.59
- Provides accurate exposure visibility on analytics dashboard

Example: Position opens at 2.54, TP1 closes 70% → runner 2.59 → UI now shows 2.59
2025-11-15 23:14:17 +01:00
mindesbunister
fb4beee418 fix: Add periodic Drift reconnection to prevent memory leaks
- Memory leak identified: Drift SDK accumulates WebSocket subscriptions over time
- Root cause: accountUnsubscribe errors pile up when connections close/reconnect
- Symptom: Heap grows to 4GB+ after 10+ hours, eventual OOM crash
- Solution: Automatic reconnection every 4 hours to clear subscriptions

Changes:
- lib/drift/client.ts: Add reconnectTimer and scheduleReconnection()
- lib/drift/client.ts: Implement private reconnect() method
- lib/drift/client.ts: Clear timer in disconnect()
- app/api/drift/reconnect/route.ts: Manual reconnection endpoint (POST)
- app/api/drift/reconnect/route.ts: Reconnection status endpoint (GET)

Impact:
- Prevents JavaScript heap out of memory crashes
- Telegram bot timeouts resolved (was failing due to unresponsive bot)
- System will auto-heal every 4 hours instead of requiring manual restart
- Emergency manual reconnect available via API if needed

Tested: Container restarted successfully, no more WebSocket accumulation expected
2025-11-15 09:22:15 +01:00
mindesbunister
25776413d0 feat: Add signalSource field to identify manual vs TradingView trades
- Set signalSource='manual' for Telegram trades, 'tradingview' for TradingView
- Updated analytics queries to exclude manual trades from indicator analysis
- getTradingStats() filters manual trades (TradingView performance only)
- Version comparison endpoint filters manual trades
- Created comprehensive filtering guide: docs/MANUAL_TRADE_FILTERING.md
- Ensures clean data for indicator optimization without contamination
2025-11-14 22:55:14 +01:00
mindesbunister
c4c0c63de1 feat: Add Alchemy RPC diagnostic endpoint + complete investigation
- Created /api/testing/drift-init endpoint for systematic RPC testing
- Tested Alchemy: 17-71 subscription errors per init (49 avg over 5 runs)
- Tested Helius: 0 subscription errors, 800ms init time
- DEFINITIVE PROOF: Alchemy rate limits break Drift SDK initialization
- Root cause: Burst subscription pattern hits CUPS limits
- SDK doesn't retry failed subscriptions → unstable state
- Documented complete findings in docs/ALCHEMY_RPC_INVESTIGATION_RESULTS.md
- Investigation CLOSED - Helius is the only reliable solution
2025-11-14 22:20:04 +01:00
mindesbunister
78ab9e1a94 fix: Increase transaction confirmation timeout to 60s for Alchemy Growth
- Alchemy Growth (10,000 CU/s) can handle longer confirmation waits
- Increased timeout from 30s to 60s in both openPosition() and closePosition()
- Added debug logging to execute endpoint to trace hang points
- Configured dual RPC: Alchemy primary (transactions), Helius fallback (subscriptions)
- Previous 30s timeout was causing premature failures during Solana congestion
- This should resolve 'Transaction was not confirmed in 30.00 seconds' errors

Related: User reported n8n webhook returning 500 with timeout error
2025-11-14 20:42:59 +01:00
mindesbunister
7afd7d5aa1 feat: switch from Helius to Alchemy RPC provider
Changes:
- Updated SOLANA_RPC_URL to use Alchemy (https://solana-mainnet.g.alchemy.com/v2/...)
- Migrated from Helius free tier to Alchemy free tier
- Includes previous rate limit fixes (8s backoff, 2s operation delays)

Context:
- Helius free tier: 10 req/sec sustained, 100 req/sec burst
- Alchemy free tier: 300M compute units/month (more generous)
- User hit 239 rate limit errors in 10 minutes on Helius
- User registered Alchemy account and provided API key

Impact:
- Should significantly reduce 429 rate limit errors
- Better free tier limits for trading bot operations
- Combined with delay fixes for optimal RPC usage
2025-11-14 14:01:52 +01:00
mindesbunister
3cc3f1b871 fix: correct database column name in version comparison query
- Changed 'pricePosition' to 'pricePositionAtEntry' in extreme positions query
- Fixed database error: column "pricePosition" does not exist

Context:
- API was failing with Error 42703 (column not found)
- Database schema uses 'pricePositionAtEntry', not 'pricePosition'
- Version comparison section now loads correctly in analytics dashboard
2025-11-14 13:38:33 +01:00
mindesbunister
3aa704801e fix: resolve TypeScript errors in version comparison API
- Fixed extremePositionStats type to match actual SQL query fields
- Changed .count to .trades (query returns 'trades' column, not 'count')
- Simplified extreme positions metrics (removed missing avg_adx and weak_adx_count)
- Fixed version comparison fallback from 'v1' to 'unknown'

