6a192bfb76
Updated .github/copilot-instructions.md to reflect recent system improvements: **ATR-Based Trailing Stop:** - Dynamic trailing calculation formula documented - Configurable runner % (default 25%, adjustable via TAKE_PROFIT_1_SIZE_PERCENT) - All UI displays now dynamically calculate runner% as 100 - TP1_SIZE - Removed hardcoded '25%' references, replaced with dynamic language **Rate Limit Monitoring:** - NEW Section #4: Rate Limit Monitoring - Exponential backoff mechanism (2s→4s→8s) - Database logging (3 event types: hit/recovered/exhausted) - Analytics endpoint for monitoring - Links to RATE_LIMIT_MONITORING.md for SQL queries **Section Renumbering:** - Old Section #4 (Order Placement) → Section #5 - Old Section #5 (Database) → Section #6 - Maintains logical flow and consistency **Updated References:** - Exit Strategy: Dynamic runner% description - Position Manager: ATR trailing formula + on-chain sync notes - Common Pitfalls: Dynamic runner % configuration notes - Roadmap: Phase 5 shows configurable runner with formula All documentation now accurately reflects user's 70/30 TP1/Runner split and recent infrastructure improvements (ATR trailing, rate limits). Related: settings UI updated in previous commit (app/settings/page.tsx)
297 lines
9.6 KiB
Markdown
297 lines
9.6 KiB
Markdown
# Trading Goals & Financial Roadmap
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**Bot:** Trading Bot v4 (Drift Protocol + TradingView v6 Signals)
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**Start Date:** November 11, 2025
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**Starting Capital:** $106 (+ $1,000 deposit in 2 weeks)
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**Primary Objective:** Systematic wealth building through algorithmic trading
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---
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## 🎯 Vision: Multi-Phase Wealth Building
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**Initial Target:** $100,000 (proof of concept)
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**Mid-term Target:** $500,000 (financial freedom)
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**Long-term Target:** $1,000,000+ (generational wealth)
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**Philosophy:** Compound growth with risk reduction as capital scales. Start aggressive, end conservative.
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---
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## 📊 Phase Breakdown
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### **Phase 1: Survival & Proof (Months 0-2.5)**
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**Capital:** $106 → $2,500
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**Strategy:** YOLO recovery, then aggressive compounding
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**Withdrawals:** $0 (reinvest everything)
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**Position Sizing:** 100% → 20-25% of account
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**Leverage:** 20x → 15x
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**Milestones:**
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- ✅ Week 0: $106 starting capital
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- ⏳ Week 2: +$1,000 deposit → $1,100-1,300 base
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- 🎯 Month 2.5: $2,500 account (20x growth on initial, 2x on deposited)
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**Success Criteria:**
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- v6 signals prove profitable (60%+ win rate)
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- ATR trailing stop captures runners properly
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- No catastrophic drawdowns (>50% account loss)
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**Risk Level:** 🔴 EXTREME (20x leverage, full position)
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---
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### **Phase 2: Cash Flow Foundation (Months 3-6)**
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**Capital:** $2,500 → $3,000-4,000
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**Strategy:** Sustainable growth while funding life
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**Withdrawals:** $300/month (start Month 3)
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**Position Sizing:** 20-25% of account
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**Leverage:** 10-15x
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**Milestones:**
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- Month 3: First $300 withdrawal (bills covered!)
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- Month 4: Account stays above $2,500 despite withdrawals
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- Month 6: Account grows to $3,500+ while taking $1,200 total
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**Success Criteria:**
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- Consistent 15-20% monthly returns
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- Withdrawals don't inhibit growth
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- Psychological comfort with system
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**Risk Level:** 🟠 HIGH (15x leverage, significant position)
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---
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### **Phase 3: Momentum Building (Months 7-12)**
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**Capital:** $3,500 → $6,000-8,000
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**Strategy:** Increase income, maintain growth
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**Withdrawals:** $400-500/month
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**Position Sizing:** 20-30% of account
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**Leverage:** 10x
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**Milestones:**
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- Month 7: Increase withdrawal to $400-500
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- Month 9: Account hits $5,000 (first major psychological barrier)
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- Month 12: $6,000-8,000 account + $3,000-4,000 withdrawn total
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**Success Criteria:**
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- 10-15% monthly returns (easier with larger capital)
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- Living expenses fully covered
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- System runs mostly autonomous
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**Risk Level:** 🟡 MODERATE (10x leverage, 25% position)
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---
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### **Phase 4: Acceleration (Year 2: Months 13-24)**
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**Capital:** $8,000 → $50,000
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**Strategy:** Scale position size, reduce leverage
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**Withdrawals:** $500-1,000/month
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**Position Sizing:** 30-40% of account
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**Leverage:** 5-10x
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**Milestones:**
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- Month 15: $10,000 account (100x initial capital!)
