ed18c9e70f
- STARTING_CAPITAL set to 1437 (actual v11.2 start capital) - START_DATE set to Jan 6, 2026 (v11.2 production start) - getTradingStats filters for v11.2 indicator + recent manual trades - Excludes cleanup trades (DUPLICATE_CLEANUP, PHANTOM_CLEANUP, phantom) - Current v11.2 performance: 6 trades, 83.3% WR, +$406.04 P&L
512 lines
24 KiB
TypeScript
512 lines
24 KiB
TypeScript
'use client'
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import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
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interface ProjectionMonth {
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month: number
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date: string
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startCapital: number
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profit: number
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withdrawal: number
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btcSweep: number
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endCapital: number
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btcHoldings: number
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totalCashOut: number
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netWorth: number
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}
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interface ScenarioResult {
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monthlyRate: number
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label: string
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finalNetWorth: number
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finalTrading: number
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finalBTC: number
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totalCashOut: number
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color: string
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}
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interface TradingStats {
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totalPnL: number
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totalTrades: number
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winners: number
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losers: number
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winRate: number
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monthlyPnL: { month: string; pnl: number; trades: number }[]
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}
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export default function ProjectionPage() {
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const [currentCapital, setCurrentCapital] = useState<number>(0)
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const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
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const [selectedScenario, setSelectedScenario] = useState<number>(70)
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const [tradingStats, setTradingStats] = useState<TradingStats | null>(null)
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const [totalDeposits, setTotalDeposits] = useState<number>(0)
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// Strategy Parameters (Jan 2026)
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const STARTING_CAPITAL = 1437 // Actual starting balance when v11.2 went live
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const TRADING_CAP = 50000
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const BTC_MONTHLY_GROWTH = 0.05 // 5% per month (60% annual)
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const START_DATE = new Date('2026-01-06') // When v11.2 went live
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// Tiered Withdrawal Rules
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const getWithdrawal = (capital: number): number => {
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if (capital >= 30000) return 1200
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if (capital >= 10000) return 600
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if (capital >= 3000) return 300
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if (capital >= 1500) return 100
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return 0
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}
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useEffect(() => {
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async function fetchData() {
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try {
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// Fetch account summary
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const accountResponse = await fetch('/api/drift/account-summary')
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const accountData = await accountResponse.json()
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if (accountData.success) {
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setCurrentCapital(accountData.drift?.freeCollateral || accountData.freeCollateral || 0)
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// Total deposits from Drift
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if (accountData.spotPositions?.usdc?.cumulativeDeposits) {
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setTotalDeposits(parseInt(accountData.spotPositions.usdc.cumulativeDeposits) / 1e6)
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}
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}
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// Fetch trading stats (all time, not just 30 days)
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const statsResponse = await fetch('/api/analytics/stats?days=365')
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const statsData = await statsResponse.json()
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if (statsData.success && statsData.stats) {
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const stats = statsData.stats.realTrades
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setTradingStats({
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totalPnL: parseFloat(stats.totalPnL?.replace('$', '') || '0'),
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totalTrades: stats.total || 0,
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winners: stats.winning || 0,
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losers: stats.losing || 0,
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winRate: parseFloat(stats.winRate?.replace('%', '') || '0'),
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monthlyPnL: [] // Would need separate endpoint for monthly breakdown
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})
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}
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} catch (error) {
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console.error('Failed to fetch data:', error)
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} finally {
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setLoading(false)
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}