Technical:
- SQL query only returns: version, trades, wins, total_pnl, avg_quality_score
- Code was trying to access non-existent fields causing TypeScript errors
- Build now succeeds, container deployed
2025-11-14 13:28:08 +01:00
mindesbunister
2cda751dc4 fix: update analytics UI to show TradingView indicator versions correctly
- Changed section title: 'Signal Quality Logic Versions' → 'TradingView Indicator Versions'
- Updated current version marker: v3 → v6
- Added version sorting: v6 first, then v5, then unknown
- Updated description to reflect indicator strategy comparison

Context:
- User clarified: V4 display = v6 data, V1 display = v5 data
- Dashboard now shows indicator versions in proper order
- 154 unknown (pre-tracking), 15 v6 (HalfTrend), 4 v5 (Buy/Sell)
2025-11-14 13:15:30 +01:00
mindesbunister
6e8da10f7d fix: switch version comparison to use indicatorVersion instead of signalQualityVersion
- Changed SQL queries to use indicatorVersion (TradingView strategy versions)
- Updated version descriptions to only show v5/v6/unknown
- v5 = Buy/Sell Signal strategy (pre-Nov 12)
- v6 = HalfTrend + BarColor strategy (Nov 12+)
- unknown = Pre-version-tracking trades

Context:
- User clarified: 'v4 is v6. the version reflects the moneyline version'
- Dashboard should show indicator strategy versions, not scoring logic versions
2025-11-14 13:12:30 +01:00
mindesbunister
08ee899164 feat: update analytics version descriptions
- Added v4 description: 'Frequency penalties + blocked signals tracking (Nov 11-14)'
- Added v5 description: 'Buy/Sell Signal strategy (pre-Nov 12)'
- Added v6 description: 'HalfTrend + BarColor strategy (Nov 12+)'

Context:
- v1-v4 = signalQualityVersion (scoring logic evolution)
- v5-v6 = indicatorVersion (TradingView strategy versions)
- Dashboard will now correctly label both types of versions
2025-11-14 13:07:01 +01:00
mindesbunister
28c1110a85 feat: Integrate dynamic ATR analysis into TP/SL optimization endpoint
- Added dynamicATRAnalysis section to /api/analytics/tp-sl-optimization
- Analyzes v6 trades with ATR data to compare fixed vs dynamic targets
- Dynamic targets: TP2=2x ATR, SL=1.5x ATR (from config)
- Shows +39.8% advantage with 14 trades (.72 improvement)
- Includes data sufficiency check (need 30+ trades)
- Recommendation logic: WAIT/IMPLEMENT/CONSIDER/NEUTRAL based on sample size and advantage
- Returns detailed metrics: sample size, avg ATR, hit rates, P&L comparison
- Integrates seamlessly with existing MAE/MFE analysis

Current status: 14/30 trades collected, insufficient for implementation
Expected: Frontend will display this data to track progress toward 30-trade threshold
2025-11-14 09:03:15 +01:00
mindesbunister
795026aed1 fix: use Pyth price data for flip-flop context check
CRITICAL FIX: Previous implementation showed incorrect price movements
(100% instead of 0.2%) because currentPrice wasn't available in
check-risk endpoint.

Changes:
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: Fetch current price from Pyth
  price monitor before quality scoring
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Added validation and detailed logging
  - Check if currentPrice available, apply penalty if missing
  - Log actual prices: $X → $Y = Z%
  - Include prices in penalty/allowance messages

Example outputs:
 Flip-flop in tight range: 4min ago, only 0.20% move ($143.86 → $143.58) (-25 pts)
 Direction change after 10.2% move ($170.00 → $153.00, 12min ago) - reversal allowed

This fixes the false positive that allowed a 0.2% flip-flop earlier today.

Deployed: 09:42 CET Nov 14, 2025
2025-11-14 08:23:04 +01:00
mindesbunister
77a9437d26 feat: add price movement context to flip-flop detection
Improved flip-flop penalty logic to distinguish between:
- Chop (bad): <2% price move from opposite signal → -25 penalty
- Reversal (good): ≥2% price move from opposite signal → allowed

Changes:
- lib/database/trades.ts: getRecentSignals() now returns oppositeDirectionPrice
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Added currentPrice parameter, price movement check
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: Added currentPrice to RiskCheckRequest interface
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: Pass openResult.fillPrice as currentPrice
- app/api/analytics/reentry-check/route.ts: Pass currentPrice from metrics

Example scenarios:
- ETH $170 SHORT → $153 LONG (10% move) = reversal allowed 
- ETH $154.50 SHORT → $154.30 LONG (0.13% move) = chop blocked ⚠️

Deployed: 09:18 CET Nov 14, 2025
Container: trading-bot-v4
2025-11-14 07:46:28 +01:00
mindesbunister
111e3ed12a feat: implement signal frequency penalties for flip-flop detection
PHASE 1 IMPLEMENTATION:
Signal quality scoring now checks database for recent trading patterns
and applies penalties to prevent overtrading and flip-flop losses.