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- Month 18: $20,000 account
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- Month 21: $30,000 account
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- Month 24: $50,000 account
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**Success Criteria:**
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- 8-12% monthly returns (sustainable at scale)
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- $10,000+ withdrawn over the year
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- Risk management becomes priority
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**Risk Level:** 🟢 MODERATE-LOW (5-10x leverage, diversified positions)
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---
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### **Phase 5: The $100K Milestone (Months 25-30)**
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**Capital:** $50,000 → $100,000
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**Strategy:** Capital preservation with growth
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**Withdrawals:** $1,000-2,000/month
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**Position Sizing:** 30-50% of account
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**Leverage:** 3-5x
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**Milestones:**
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- Month 27: $75,000 account
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- Month 30: **$100,000 ACHIEVED** 🎉
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**Success Criteria:**
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- 5-8% monthly returns (compounding does the work)
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- Withdrawals become substantial ($12,000-24,000/year)
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- System proven over 2.5 years
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**Risk Level:** 🟢 LOW (3-5x leverage, conservative)
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---
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## 🚀 Beyond $100K: The Real Game Begins
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### **Phase 6: Financial Freedom Territory ($100K → $500K)**
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**Timeline:** 12-18 months
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**Withdrawals:** $2,000-5,000/month (covers all living + savings)
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**Strategy:** Split capital - 50% aggressive growth, 50% income generation
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**Target Returns:** 5-7% monthly (compounding to $500K)
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### **Phase 7: Wealth Building ($500K → $1M+)**
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**Timeline:** 18-24 months
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**Withdrawals:** $5,000-10,000/month (upgrade lifestyle)
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**Strategy:** 70% conservative (3-5% monthly), 30% aggressive (10-15% monthly)
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**Endgame:** Multiple income streams, true financial independence
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### **Phase 8: Legacy Mode ($1M+)**
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**Timeline:** Indefinite
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**Withdrawals:** Whatever you want
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**Strategy:** Capital preservation + modest growth (3-5% monthly = $30K-50K/month)
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**Focus:** Teaching system to others, retiring early, living free
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---
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## 📈 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
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### **Trading Metrics:**
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- **Win Rate Target:** 60%+ (aggressive phases), 55%+ (conservative phases)
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- **Profit Factor:** >1.5 consistently
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- **Average Win:** 8-12% (TP1 + partial runner)
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- **Average Loss:** -1.5% (stop loss)
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- **Monthly Return Target:**
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- Phases 1-2: 20-30% (aggressive)
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- Phases 3-4: 10-15% (sustainable)
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- Phases 5-6: 5-10% (conservative)
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### **Risk Metrics:**
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- **Max Drawdown:** <30% at any phase
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- **Consecutive Losses:** Stop trading after 3 in a row (review system)
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- **Daily Loss Limit:** -10% of account (circuit breaker)
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### **System Health:**
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- **Signal Quality Score:** Average >70 (Phase 1-2), >75 (Phase 3+)
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- **Rate Limit Hits:** <5 per day (RPC health)
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- **Runner Capture Rate:** >50% of MFE realized (ATR trailing working)
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---
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## 🛡️ Risk Management by Phase
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| Phase | Leverage | Position Size | Max Risk/Trade | Max Daily Risk |
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|-------|----------|---------------|----------------|----------------|
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| 1-2 | 15-20x | 20-100% | 30% | 50% |
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| 3 | 10-15x | 20-25% | 15% | 30% |
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| 4 | 10x | 25-30% | 10% | 20% |
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| 5 | 5-10x | 30-40% | 8% | 15% |
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| 6 | 3-5x | 30-50% | 5% | 10% |
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| 7-8 | 3-5x | 50%+ | 3% | 5% |
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---
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## 💰 Cumulative Financial Goals
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**End of Year 1 (Month 12):**
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- Account: $6,000-8,000
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- Total Withdrawn: $2,000-3,000
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- Net Worth Impact: +$8,000-11,000 (from $106 start)
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**End of Year 2 (Month 24):**
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- Account: $50,000
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- Total Withdrawn: $12,000-15,000
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- Net Worth Impact: +$62,000-65,000
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**End of Year 3 (Month 36):**
