trading_bot_v4/TRADING_GOALS.md

Trading Goals & Financial Roadmap

Bot: Trading Bot v4 (Drift Protocol + TradingView v8 Signals)
Start Date: November 11, 2025
Starting Capital: $106 (Initial) → $540 (Current with deposits)
Primary Objective: Systematic wealth building through algorithmic trading

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🎯 Vision: Multi-Phase Wealth Building

Initial Target: $100,000 (proof of concept)
Mid-term Target: $500,000 (financial freedom)
Long-term Target: $1,000,000+ (generational wealth)

Philosophy: Compound growth with risk reduction as capital scales. Start aggressive, end conservative.

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📊 Phase Breakdown

Phase 1: Survival & Proof (Months 0-2.5)

Capital: $106 → $2,500
Strategy: Aggressive compounding with data-driven optimization
Withdrawals: $0 (reinvest everything)
Position Sizing: 100% → 20-25% of account
Leverage: 20x → 15x

Milestones:

• ✅ Week 0: $106 starting capital (Nov 11, 2025)
• ✅ Week 1: +$440 deposits → $540 current capital (Nov 19, 2025)
• 🎯 Month 2.5: $2,500 account (4.6x growth from current, 23x from initial)

Success Criteria:

• v6 signals prove profitable (60%+ win rate)
• ATR trailing stop captures runners properly
• No catastrophic drawdowns (>50% account loss)

Risk Level: 🔴 EXTREME (20x leverage, full position)

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Phase 2: Cash Flow Foundation (Months 3-6)

Capital: $2,500 → $3,000-4,000
Strategy: Sustainable growth while funding life
Withdrawals: $300/month (start Month 3)
Position Sizing: 20-25% of account
Leverage: 10-15x

Milestones:

• Month 3: First $300 withdrawal (bills covered!)
• Month 4: Account stays above $2,500 despite withdrawals
• Month 6: Account grows to $3,500+ while taking $1,200 total

Success Criteria:

• Consistent 15-20% monthly returns
• Withdrawals don't inhibit growth
• Psychological comfort with system

Risk Level: 🟠 HIGH (15x leverage, significant position)

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Phase 3: Momentum Building (Months 7-12)

Capital: $3,500 → $6,000-8,000
Strategy: Increase income, maintain growth
Withdrawals: $400-500/month
Position Sizing: 20-30% of account
Leverage: 10x

Milestones:

• Month 7: Increase withdrawal to $400-500
• Month 9: Account hits $5,000 (first major psychological barrier)
• Month 12: $6,000-8,000 account + $3,000-4,000 withdrawn total

Success Criteria:

• 10-15% monthly returns (easier with larger capital)
• Living expenses fully covered
• System runs mostly autonomous

Risk Level: 🟡 MODERATE (10x leverage, 25% position)

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Phase 4: Acceleration (Year 2: Months 13-24)

Capital: $8,000 → $50,000
Strategy: Scale position size, reduce leverage
Withdrawals: $500-1,000/month
Position Sizing: 30-40% of account
Leverage: 5-10x

Milestones:

• Month 15: $10,000 account (100x initial capital!)
• Month 18: $20,000 account
• Month 21: $30,000 account
• Month 24: $50,000 account

Success Criteria:

• 8-12% monthly returns (sustainable at scale)
• $10,000+ withdrawn over the year
• Risk management becomes priority

Risk Level: 🟢 MODERATE-LOW (5-10x leverage, diversified positions)

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Phase 5: The $100K Milestone (Months 25-30)

Capital: $50,000 → $100,000
Strategy: Capital preservation with growth
Withdrawals: $1,000-2,000/month
Position Sizing: 30-50% of account
Leverage: 3-5x

Milestones:

• Month 27: $75,000 account
• Month 30: $100,000 ACHIEVED 🎉

Success Criteria:

• 5-8% monthly returns (compounding does the work)
• Withdrawals become substantial ($12,000-24,000/year)
• System proven over 2.5 years

Risk Level: 🟢 LOW (3-5x leverage, conservative)

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🚀 Beyond $100K: The Real Game Begins

Phase 6: Financial Freedom Territory ($100K → $500K)

Timeline: 12-18 months
Withdrawals: $2,000-5,000/month (covers all living + savings)
Strategy: Split capital - 50% aggressive growth, 50% income generation
Target Returns: 5-7% monthly (compounding to $500K)

Phase 7: Wealth Building ($500K → $1M+)

Timeline: 18-24 months
Withdrawals: $5,000-10,000/month (upgrade lifestyle)
Strategy: 70% conservative (3-5% monthly), 30% aggressive (10-15% monthly)
Endgame: Multiple income streams, true financial independence

Phase 8: Legacy Mode ($1M+)

Timeline: Indefinite
Withdrawals: Whatever you want
Strategy: Capital preservation + modest growth (3-5% monthly = $30K-50K/month)
Focus: Teaching system to others, retiring early, living free

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📈 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Trading Metrics:

• Win Rate Target: 60%+ (aggressive phases), 55%+ (conservative phases)
• Profit Factor: >1.5 consistently
• Average Win: 8-12% (TP1 + partial runner)
• Average Loss: -1.5% (stop loss)
• Monthly Return Target:
  • Phases 1-2: 20-30% (aggressive)
  • Phases 3-4: 10-15% (sustainable)
  • Phases 5-6: 5-10% (conservative)