NEW PENALTIES:
1. Overtrading: 3+ signals in 30min → -20 points
   - Detects consolidation zones where system generates excessive signals
   - Counts both executed trades AND blocked signals

2. Flip-flop: Opposite direction in last 15min → -25 points
   - Prevents rapid long→short→long whipsaws
   - Example: SHORT at 10:00, LONG at 10:12 = blocked

3. Alternating pattern: Last 3 trades flip directions → -30 points
   - Detects choppy market conditions
   - Pattern like long→short→long = system getting chopped

DATABASE INTEGRATION:
- New function: getRecentSignals() in lib/database/trades.ts
- Queries last 30min of trades + blocked signals
- Checks last 3 executed trades for alternating pattern
- Zero performance impact (fast indexed queries)

ARCHITECTURE:
- scoreSignalQuality() now async (requires database access)
- All callers updated: check-risk, execute, reentry-check
- skipFrequencyCheck flag available for special cases
- Frequency penalties included in qualityResult breakdown

EXPECTED IMPACT:
- Eliminate overnight flip-flop losses (like SOL $141-145 chop)
- Reduce overtrading during sideways consolidation
- Better capital preservation in non-trending markets
- Should improve win rate by 5-10% by avoiding worst setups

TESTING:
- Deploy and monitor next 5 signals in choppy markets
- Check logs for frequency penalty messages
- Analyze if blocked signals would have been losers

Files changed:
- lib/database/trades.ts: Added getRecentSignals()
- lib/trading/signal-quality.ts: Made async, added frequency checks
- app/api/trading/check-risk/route.ts: await + symbol parameter
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: await + symbol parameter
- app/api/analytics/reentry-check/route.ts: await + skipFrequencyCheck
2025-11-14 06:41:03 +01:00
mindesbunister
6590f4fb1e feat: phantom trade auto-closure system
- Auto-close phantom positions immediately via market order
- Return HTTP 200 (not 500) to allow n8n workflow continuation
- Save phantom trades to database with full P&L tracking
- Exit reason: 'manual' category for phantom auto-closes
- Protects user during unavailable hours (sleeping, no phone)
- Add Docker build best practices to instructions (background + tail)
- Document phantom system as Critical Component #1
- Add Common Pitfall #30: Phantom notification workflow

Why auto-close:
- User can't always respond to phantom alerts
- Unmonitored position = unlimited risk exposure
- Better to exit with small loss/gain than leave exposed
- Re-entry possible if setup actually good

Files changed:
- app/api/trading/execute/route.ts: Auto-close logic
- .github/copilot-instructions.md: Documentation + build pattern
2025-11-14 05:37:51 +01:00
mindesbunister
bd9633fbc2 CRITICAL FIX: Prevent unprotected positions via database-first pattern
Root Cause:
- Execute endpoint saved to database AFTER adding to Position Manager
- Database save failures were silently caught and ignored
- API returned success even when DB save failed
- Container restarts lost in-memory Position Manager state
- Result: Unprotected positions with no TP/SL monitoring

Fixes Applied:

1. Database-First Pattern (app/api/trading/execute/route.ts):
   - MOVED createTrade() BEFORE positionManager.addTrade()
   - If database save fails, return HTTP 500 with critical error
   - Error message: 'CLOSE POSITION MANUALLY IMMEDIATELY'
   - Position Manager only tracks database-persisted trades
   - Ensures container restarts can restore all positions

2. Transaction Timeout (lib/drift/orders.ts):
   - Added 30s timeout to confirmTransaction() in closePosition()
   - Prevents API from hanging during network congestion
   - Uses Promise.race() pattern for timeout enforcement

3. Telegram Error Messages (telegram_command_bot.py):
   - Parse JSON for ALL responses (not just 200 OK)
   - Extract detailed error messages from 'message' field
   - Shows critical warnings to user immediately
   - Fail-open: proceeds if analytics check fails

4. Position Manager (lib/trading/position-manager.ts):
   - Move lastPrice update to TOP of monitoring loop
   - Ensures /status endpoint always shows current price

Verification:
- Test trade cmhxj8qxl0000od076m21l58z executed successfully
- Database save completed BEFORE Position Manager tracking
- SL triggered correctly at -$4.21 after 15 minutes
- All protection systems working as expected

Impact:
- Eliminates risk of unprotected positions
- Provides immediate critical warnings if DB fails
- Enables safe container restarts with full position recovery
- Verified with live test trade on production

See: CRITICAL_INCIDENT_UNPROTECTED_POSITION.md for full incident report
2025-11-13 15:56:28 +01:00
mindesbunister
74df461556 fix: use actual symbol-specific leverage in notifications
Fixed Telegram notification showing wrong leverage (10x instead of 20x).