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}
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fetchData()
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}, [])
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// Generate projection for a given monthly rate
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const generateProjection = (monthlyRate: number): ProjectionMonth[] => {
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const months: ProjectionMonth[] = []
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let tradingCapital = STARTING_CAPITAL
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let btcHoldings = 0
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let totalCashOut = 0
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for (let month = 1; month <= 12; month++) {
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const monthDate = new Date(START_DATE)
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monthDate.setMonth(START_DATE.getMonth() + month - 1)
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const startCapital = tradingCapital
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const profit = tradingCapital * monthlyRate
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tradingCapital += profit
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// Tiered withdrawal
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const withdrawal = getWithdrawal(tradingCapital)
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tradingCapital -= withdrawal
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totalCashOut += withdrawal
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// BTC sweep (excess over $50k)
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let btcSweep = 0
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if (tradingCapital > TRADING_CAP) {
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btcSweep = tradingCapital - TRADING_CAP
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tradingCapital = TRADING_CAP
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}
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// BTC holdings grow + new sweep
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btcHoldings = btcHoldings * (1 + BTC_MONTHLY_GROWTH) + btcSweep
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const netWorth = tradingCapital + btcHoldings + totalCashOut
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months.push({
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month,
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date: monthDate.toLocaleDateString('en-US', { month: 'short', year: 'numeric' }),
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startCapital,
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profit,
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withdrawal,
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btcSweep,
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endCapital: tradingCapital,
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btcHoldings,
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totalCashOut,
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netWorth
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})
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}
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return months
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}
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// Pre-calculate all scenarios
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const scenarios: ScenarioResult[] = [
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{ monthlyRate: 0.50, label: '50%/mo (Very Conservative)', finalNetWorth: 0, finalTrading: 0, finalBTC: 0, totalCashOut: 0, color: 'text-gray-400' },
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{ monthlyRate: 0.70, label: '70%/mo (Base Case)', finalNetWorth: 0, finalTrading: 0, finalBTC: 0, totalCashOut: 0, color: 'text-green-400' },
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{ monthlyRate: 0.90, label: '90%/mo (Optimistic)', finalNetWorth: 0, finalTrading: 0, finalBTC: 0, totalCashOut: 0, color: 'text-blue-400' },
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{ monthlyRate: 1.10, label: '110%/mo (Strong)', finalNetWorth: 0, finalTrading: 0, finalBTC: 0, totalCashOut: 0, color: 'text-purple-400' },
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{ monthlyRate: 1.50, label: '150%/mo (Exceptional)', finalNetWorth: 0, finalTrading: 0, finalBTC: 0, totalCashOut: 0, color: 'text-yellow-400' },
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].map(scenario => {
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const projection = generateProjection(scenario.monthlyRate)
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const final = projection[projection.length - 1]
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return {
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...scenario,
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finalNetWorth: final.netWorth,
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finalTrading: final.endCapital,
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finalBTC: final.btcHoldings,
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totalCashOut: final.totalCashOut
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}
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})
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const currentProjection = generateProjection(selectedScenario / 100)
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const finalMonth = currentProjection[currentProjection.length - 1]
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const formatCurrency = (value: number) => {
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return new Intl.NumberFormat('en-US', {
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style: 'currency',
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currency: 'USD',
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minimumFractionDigits: 0,
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maximumFractionDigits: 0
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}).format(value)
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}
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return (
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<div className="min-h-screen bg-gray-900 text-white p-8">
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<div className="max-w-7xl mx-auto">
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{/* Header */}
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<div className="mb-8">
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<h1 className="text-4xl font-bold mb-2">📈 Financial Projection</h1>
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<p className="text-gray-400">12-Month Strategy: Tiered Withdrawals + $50k Cap + BTC Sweep</p>
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</div>
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{/* Strategy Rules Card */}
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<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-gray-700">