Risk Metrics:

• Max Drawdown: <30% at any phase
• Consecutive Losses: Stop trading after 3 in a row (review system)
• Daily Loss Limit: -10% of account (circuit breaker)

System Health:

• Signal Quality Score: Average >70 (Phase 1-2), >75 (Phase 3+)
• Rate Limit Hits: <5 per day (RPC health)
• Runner Capture Rate: >50% of MFE realized (ATR trailing working)

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🛡️ Risk Management by Phase

Phase	Leverage	Position Size	Max Risk/Trade	Max Daily Risk
1-2	15-20x	20-100%	30%	50%
3	10-15x	20-25%	15%	30%
4	10x	25-30%	10%	20%
5	5-10x	30-40%	8%	15%
6	3-5x	30-50%	5%	10%
7-8	3-5x	50%+	3%	5%

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💰 Cumulative Financial Goals

End of Year 1 (Month 12):

• Account: $6,000-8,000
• Total Withdrawn: $2,000-3,000
• Net Worth Impact: +$8,000-11,000 (from $106 start)

End of Year 2 (Month 24):

• Account: $50,000
• Total Withdrawn: $12,000-15,000
• Net Worth Impact: +$62,000-65,000

End of Year 3 (Month 36):

• Account: $100,000+
• Total Withdrawn: $30,000-50,000
• Net Worth Impact: +$130,000-150,000

End of Year 5:

• Account: $500,000-1,000,000
• Total Withdrawn: $100,000-200,000
• Net Worth Impact: $600,000-1,200,000
• Status: Financially Independent

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🎯 Current Status

Date: November 19, 2025
Phase: 1 (Survival & Proof)
Account: $540 USDC (100% health, zero debt)
Next Milestone: $1,000 account (1.85x from current)
Days Until First Withdrawal: ~60 days (Month 3 - Early January 2026)

Recent Improvements:

• ✅ v8 Money Line Sticky Trend deployed (0.6% flip threshold, anti-whipsaw)
• ✅ ATR-based TP/SL system (adaptive to volatility, regime-agnostic)
• ✅ ADX-based runner positioning (trend-strength adaptive SL)
• ✅ Multi-timeframe price tracking (15min/1H/4H/Daily data collection)
• ✅ Quality score increase to 81 (filters small chop trades)
• ✅ 60/40 TP1/Runner split (captures runners on strong trends)
• ✅ Automated MFE/MAE analysis (30-minute tracking per signal)

System Readiness: 🟢 PRODUCTION
Confidence Level: 🔥 VERY HIGH (v8 tested, multi-timeframe data collection active, capital growing)

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📝 Rules of Engagement

The Non-Negotiables:

1. Never skip the 2-month compound period (Phases 1-2)
2. Always lower risk when account grows (follow phase guidelines)
3. Stop trading after 3 consecutive losses (review system, don't revenge trade)
4. Only trade signals with 70+ quality score (especially in Phase 1-2)
5. Never increase leverage above phase max (greed kills accounts)

The Promises:

1. Patience in Phase 1-2 (no withdrawals, let it compound)
2. Discipline in Phase 3-5 (consistent withdrawals, no FOMO)
3. Humility in Phase 6+ (protect capital, it's real money now)

The Vision:

This isn't just about $100K. This is about building a systematic income machine that:

• Pays for life expenses (Phase 3+)
• Builds wealth (Phase 5+)
• Creates legacy (Phase 8+)
• Proves algorithmic trading works when done right

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🚨 Failure Modes & Contingencies

If Account Drops 50%+ in Phase 1-2:

• STOP trading immediately
• Review all losing trades (what went wrong?)
• Analyze signal quality scores (were they actually 70+?)
• Check v6 configuration (filters working?)
• Consider waiting for $1K deposit before resuming

If Win Rate <50% After 20 Trades:

• System may not be working as expected
• Review blocked signals vs executed signals
• Increase MIN_SIGNAL_QUALITY_SCORE to 75
• Reduce position size by 50%

If Can't Make Withdrawals in Phase 3:

• Lower withdrawal amount to $200/month
• Extend Phase 2 by 1-2 months
• Consider side income to reduce pressure
• Don't break the system by over-withdrawing

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🎉 Success Celebrations

$500: First 5x - Pizza night
$1,000: 10x initial capital - Nice dinner out
$2,500: Phase 1 complete - Weekend trip
$5,000: Psychological barrier broken - New laptop/gear
$10,000: 100x initial capital - Week vacation
$25,000: Quarter of goal - Upgrade living situation
$50,000: Halfway to first target - Tell family about success
$100,000: FIRST MAJOR GOAL - Celebrate properly, then keep building
$500,000: Financial freedom achieved - Quit day job if desired
$1,000,000: Life changed forever - You made it

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Remember: $100K is just the beginning. The real wealth comes from phases 6-8. Stay disciplined, trust the system, and let compound growth do the heavy lifting.

This isn't gambling. This is systematic wealth building with defined risk, clear milestones, and a proven edge.

Let's build something legendary. 🚀