Problem:
- SOL trades use SOLANA_LEVERAGE=20x (per-symbol override)
- API response was returning config.leverage (global default 10x)
- n8n workflow displayed incorrect leverage value

Changes:
- Line 345: Use 'leverage' variable (from getPositionSizeForSymbol)
- Line 448: ActiveTrade uses actual leverage
- Line 522: ExecuteTradeResponse uses actual leverage
- Line 557: Database createTrade() uses actual leverage

Now notifications correctly show 20x for SOL trades.
2025-11-12 11:42:51 +01:00
mindesbunister
2c6295367c feat: add indicatorVersion tracking to backend
Added indicatorVersion field to track which TradingView indicator version
generated each signal (v5, v6, etc.)

Changes:
- Updated ExecuteTradeRequest interface to include indicatorVersion field
- Added indicatorVersion to both createTrade() calls with default 'v5' fallback
- Field already exists in Prisma schema (indicatorVersion String?)
- Defaults to 'v5' for backward compatibility with old alerts

This enables comparison of indicator performance:
- v5: Original Money Line indicator
- v6: Improved version with 100-bar price position filter

Works alongside existing signalQualityVersion (v4) which tracks backend
scoring algorithm changes. Two separate version fields:
1. indicatorVersion = TradingView Pine Script version (v5/v6)
2. signalQualityVersion = Backend scoring logic version (v4)

Frontend can now filter/compare trades by indicator version in analytics.
2025-11-12 08:22:06 +01:00
mindesbunister
03e91fc18d feat: ATR-based trailing stop + rate limit monitoring
MAJOR FIXES:
- ATR-based trailing stop for runners (was fixed 0.3%, now adapts to volatility)
- Fixes runners with +7-9% MFE exiting for losses
- Typical improvement: 2.24x more room (0.3% → 0.67% at 0.45% ATR)
- Enhanced rate limit logging with database tracking
- New /api/analytics/rate-limits endpoint for monitoring

DETAILS:
- Position Manager: Calculate trailing as (atrAtEntry / price × 100) × multiplier
- Config: TRAILING_STOP_ATR_MULTIPLIER=1.5, MIN=0.25%, MAX=0.9%
- Settings UI: Added ATR multiplier controls
- Rate limits: Log hits/recoveries/exhaustions to SystemEvent table
- Documentation: ATR_TRAILING_STOP_FIX.md + RATE_LIMIT_MONITORING.md

IMPACT:
- Runners can now capture big moves (like morning's $172→$162 SOL drop)
- Rate limit visibility prevents silent failures
- Data-driven optimization for RPC endpoint health
2025-11-11 14:51:41 +01:00
mindesbunister
ba13c20c60 feat: implement blocked signals tracking system
- Add BlockedSignal table with 25 fields for comprehensive signal analysis
- Track all blocked signals with metrics (ATR, ADX, RSI, volume, price position)
- Store quality scores, block reasons, and detailed breakdowns
- Include future fields for automated price analysis (priceAfter1/5/15/30Min)
- Restore signalQualityVersion field to Trade table

Database changes:
- New table: BlockedSignal with indexes on symbol, createdAt, score, blockReason
- Fixed schema drift from manual changes

API changes:
- Modified check-risk endpoint to save blocked signals automatically
- Fixed hasContextMetrics variable scope (moved to line 209)
- Save blocks for: quality score too low, cooldown period, hourly limit
- Use config.minSignalQualityScore instead of hardcoded 60

Database helpers:
- Added createBlockedSignal() function with try/catch safety
- Added getRecentBlockedSignals(limit) for queries
- Added getBlockedSignalsForAnalysis(olderThanMinutes) for automation

Documentation:
- Created BLOCKED_SIGNALS_TRACKING.md with SQL queries and analysis workflow
- Created SIGNAL_QUALITY_OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP.md with 5-phase plan
- Documented data-first approach: collect 10-20 signals before optimization

Rationale:
Only 2 historical trades scored 60-64 (insufficient sample size for threshold decision).
Building data collection infrastructure before making premature optimizations.

Phase 1 (current): Collect blocked signals for 1-2 weeks
Phase 2 (next): Analyze patterns and make data-driven threshold decision
Phase 3-5 (future): Automation and ML optimization
2025-11-11 11:49:21 +01:00