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<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-yellow-400">⚡ Strategy Rules</h2>
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<div className="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Trading Cap</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-green-400">$50,000</div>
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<div className="text-xs text-gray-500">Max active trading capital</div>
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</div>
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Excess Strategy</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-orange-400">→ BTC</div>
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<div className="text-xs text-gray-500">Monthly sweep to Bitcoin</div>
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</div>
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">BTC Growth</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-blue-400">5%/mo</div>
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<div className="text-xs text-gray-500">60% annual appreciation</div>
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</div>
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Withdrawals</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-purple-400">Tiered</div>
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<div className="text-xs text-gray-500">$100→$300→$600→$1,200</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* Tiered Withdrawal Rules */}
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<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-gray-700">
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<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-purple-400">💸 Tiered Withdrawal Schedule</h2>
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<div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
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<div className="text-center p-3 bg-gray-700 rounded">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Capital < $3k</div>
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<div className="text-xl font-bold text-red-400">$100/mo</div>
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</div>
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<div className="text-center p-3 bg-gray-700 rounded">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Capital < $10k</div>
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<div className="text-xl font-bold text-yellow-400">$300/mo</div>
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</div>
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<div className="text-center p-3 bg-gray-700 rounded">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Capital < $30k</div>
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<div className="text-xl font-bold text-blue-400">$600/mo</div>
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</div>
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<div className="text-center p-3 bg-gray-700 rounded">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Capital ≥ $30k</div>
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<div className="text-xl font-bold text-green-400">$1,200/mo</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* Current Status */}
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<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-green-500/30">
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<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-green-400">📊 Current Status</h2>
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<div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Starting Capital</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold">{formatCurrency(STARTING_CAPITAL)}</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Live Capital</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-green-400">
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{loading ? '...' : formatCurrency(currentCapital)}
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</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Strategy</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-blue-400">ML v11.2</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Pyramiding</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-purple-400">7x + 7x</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* ACTUAL PROGRESS vs PLAN */}
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<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-yellow-500/30">
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<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-yellow-400">📈 Actual Progress vs Plan</h2>
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{/* Summary Stats */}
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<div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-5 gap-4 mb-6">
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Total P&L</div>
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<div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${tradingStats?.totalPnL && tradingStats.totalPnL >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
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{loading ? '...' : tradingStats ? formatCurrency(tradingStats.totalPnL) : '$0'}
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</div>
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</div>
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Total Trades</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-blue-400">
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{loading ? '...' : tradingStats?.totalTrades || 0}
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</div>
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</div>
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Win Rate</div>
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<div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${tradingStats?.winRate && tradingStats.winRate >= 50 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-yellow-400'}`}>
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{loading ? '...' : tradingStats ? `${tradingStats.winRate.toFixed(1)}%` : '0%'}
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</div>
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</div>
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Capital Change</div>
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<div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
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{loading ? '...' : `${((currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL) / STARTING_CAPITAL * 100).toFixed(1)}%`}
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</div>
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</div>
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded p-4">
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Net Profit</div>
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<div className={`text-2xl font-bold ${currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
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{loading ? '...' : formatCurrency(currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL)}