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- Account: $100,000+
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- Total Withdrawn: $30,000-50,000
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- Net Worth Impact: +$130,000-150,000
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**End of Year 5:**
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- Account: $500,000-1,000,000
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- Total Withdrawn: $100,000-200,000
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- Net Worth Impact: $600,000-1,200,000
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- **Status: Financially Independent**
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---
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## 🎯 Current Status
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**Date:** November 11, 2025
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**Phase:** 1 (Survival & Proof)
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**Account:** $106
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**Next Milestone:** $1,000 deposit (2 weeks)
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**Days Until First Withdrawal:** ~75 days (Month 3)
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**Recent Improvements:**
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- ✅ v6 Pine Script deployed (100-bar price position filtering)
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- ✅ ATR-based trailing stop implemented (captures runners properly)
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- ✅ 70/30 TP1/Runner split (increased runner size from 25% to 30%)
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- ✅ Rate limit monitoring (prevents silent failures)
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- ✅ Signal quality scoring (blocks weak setups)
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**System Readiness:** 🟢 READY
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**Confidence Level:** 🔥 HIGH (infrastructure is solid, just needs signals)
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---
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## 📝 Rules of Engagement
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### **The Non-Negotiables:**
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1. **Never skip the 2-month compound period** (Phases 1-2)
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2. **Always lower risk when account grows** (follow phase guidelines)
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3. **Stop trading after 3 consecutive losses** (review system, don't revenge trade)
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4. **Only trade signals with 70+ quality score** (especially in Phase 1-2)
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5. **Never increase leverage above phase max** (greed kills accounts)
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### **The Promises:**
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1. **Patience in Phase 1-2** (no withdrawals, let it compound)
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2. **Discipline in Phase 3-5** (consistent withdrawals, no FOMO)
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3. **Humility in Phase 6+** (protect capital, it's real money now)
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### **The Vision:**
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This isn't just about $100K. This is about building a systematic income machine that:
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- Pays for life expenses (Phase 3+)
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- Builds wealth (Phase 5+)
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- Creates legacy (Phase 8+)
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- **Proves algorithmic trading works when done right**
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---
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## 🚨 Failure Modes & Contingencies
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### **If Account Drops 50%+ in Phase 1-2:**
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- STOP trading immediately
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- Review all losing trades (what went wrong?)
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- Analyze signal quality scores (were they actually 70+?)
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- Check v6 configuration (filters working?)
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- Consider waiting for $1K deposit before resuming
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### **If Win Rate <50% After 20 Trades:**
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- System may not be working as expected
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- Review blocked signals vs executed signals
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- Increase MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE to 75
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- Reduce position size by 50%
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### **If Can't Make Withdrawals in Phase 3:**
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- Lower withdrawal amount to $200/month
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- Extend Phase 2 by 1-2 months
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- Consider side income to reduce pressure
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- Don't break the system by over-withdrawing
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---
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## 🎉 Success Celebrations
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**$500:** First 5x - Pizza night
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**$1,000:** 10x initial capital - Nice dinner out
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**$2,500:** Phase 1 complete - Weekend trip
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**$5,000:** Psychological barrier broken - New laptop/gear
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**$10,000:** 100x initial capital - Week vacation
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**$25,000:** Quarter of goal - Upgrade living situation
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**$50,000:** Halfway to first target - Tell family about success
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**$100,000:** FIRST MAJOR GOAL - Celebrate properly, then keep building
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**$500,000:** Financial freedom achieved - Quit day job if desired
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**$1,000,000:** Life changed forever - You made it
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---
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**Remember:** $100K is just the beginning. The real wealth comes from phases 6-8. Stay disciplined, trust the system, and let compound growth do the heavy lifting.
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**This isn't gambling. This is systematic wealth building with defined risk, clear milestones, and a proven edge.**
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Let's build something legendary. 🚀
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