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* Plan Comparison */}
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<div className="bg-gray-700/50 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 className="text-md font-semibold mb-3 text-gray-300">Expected vs Actual (70%/mo target)</h3>
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{(() => {
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const daysElapsed = Math.max(0, Math.floor((new Date().getTime() - START_DATE.getTime()) / (1000 * 60 * 60 * 24)))
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const monthsElapsed = daysElapsed / 30
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const dailyRate = Math.pow(1.70, 1/30) - 1 // 70%/month converted to daily compound rate
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const expectedCapital = STARTING_CAPITAL * Math.pow(1 + dailyRate, daysElapsed)
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const expectedGain = expectedCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL
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const actualGain = currentCapital - STARTING_CAPITAL
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const onTrack = currentCapital >= expectedCapital
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return (
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<div className="space-y-2">
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<div className="flex justify-between items-center">
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<span className="text-gray-400">Days Since Start (Jan 6, 2026):</span>
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<span className="text-blue-400 font-bold">{daysElapsed} days ({monthsElapsed.toFixed(1)} months)</span>
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</div>
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<div className="flex justify-between items-center">
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<span className="text-gray-400">Expected Capital @ 70%/mo:</span>
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<span className="text-yellow-400 font-bold">{formatCurrency(expectedCapital)} (+{formatCurrency(expectedGain)})</span>
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</div>
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<div className="flex justify-between items-center">
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<span className="text-gray-400">Current Capital:</span>
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<span className={`font-bold ${actualGain >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
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{loading ? '...' : formatCurrency(currentCapital)} ({actualGain >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{formatCurrency(actualGain)})
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</span>
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</div>
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<div className="flex justify-between items-center border-t border-gray-600 pt-2 mt-2">
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<span className="text-gray-400">Status vs Plan:</span>
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<span className={`font-bold ${onTrack ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
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{loading ? '...' : onTrack ? '✅ ON TRACK' : '⚠️ BEHIND'}
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({formatCurrency(currentCapital - expectedCapital)}, {((currentCapital / expectedCapital - 1) * 100).toFixed(1)}%)
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</span>
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</div>
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<div className="flex justify-between items-center">
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<span className="text-gray-400">Actual Daily Return:</span>
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<span className={`font-bold ${actualGain >= 0 ? 'text-green-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
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{loading || daysElapsed === 0 ? '...' : `${((Math.pow(currentCapital / STARTING_CAPITAL, 1 / Math.max(1, daysElapsed)) - 1) * 100).toFixed(2)}%/day`}
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{daysElapsed > 0 && !loading && ` (≈ ${((Math.pow(currentCapital / STARTING_CAPITAL, 30 / Math.max(1, daysElapsed)) - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}%/mo)`}
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</span>
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</div>
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</div>
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)
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})()}
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* Scenario Selector */}
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<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-gray-700">
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<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">🎯 Select Monthly Return Scenario</h2>
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<div className="flex flex-wrap gap-2 mb-6">
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{[50, 70, 90, 110, 150].map(rate => (
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<button
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key={rate}
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onClick={() => setSelectedScenario(rate)}
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className={`px-4 py-2 rounded-lg font-semibold transition-all ${
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selectedScenario === rate
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? 'bg-green-600 text-white'
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: 'bg-gray-700 text-gray-300 hover:bg-gray-600'
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}`}
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>
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{rate}%/mo
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</button>
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))}
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</div>
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{/* Year-End Summary for Selected Scenario */}
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<div className="bg-gray-700 rounded-lg p-4">
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<h3 className="text-lg font-semibold mb-3 text-yellow-400">
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Year 1 Result @ {selectedScenario}%/mo
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</h3>
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<div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4">
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Trading Account</div>
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<div className="text-xl font-bold text-green-400">{formatCurrency(finalMonth.endCapital)}</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">BTC Holdings</div>
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<div className="text-xl font-bold text-orange-400">{formatCurrency(finalMonth.btcHoldings)}</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Cash Withdrawn</div>
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<div className="text-xl font-bold text-purple-400">{formatCurrency(finalMonth.totalCashOut)}</div>
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</div>
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<div>
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<div className="text-sm text-gray-400">Total Net Worth</div>
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<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-white">{formatCurrency(finalMonth.netWorth)}</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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{/* Scenario Comparison Table */}
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<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-gray-700">
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<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">📊 All Scenarios Comparison</h2>
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<div className="overflow-x-auto">
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<table className="w-full">
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<thead>
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<tr className="text-left text-gray-400 border-b border-gray-700">
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<th className="pb-3">Scenario</th>
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<th className="pb-3 text-right">Trading</th>
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<th className="pb-3 text-right">BTC Holdings</th>
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<th className="pb-3 text-right">Cash Out</th>
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<th className="pb-3 text-right">Net Worth</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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{scenarios.map((scenario, idx) => (
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<tr
|
||
key={idx}
|
||
className={`border-b border-gray-700 ${
|
||
scenario.monthlyRate * 100 === selectedScenario ? 'bg-gray-700' : ''
|
||
}`}
|
||
>
|
||
<td className={`py-3 ${scenario.color} font-semibold`}>{scenario.label}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-3 text-right">{formatCurrency(scenario.finalTrading)}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-3 text-right text-orange-400">{formatCurrency(scenario.finalBTC)}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-3 text-right text-purple-400">{formatCurrency(scenario.totalCashOut)}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-3 text-right font-bold">{formatCurrency(scenario.finalNetWorth)}</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
))}
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Monthly Breakdown Table */}
|
||
<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-gray-700">
|
||
<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4">📅 Month-by-Month Breakdown @ {selectedScenario}%/mo</h2>
|
||
<div className="overflow-x-auto">
|
||
<table className="w-full text-sm">
|
||
<thead>
|
||
<tr className="text-left text-gray-400 border-b border-gray-700">
|
||
<th className="pb-3">Month</th>
|
||
<th className="pb-3 text-right">Start</th>
|
||
<th className="pb-3 text-right">Profit</th>
|
||
<th className="pb-3 text-right">Withdraw</th>
|
||
<th className="pb-3 text-right">→BTC</th>
|
||
<th className="pb-3 text-right">End</th>
|
||
<th className="pb-3 text-right">BTC Total</th>
|
||
<th className="pb-3 text-right">Net Worth</th>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
</thead>
|
||
<tbody>
|
||
{currentProjection.map((month, idx) => (
|
||
<tr key={idx} className="border-b border-gray-700 hover:bg-gray-700">
|
||
<td className="py-2 font-semibold">{month.date}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-2 text-right text-gray-400">{formatCurrency(month.startCapital)}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-2 text-right text-green-400">+{formatCurrency(month.profit)}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-2 text-right text-purple-400">
|
||
{month.withdrawal > 0 ? `-${formatCurrency(month.withdrawal)}` : '-'}
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td className="py-2 text-right text-orange-400">
|
||
{month.btcSweep > 0 ? formatCurrency(month.btcSweep) : '-'}
|
||
</td>
|
||
<td className="py-2 text-right">{formatCurrency(month.endCapital)}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-2 text-right text-orange-400">{formatCurrency(month.btcHoldings)}</td>
|
||
<td className="py-2 text-right font-bold">{formatCurrency(month.netWorth)}</td>
|
||
</tr>
|
||
))}
|
||
</tbody>
|
||
</table>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Data Foundation */}
|
||
<div className="bg-gray-800 rounded-lg p-6 mb-8 border border-blue-500/30">
|
||
<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-4 text-blue-400">🔬 Data Foundation</h2>
|
||
<div className="grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 className="text-lg font-semibold mb-2">ML v11.2 Backtest Results</h3>
|
||
<ul className="space-y-1 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li>• <span className="text-green-400 font-semibold">44 trades</span> over 8 days</li>
|
||
<li>• <span className="text-green-400 font-semibold">84.09% win rate</span></li>
|
||
<li>• <span className="text-green-400 font-semibold">3.061 profit factor</span></li>
|
||
<li>• Extrapolated: ~176%/mo raw</li>
|
||
<li>• Base case: 70%/mo (conservative)</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
<div>
|
||
<h3 className="text-lg font-semibold mb-2">Pyramiding Configuration</h3>
|
||
<ul className="space-y-1 text-gray-300">
|
||
<li>• Base leverage: <span className="text-purple-400 font-semibold">7x</span></li>
|
||
<li>• Stack leverage: <span className="text-purple-400 font-semibold">7x</span></li>
|
||
<li>• Max total: <span className="text-purple-400 font-semibold">14x</span></li>
|
||
<li>• Max pyramid levels: <span className="text-purple-400 font-semibold">2</span></li>
|
||
<li>• Window: 4 hours (48 bars)</li>
|
||
</ul>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Risk Disclaimer */}
|
||
<div className="bg-red-900/20 rounded-lg p-6 border border-red-500/30">
|
||
<h2 className="text-xl font-semibold mb-2 text-red-400">⚠️ Important Disclaimer</h2>
|
||
<p className="text-gray-300 text-sm">
|
||
These projections are based on backtested results and are NOT guaranteed. Past performance does not
|
||
guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. The projections
|
||
assume consistent market conditions and strategy performance, which may not occur. Only trade with
|
||
capital you can afford to lose.
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
{/* Footer */}
|
||
<div className="mt-8 text-center text-gray-500 text-sm">
|
||
<p>Strategy: ML v11.2 + Pyramiding | Exchange: MEXC (SOL/USDT Perp)</p>
|
||
<p className="mt-1">Last Updated: January 2026</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)
|
||
}
|